As we delve into the intriguing world of player props for Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season, two compelling narratives emerge that warrant closer examination: Hunter Henry's evolving role in the Patriots offense and a bold moneyline parlay featuring the underdog New Orleans Saints and Patriots.
Hunter Henry has become a focal point in the Patriots' passing game, particularly with Drake Maye under center, making his receiving yardage and longest reception props enticing options for savvy bettors.
Simultaneously, the Saints and Patriots present a tantalizing longshot parlay opportunity against the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets, respectively.
Both teams are poised to exploit their opponent's vulnerabilities, offering substantial value for those willing to embrace calculated risk.
In this analysis, I’ll explore how these player props and team dynamics can align to create profitable betting scenarios.
Week 8 Prediction: Hunter Henry Over 33.5 receiving yards & Longest Reception Over 16.5
Hunter Henry has been a reliable target in the Patriots offense, averaging 45 receiving yards per game this season. His consistent yardage production makes him a strong candidate to surpass his receiving yardage props.
Since Drake Maye took over as the starting quarterback, the Patriots have shown a willingness to push the ball downfield, attempting 24 passes in the medium to deep range.
Plus, Henry's role in the offense has increased significantly.
Over the last two games, Henry has enjoyed a 20% target share, averaging 5.5 receptions and 66.5 receiving yards. Maye frequently looks to Henry, providing ample opportunities for him to accumulate receiving yards.
The Jets have shown some susceptibility to tight ends this season, allowing an average of nearly 40 receiving yards per game and 7.5 yards per target (16th in the league).
This trend suggests that Henry could find opportunities to exploit gaps in the Jets defense.
These factors make Henry well-equipped to exceed 33.5 receiving yards against the Jets.
His reliable hands and ability to gain separation make him a prime candidate for longer receptions, especially when defenses focus on other threats.
Among tight ends, Henry's 11.6 yards per reception rank seventh in the league, creating a favorable scenario for him to achieve both a reception over 16.5 yards and over 33.5 total receiving yards against the Jets.
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Week 8 Longshot Prediction: Saints and Patriots moneyline parlay (+1270)
I don’t back underdogs unless I think they can win.
The Chargers have been hindered by one of the worst passing offenses in the league, largely due to a lack of dynamic pass-catching weapons and an underperforming offensive line.
This could limit their scoring ability against a Saints team looking to capitalize on any offensive inefficiencies.
Despite recent struggles, the Saints have shown they can score in bunches, and now will get some help with key players returning from injury. They have the potential to exploit any defensive lapses by the Chargers who tend to “Charger” in the fourth game of games.
The Jets, while boasting a strong overall defense, have notable weaknesses in their secondary and interior defensive line. These areas can be exploited by the Patriots, especially with Drake Maye at quarterback, who has shown flashes of potential in his brief appearances.
The Patriots have an opportunity to break their losing streak with Maye providing a fresh dynamic to their offense, while Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having his own struggles with battling injuries while building a connection with his receiving corps.
This is a longshot that has merit. Low risk. High reward. One of my favorite quotes from my poker days: “You can’t win if you fold.”
