As we approach Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season, two intriguing matchups stand out: the Denver Broncos visiting the Baltimore Ravens, and the Dallas Cowboys traveling to face the Atlanta Falcons.
Both games feature teams with playoff aspirations and storylines that could shape the remainder of their seasons.
The Broncos, led by rookie sensation Bo Nix, look to continue their impressive turnaround against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' high-powered offense.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys aim to bounce back from recent struggles as they take on a Falcons team that has shown flashes of brilliance.
In this analysis, we'll dive deep into the key factors, matchups, and betting angles that could determine the outcomes of these pivotal contests.
Week 9 Best Bet Prediction: Cowboys at Falcons Under 52
Let’s first mention the poor starts.
The Cowboys have been struggling to score early in games, managing just 2 touchdowns in the first quarter through seven games. They have scored only 6 touchdowns total in first halves this season.
This slow-starting tendency could lead to fewer overall points.
How about the lack of a running game?
The Cowboys' rushing (not so much of an) attack has been ineffective, averaging only 74 rush yards per game, the worst mark in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle have a combined 395 yards. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has 501 yards. Even Washington (rookie) quarterback Jayden Daniels has more (424).
This one-dimensional offense struggles to sustain drives and score points.
Then there’s the lack of receiving depth. Beyond CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys don't have consistent receiving options.
With Brandin Cooks on injured reserve, there's a lack of proven playmakers in the passing game, limiting big plays and scoring opportunities. After Lamb (72), TE Jake Ferguson has the most targets (42), and he missed a game.
With a poor running game, and no options in the receiving corps, the offense becomes more predictable, allowing defenses to focus on stopping the pass, leading to more incompletions (most in the league), sacks (eighth most), and turnovers (third most).
To have a total this high, with an offense this ineffective?
These weaknesses combined with the Cowboys' defensive struggles (particularly against the run), could result in a lower-scoring game against the Falcons, keeping the total under 52.5 points.
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Week 9 Prediction: Broncos +9.5 at Ravens
Are the Broncos good? They are definitely improving.
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been gaining confidence and playing well recently. In October, he completed 67% of his passes for 870 yards with a 7:1 touchdown/interception ratio and added 149 rushing yards.
Nix has shown better judgment in his reads and progressions, making quicker decisions and avoiding forced throws, which is evident in his low interception rate over the past month.
His pocket presence has blossomed, showing improved awareness and contributing to Denver's league-lowest sack rate of 3.7% per dropback.
Nix is getting better at sensing pressure and either getting rid of the ball quickly or using his mobility to avoid sacks.
Improvements in Nix's play, beyond just the numbers, have been key factors in the Broncos' recent success and their 5-3 record after a 0-2 start to the season.
These improvements are coming at the right time. The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season, presenting a significant opportunity for Nix.
However, Baltimore has the No. 1 run defense, which might force the Broncos to rely more on Nix's arm.
This could lead to more passing opportunities against the Ravens' vulnerable secondary. Against which I would trust Nix. A scary statement.
Although Nix will face a tough test against the Ravens' pass rush, their vulnerability to the pass gives an opportunity for him to have a solid performance. The key for Nix will be to exploit the Ravens' secondary while avoiding turnovers and managing pressure from their pass rush.
And if I trust Nix, I trust the Broncos defense even more. The Broncos rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This elite defense can help keep the game close against Baltimore's high-powered offense.
Week 9 Prediction: Broncos at Ravens Over 44.5
Nix has really dialed things up.
What if I told you, the rookie is second in deep ball attempts (37)? The fact that Nix even has that many tells me that the Broncos' coaching staff is comfortable with an aggressive, vertical passing game.
His high number of attempts combined with his relatively low completion percentage on those throws (38%) could actually contribute to the game going over 44.5 points against the Ravens.
Facing the league’s worst secondary, Nix could have more success, encouraged to continue his aggressive deep passing strategy and potentially leading to more successful completions than Nix's season average.
Those completed passes often result in significant yardage and potential touchdowns. Even just a couple of successful deep shots could quickly add points to the scoreboard.
While this might seem counterintuitive, Denver's strong defense (ranked No. 1 in yards per play allowed) could force the Ravens to be more aggressive offensively, potentially leading to more scoring opportunities for both teams.
If the Broncos have early success with the passing game, it could force the Ravens to respond with their own aggressive offensive strategy, potentially turning the game into a high-scoring affair.
Both teams have the offensive capabilities to put points on the board, and the matchup dynamics could contribute to the total going over 44.5 points.
