Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season brings us a highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl LVIII as the Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) travel to Levi's Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers (3-3).
This clash of NFL titans not only pits two of the league's most dynamic offenses against each other but also presents an intriguing betting landscape for sharp analysts.
As we dissect both the point spread and the over/under, we'll consider how the Chiefs' stellar defense and the 49ers' offensive firepower might shape the outcome.
We'll also explore how recent struggles for both teams could impact the game's flow and final score.
Whether you're leaning towards the spread or eyeing the total, this breakdown aims to provide the insights needed to make informed wagers on this Super Bowl rematch.
Week 7 Best Bet Prediction: Chiefs at 49ers Under 47
Patrick Mahomes has been uncharacteristically inefficient to start the 2024 season, throwing just 6 touchdowns against 6 interceptions in five games.
If Kansas City relies on their defense and settles for field goals rather than touchdowns, it could keep the total score low.
A significant factor in the Chiefs' offensive woes is their red zone inefficiency.
Mahomes himself acknowledged the need to “finish with touchdowns in the red zone,” indicating an awareness of their tendency to settle for field goals.
The Chiefs rank 25th in red zone touchdown percentage, which could result in longer, more methodical drives that consume clock without necessarily adding many points.
Coaching strategy is another consideration.
Andy Reid is coming off a bye week where he boasts an impressive 12-4 record and might employ a conservative, clock-controlling approach to secure a win. This strategy could naturally lead to fewer possessions and, consequently, fewer points scored.
Given the Chiefs' strong defensive performance (allowing only 17 points per game), a more conservative offensive game plan could complement their defensive efforts.
This balanced approach lends itself to the likelihood of the total falling under 47 points.
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Week 7 Prediction: Chiefs +1.5 at 49ers
The Chiefs defense has been smothering opponents to start the season, allowing only 17.0 points per game and conceding 21+ points just once in their first five games.
Their cornerback duo of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson has excelled, allowing a combined quarterback rating of just 77.34 when targeted.
This has contributed to Kansas City's effective pass defense, which has allowed the eighth-lowest completion rate (62.5%) in the league.
Kansas City's run defense has been particularly impressive, limiting top running backs like Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and Alvin Kamara to a combined 103 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry.
Coupled with the NFL's second-highest blitz rate (34.2%), the Chiefs have a dominant defense that's now catching points.
This strong run defense could be crucial against the 49ers, who rank third in rushing yards per game (158.0) and seventh in yards per carry (5.0).
However, with Christian McCaffrey out and Jordan Mason questionable, San Francisco's ground game may be compromised.
If the Chiefs can contain the run, their aggressive blitz approach could pressure Brock Purdy, who has shown vulnerability against the blitz.
Three of Purdy's 4 interceptions this season have come when blitzed.
While Purdy has demonstrated improvement against pressure, his regular season stats through five games suggest that blitzing remains an effective strategy to force errors.
Given the Chiefs' defensive strengths, particularly against the run, and the advantage of coming off a bye week, Kansas City looks appealing as a short road underdog.
Week 7 Prediction: Ravens -3.5 at Buccaneers
The Ravens have dominated the Buccaneers, winning five straight matchups — their longest active streak against any team. This historical edge sets the tone for Sunday's clash.
Baltimore's offense is a juggernaut, leading the NFL with 453 yards per game.
Their balanced attack keeps defenses guessing, but it's their ground game that truly shines.
The Ravens have gashed the Bucs for 140 rushing yards per game in their last seven meetings and currently lead the league with a staggering 205 rushing yards per game.
Lamar Jackson continues to dazzle, amassing 1,529 passing yards with 10 touchdowns while adding 403 yards and 2 scores on the ground.
His 5-0 record against NFC South teams, with a 65% completion rate and 65 rushing yards per game average, speaks volumes.
Paired with Derrick “King” Henry, the NFL's leading rusher known for his efficiency and big-play ability, Baltimore's offense seems unstoppable.
Tampa Bay's defense looks ill-equipped to handle this onslaught.
Ranking 24th in opponent yards per carry and 28th in opponent rushing touchdown percentage, the Bucs' run defense is a glaring weakness against Baltimore's league-best ground attack.
The Ravens' offensive firepower, combined with Jackson's dual-threat capabilities, should expose multiple vulnerabilities in the Bucs' defense, making the -3.5 spread an attractive bet.
