Week 9 brought a lesson of variance and process vs. results as I had mentioned DeVonta Smith as a potential sit candidate.
Smith ended up with 87 yards and a touchdown when looking at the final box score, but he required an A.J. Brown injury to get to this point.
With Brown in the game, Smith was targeted once for a 4.5% target per route rate, but he became the go to guy once the Eagles imploded and allowed the Jaguars back into the game.
Fantasy football is a game that has a ton of variance which is out of gamers' control, and it’s important to remember that situations change frequently even in game.
Week 10 Fantasy Football Starts:
| Week 10 Starts | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | QB | 49ers |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | Giants |
| Jordan Addison | WR | Vikings |
| Taysom HIll | TE | Saints |
Week 10 Fantasy Football Sits:
| Week 10 Sits | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | QB | Patriots |
| David Montgomery | RB | Lions |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | Brocnos |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | Lions |
Quarterback Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Brock Purdy in Week 10
The return of Christian McCaffrey and a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers provide Purdy with fantasy upside, and he is a locked in start in Week 10.
Not only does Purdy gain McCaffrey as an offensive weapon, but George Kittle is off the injury report while Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel are trending to play.
The Buccaneers are fantasy gamers' favorite team, providing a great environment for fantasy points, and as a result have allowed four of the past five opposing quarterbacks to finish in the top three of fantasy scoring including Patrick Mahomes‘ best fantasy game in the past calendar year on Monday.
The 49ers offense should have no problem scoring this week, and should the Buccaneers be able to push back, Purdy has the highest scoring fantasy quarterback in his range of outcomes in Week 10.
Honorable Mention: Matthew Stafford
Buy the Rams offense when Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua are all healthy. That is the case against a Dolphins team that has underperformed expectations this season.
Since the beginning of 2023, the Rams have averaged 5.5 yards and 0.04 EPA per play overall. With all three of Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua on the field, the offense averages 6.3 yards and 0.13 EPA per play.
Although Stafford is not mobile, he averages 0.5 fantasy points per dropback with Kupp and Nacua on the field compared to 0.3 fantasy points per dropback if either or both are not on the field since the start of 2023.
Sit Drake Maye in Week 10
Maye is a 22-year-old rookie quarterback on a team with the worst offensive line, a unit that ranks dead last in both of ESPN’s run block and pass block win rate, yet Maye has exceeded fantasy expectations.
The arrow is pointing up on Maye for fantasy and as a real-life quarterback, but this is a difficult week for the rookie.
The Bears are incredibly tough against the pass, allowing a league low 9.2 passing points per game as mentioned in Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, which lowers Maye’s ceiling this week.
Running back Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Tyrone Tracy Jr. in Week 10
The Carolina Panthers allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, setting up a great fantasy role for Tracy in Germany and making him a start in Week 10.
Brian Daboll deserves some credit as the theory of logical coaching rarely exists, but Daboll has leaned on the rookie running back over Devin Singletary.
Tracy has eclipsed 17 or more touches in the past four games despite Singletary playing in three of those, which bodes well for the rookie moving forward.
He faces a Panthers defense which is historically bad and allowed a league high 15 touchdowns to running backs this year.
A safe fantasy floor combined with a monster ceiling this week; Tracy Jr. is a must start.
Honorable Mention: Chuba Hubbard
Many organizations that just spent second-round draft capital on a running back would have traded a pending free agent in a break-out season, but the Panthers extended Hubbard to a contract that expires after Jonathan Brooks’ contract.
Unfortunately for the Brooks drafters (I’m talking about myself), Hubbard we remain a big part of the offense this season. Brooks was always going to have a slow integration into the offense, and he will likely take Miles Sanders‘ role and Hubbard will remain the lead back.
All signs point to Hubbard having enough volume to remain a viable fantasy option in Week 10.
Sit David Montgomery in Week 10
It’s difficult to bet against Ben Johnson and this Lions offense this year, but if there is a spot where Montgomery could be a fantasy bust, it’s against the Texans in Week 10, which makes him a sit candidate.
The Texans run defense has been excellent this season, ranking in the top 10 at 4.2 yards per rush and 1.03 yards before contact against running back rushes allowed.
