The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Vikings and Colts on Sunday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Spread | -6.0 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 25.75 | ||
| 21.9 | 19 | Points/Gm | 26.9 | 7 |
| 21.5 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 19.6 | 9 |
| 59.1 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 56.7 | 32 |
| 67.9 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 30 |
| 5.5 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 11 |
| 5.6 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 7 |
| 45.67% | 14 | Rush% | 46.60% | 13 |
| 54.33% | 19 | Pass% | 53.40% | 20 |
| 49.91% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 32.69% | 1 |
| 50.09% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 67.31% | 32 |
- After averaging 2.32 points per drive over their opening four games (9th), Minnesota has averaged 1.79 points per drive since (21st).
- The Vikings scored a touchdown on 15.2% of their drives in October (26th) after a 27.7% rate in September (7th).
- The Colts have a 35.0% success rate on passing plays, the lowest rate in the league.
- Minnesota has a 44.8% success rate on passing plays, 12th in the league.
- 77.8% (14-of-18) of Minnesota's touchdowns have been passing, the second-highest rate in the league.
- 82.4% (14-of-17) of the touchdowns allowed by Minnesota have been passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 17.6% of Indianapolis' runs have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Minnesota has the highest success rate defensively against running plays (69.7%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: We knew Darnold would slow down a bit in the touchdown department, but even with some expected regression in that area, he has held a high fantasy floor and remained efficient.
Darnold has a 3.6% touchdown rate over his past three games after a 10.4% rate to open the year, but he has still posted 8.2 yards per attempt over that span, which is ninth in the league.
Darnold only has one week finishing lower than QB15 in weekly scoring, making him a high-end QB2 capable of running into spike weeks when the touchdowns do come.
This is a good matchup to chase passing efficiency.
We know what Gus Bradley prefers to do.
The Colts play man coverage on only 15.5% of passing plays (29th) and run a high rate of Cover 3 (43.8%) and Cover 2 (16.2%) for the bulk of passing snaps.
Those rates are fourth and 12th in the league.
Darnold has blazed Cover 3 looks this season, completing 75.5% (40-of-53) of his passes (6th) for 8.6 Y/A (9th).
Against Cover 2 he leads the NFL with 13.1 Y/A.
The Colts are 20th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.444) and are 24th in pressure rate (29.7%).
Joe Flacco: The Colts are turning the offense back over to Flacco this week.
The Colts have a 41.7% success rate on passing plays with Flacco in the game this season compared to a 29.6% success rate with Anthony Richardson in the game on passing plays.
In his two starts earlier this season, Flacco finished as QB4 (26.6 points) against the Jaguars and QB19 (13.7 points) versus the Titans.
This is a decent spot for Flacco and this passing game due to the volume of pass attempts that Minnesota has faced this season.
The Vikings face a league-high 41.1 pass attempts per game.
They are 13th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.395), but because they face so many passes, they are 28th in passing points allowed per game (16.2).
Minnesota has allowed quarterbacks to stack passing points based on volume and efficiency of late.
The Vikings have allowed QB1 scoring weeks to Jordan Love (28.2 points), Jared Goff (18.8 points), and Matthew Stafford (24.8 points) over their past four games.
Love got there through volume, but Goff and Stafford threw for 11.2 Y/A and 8.2 Y/A.
Aaron Rodgers also sandwiched in a 2 touchdown game over that span, making it four straight games that the Vikings have allowed multiple passing touchdowns.
Flacco is a volume-based QB2 with a path to upside if he is efficient.
The one concern is handling the blitzes that Brian Flores is going to throw at him.
The Vikings blitz on 40.3% of the dropbacks, second in the league.
Against the blitz on his limited sample this season, Flacco is 11-of-23 (47.8%) for just 3.3 yards per pass attempt.
Running Back
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More Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Texans @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
