The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Packers and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.25 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 23.8 | 14 | Points/Gm | 27 | 8 |
| 22.5 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 20.2 | 9 |
| 66.2 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 10 |
| 58.2 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 19 |
| 5.7 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 4 |
| 4.8 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 39.80% | 23 | Rush% | 51.30% | 4 |
| 60.20% | 10 | Pass% | 48.70% | 29 |
| 42.98% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 40.53% | 9 |
| 57.02% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 59.47% | 24 |
- The Packers average 3.8 passing plays per game of 20 or more yards, tied for the most in the league with San Francisco.
- Houston is averaging 3.2 passing plays per game of 20 or more yards, 8th in the league.
- 82.4% (14-of-17) of the Green Bay touchdowns have been passing touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- 75% (12-of-16) of the touchdowns allowed by Houston have been passing, the 4th-highest rate in the league.
- 71.4% (10-of-14) of the touchdowns allowed by Green Bay have been passing touchdowns, the 5th-highest rate in the league.
- Houston has converted 75% (12-of-16) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, 2nd in the league behind the Ravens.
- Green Bay averages 5.5 sacks plus takeaways per game, 2nd in the NFL.
- Green Bay allows 2.6 sacks plus turnovers per game on offense, which is 3rd in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love had a strong performance on Sunday, completing a season-high 68.8% (22-of-32) of his passes for 258 yards (8.1 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Ending the week as QB3 (25.6 points), Love has delivered three QB1 scoring weeks over his four starts, and his low week was only QB14.
Going back to last year, he has had one of the best blends of ceiling paired with a high floor at the quarterback position.
Love has finished in the back half of weekly scoring just three times since the start of last season.
That keeps Love in play as a weekly QB1, while this game has plenty of potential to be a shootout.
Houston has been a mixed bag defensively to open the year.
They have only allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt (3rd) while allowing a league-low 53.3% completion rate.
However, Houston is 25th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.458). They have allowed a 6.7% touchdown rate (29th) and 11.6 yards per completion (26th) when passes have been completed.
Throwing touchdowns is what Love does.
He leads the NFL with an 8.2% touchdown rate and has thrown 5.2 touchdowns over expectations (did you see his second touchdown to Romeo Doubs last week?).
While that rate is undoubtedly set to come down, Love was 5th in the NFL with a 5.5% touchdown rate in 2023.
He is building out an extended sample of outproducing his touchdown expectations.
Houston excelled when it got pressure on the quarterback, which they must do here.
When pressuring the opposing passer, Houston has allowed a 29.4% completion rate (2nd), 3.6 Y/A (2nd), and a first down or touchdown on 15.7% of those attempts (1st).
When under pressure, Love has completed 40.9% of his passes (29th) and had a 6.8% interception rate (28th).
CJ Stroud: Stroud only has one QB1 scoring week through six games.
While his ceiling is not as high as Love’s, Stroud has a solid floor, closing just one week lower than QB16.
Stroud is still a sturdy option on the QB1 line, and this game offers high-scoring potential for added upside.
Stroud threw a season-high 3 touchdowns on Sunday, but he threw for a season-low 192 yards and 6.2 yards per pass attempt in his first game without Nico Collins.
He has now had 257 dropbacks with Collins off the field since the start of last season, completing 60.5% of his passes for 8 Y/A, a 3.5% touchdown rate, and a 90.4 rating.
With Collins on the field, Stroud had completed 67.2% of his passes for 8.1 Y/A, a 5.3% touchdown rate, and a 105.3 rating.
The Green Bay defense is another boom-or-bust pass defense predicated on pressure and causing havoc.
When Green Bay pressured the opposing passer, they allowed a 50.9% completion rate (20th), 4.7 Y/A (8th), and 0% touchdown rate (1st).
Without pressure, they have allowed a 69.5% completion rate (12th), 8.1 Y/A (25th), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (29th).
This game goes south and underwhelms if both defenses are getting home with pressure.
The other element in play for Stroud is that the return of Joe Mixon could make the Texans more run-heavy, paired with Collins's absence (more on that in a bit).
Running Back
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More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Saints | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bucs | Monday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Cardinals | Monday Night Football |