Although Montgomery is not as dynamic of a pass catcher as Jahmyr Gibbs, the veteran has averaged 2 receptions per game, but the Texans are elite against running backs in the passing game, allowing 3.1 receptions and 4.9 yards per attempt on passes to running backs.
If Montgomery does not find the end zone, in all likelihood it will be a disappointing fantasy week.
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Wide Receiver Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Jordan Addison in Week 10
It’s hard to keep up with Addison’s off the field and social media news, however, last year's 23rd-overall draft pick is set up for a solid Week 10 against the Jaguars and is a start candidate.
The Jaguars give up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and secondary wide receivers have had success. Outside of Tyson Campbell, the cornerbacks struggle to play the aggressive man coverage defense the Jaguars utilize.
This is a great matchup for the sophomore receiver, who can have a game similar to that of Jameson Williams in Week 1 with explosive plays and a touchdown.
Honorable Mention: Jaylen Waddle
Unfortunately for the Waddle drafters, anytime an early pick stays healthy and struggles, a Week 10 spike game may be a little too late.
Waddle has been targeted on 16.5% of his routes this season combined with the poor quarterback play without Tua Tagovailoa, resulting in Waddle being the worst fantasy pick in the first 10 weeks of the season.
Waddle should see some positive regression in targets and faces the Rams in a game with two potentially good offenses and two potentially poor defenses.
It may be a bit too late, but Waddle should be a startable contributor to fantasy lineups in Week 10.
Sit Courtland Sutton in Week 10
After a great week including a touchdown throw to Bo Nix, Sutton may be best let on fantasy benches as a sit in Week 10.
The Chiefs provide a much different opponent than the Ravens as the two teams are on the opposite side of the spectrum in terms of success against outside wide receivers.
The Chiefs are second in both catch rate and yards per target to outside wide receivers as Trent McDuffie has earned a shout out moving from the slot to the outside.
Sutton could continue to ride the better in best ball rollercoaster this week against the Chiefs.
I was originally going to slot Quentin Johnston in the sit category as the Titans have forced quarterbacks to throw quickly, which has led to slot receivers getting the most work, but Johnston has been targeted on 40% of his routes when Justin Herbert throws in under 2.3 seconds. What looks like a poor matchup becomes intriguing as Herbert has relied on Johnston in situations where he’s thrown quickly.
Tight End Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Taysom Hill in Week 10
As the entire Saints wide receiver room deals with injuries, the door is open for Hill to be a weekly fantasy contributor, making him a start in Week 10.
What Hill’s role will be is difficult to determine, but the arrow is pointing up as he played a season high in snaps last week.
He also hit the trifecta of being involved as a passer, rusher, and receiver.
Hill scored a rushing touchdown, vaulting him up to a top-five tight end scorer last week.
With Chris Olave out and backup running back Kendre Miller spite IR’ed by Dennis Allen, Hill will have a role in both the running and passing game again this week, which provides a nice floor with some touchdown upside.
Honorable Mention: Chigoziem Okonkwo
“Chiggy” has at least 4 targets in three consecutive games and could continue to see his usage increase with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins.
Without Hopkins on the field, his target share has ticked down, but he’s averaging more yards per route as the targets have been more than double in air yards, generating bigger plays.
Okonkwo faces the Chargers, who are a tight end funnel this season. 26.2% of the targets against them have been to tight ends, well above the 20.7% league average.
Sit Sam LaPorta in Week 10
Raymond Summerlin nailed the offseason analysis of LaPorta, who is frustrating gamers who reached on the tight end.
LaPorta has disappointed because he has played every game and most likely been in the starting fantasy lineup each week, but I’d consider looking for an alternative option this week.
The Texans have been a wide receiver funnel in terms of targets and success (see last week Davante Adams/Garrett Wilson) and have stymied opposing tight ends.
Houston has allowed a 53.3% completion rate to opposing tight ends. The next closest defense is 62.3%, and the league average is 73.8%.
As a result, opposing teams are targeting the position on 16.2% of passes, a bottom-five rate in the league. That correlates with the Texans allowing the fewest points to opposing tight ends.
With the return of Jameson Williams and the Texans unlikely to get Nico Collins back (worse fantasy environment), I’m unsure what the ceiling outcome for LaPorta is in Week 10 and would sit him in fantasy football.
