As we dive into Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season, the betting landscape offers intriguing opportunities with matchups that could sway both spreads and totals.
This week, we turn our focus to three games: the New Orleans Saints visiting the Los Angeles Chargers, the New England Patriots facing off against the New York Jets, and the Carolina Panthers traveling to take on the Denver Broncos.
These games not only highlight key betting lines but also offer insights into how team dynamics and player performances might influence outcomes as we approach midseason.
Week 8 Best Bet Prediction: Saints +7.5 at Chargers
The Saints are entering this matchup with a significant advantage, coming off a mini-bye week after playing last on a Thursday night.
This extra rest has allowed them to recover and prepare thoroughly for the Chargers.
Importantly, they welcome back key players such as TE Taysom Hill, RG Cesar Ruiz, LB Pete Werner, and WR Chris Olave.
The previous game against Denver, which ended in a 33-10 loss, resembled more of a preseason matchup due to the absence of these critical players and the reliance on rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler without adequate support.
With these players returning, the Saints' offense and defense gain much-needed depth across the board.
Hill's versatility as a runner, passer, and receiver adds a dynamic element to the offense, offering powerful runs and reliable options in various scenarios.
The return of Ruiz bolsters the offensive line, enhancing both protection schemes and run-blocking capabilities.
Olave's presence provides Rattler with more downfield options, helping to stretch the field against a Chargers secondary that has shown vulnerabilities.
The Chargers defense has been inconsistent, allowing Justin Fields to complete 25 of 32 passes and conceding 6.2 yards per carry to Arizona.
Particularly concerning are their fourth-quarter struggles, often referred to as “Chargering,” which have been a recurring issue throughout the 2024 season.
Los Angeles has faced significant challenges with clock management and decision-making in critical moments.
For instance, against the Kansas City Chiefs, poor clock management by head coach Jim Harbaugh led to ineffective use of timeouts and missed opportunities to stop the clock, ultimately costing them a chance to mount a comeback.
The Chargers have also developed a reputation for heartbreakingly losing games in the final moments, such as their loss to the Cardinals on a last-second field goal.
Their red zone inefficiency is notable, with only 38% of opportunities converted into touchdowns, ranking them 30th in the league.
This inefficiency has contributed to their inability to build or maintain leads late in games and has resulted in being ranked 28th in fourth-quarter scoring.
Over their last four games, they've been outscored 43-10 and shut out in three of those quarters.
Note: Backing the Saints in the fourth quarter on the live line is worth considering.
By focusing on these specific weaknesses of the Chargers — particularly their red zone struggles and poor fourth-quarter performances — the Saints, now reinforced with returning talent, have a strong opportunity not just to cover the +7.5 spread but potentially win outright (+280).
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Week 8 Prediction: Patriots +7 vs. Jets
The Jets are not okay.
Despite acquiring star receiver Davante Adams, the offense was not able to immediately capitalize on his presence. In Week 7, Adams was targeted 9 times but only managed 3 receptions for 30 yards.
There are inefficiencies in the passing game with Aaron Rodgers behind center. The team is struggling to find its identity even after the firing of head coach Robert Saleh, which has further destabilized their offensive strategy.
Now Rodgers enters this matchup with some injury concerns.
He’s been dealing with a low-ankle sprain, which has affected his mobility and performance on the field. Despite not missing any snaps, he was noticeably hobbled during a recent game against the Vikings.
He’s also dealing with a hamstring and knee injury.
These injuries could affect his performance even further after throwing 6 interceptions in his last three games alone, more than halfway to his career-high of 13 interceptions in a season.
These turnovers have been costly for the Jets, contributing to their losing streak of four straight losses. His discomfort in the pocket and hesitance to throw downfield has been noted.
I’ve liked what I’ve seen in Drake Maye’s two starts.
In his first start against the Texans, Maye threw for 3 touchdowns, the highest for any Patriots quarterback in a single game since Bailey Zappe in December 2023. This gave him the team lead in passing touchdowns for the season, surpassing Jacoby Brissett‘s total from five starts.
He has also showcased his ability to throw deep with a perfectly thrown 40-yard touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte. This was one of New England's longest passing touchdowns since Tom Brady left the team, showcasing Maye's arm strength and potential to unlock the deep threat in the Patriots' offense.
Beyond his passing skills, Maye also contributed on the ground, rushing for 54 yards on eight carries in his two starts. His mobility adds an extra dimension to his game, allowing him to extend plays and gain yards with his legs when necessary.
The Jets have notable weaknesses in their defense, allowing 9.0 yards per pass to Russell Wilson in his first game back since December 2023.
The Jets have several injuries in their secondary. Maye can take advantage of these weaknesses by targeting these areas with precise passing while utilizing his mobility to escape pressure and make plays on the run.
By leveraging Maye's strengths and capitalizing on the Jets' current vulnerabilities, the Patriots have a viable path to cover the +7 spread against New York and potentially shock the league by winning outright (+275).
Week 8 Prediction: Panthers at Broncos Under 42
Bryce Young is back as a starter for Carolina.
He has faced significant challenges in his sophomore year, struggling with efficiency. He averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt in his four games played, the worst in the league.
In his first two games of the season, Young had difficulty moving the ball effectively, as evidenced by his 3 combined interceptions.
The Panthers offense has been unable to generate consistent scoring opportunities, which limits their potential to contribute significantly to the total points.
The Broncos have the second-best defensive grade. Their ability to control the game through solid defensive play and an effective running game minimizes the need for high-scoring shootouts.
The Broncos have demonstrated their defensive strength by limiting opponents' scoring opportunities (first in opponent red zone scoring percentage), even more of a benefit against a struggling Panthers offense.
Denver's offensive strategy with Bo Nix involves focusing more on ball control and time management, which tends to result in lower-scoring games as they prioritize maintaining possession over aggressive scoring.
Among qualifying quarterbacks, Nix is 29th of 32 in yards per pass attempt (5.6) with as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns (5). 3 of those interceptions have come from the deep ball attempts, the second-most interceptions from 20-plus yards.
Both teams are likely to engage in a game characterized by limited scoring opportunities, making it probable that the total points will fall under 42.
