The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Packers and Bears.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 17.25 | ||
| 25.6 | 9 | Points/Gm | 19.4 | 24 |
| 21.6 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 18.6 | 7 |
| 63.4 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 7 |
| 60.4 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 12 |
| 6.1 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.3 | 31 |
| 5.3 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 49.04% | 8 | Rush% | 42.53% | 21 |
| 50.96% | 25 | Pass% | 57.47% | 12 |
| 44.12% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 45.57% | 20 |
| 55.88% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 54.43% | 13 |
- Chicago has not scored first in any game this season, the only team in the league.
- The Packers have scored first in 7 of their 9 games this season, tied for second in the league.
- The Bears have a -12 sack differential versus their opponents since their Week 7 bye, the worst in the league.
- The Packers rank 8th in set of downs to reach third down (42.0%) and 3rd in the rate of reaching 3rd and long (16.3%).
- The Bears are 28th in set of downs to reach third down (51.5%) and 29th in the rate of reaching 3rd and long (26.6%).
- Chicago is 31st in third down conversion rate (28.7%).
- 16.0% of Chicago's plays on offense have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the NFL.
- The Packers have forced a turnover on 18.4% of opponent possessions, second in the league.
- The Bears have allowed a 37.0% red zone conversion rate (10-of-27), the lowest rate in the league.
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Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love had a rocky first half of the season.
He missed time with a knee injury that cost him two games and dealt with a groin injury heading into the bye, which was an issue in their last game against the Lions.
He has been volatile.
Love has completed just 61.3% of his passes (31st) and is 28th in completion rate versus expectations (-1.3%).
His 4.2% interception rate is ahead of only Will Levis.
Love has had his most significant issues handling the blitz.
He has completed 53.3% of his passes when blitzed, ahead of only Deshaun Watson (52.8%) and Jacoby Brissett (47.6%).
Love averages only 4.8 yards per attempt when blitzed (32nd) compared to 8.9 Y/A when he has not been blitzed (2nd).
But Love also averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt (11th) with a 6.3% touchdown rate (6th).
Love has multiple passing touchdowns in all but one of his complete games.
Love is still a high-floor option on the QB1 line. He has only one complete game in the back half of weekly scoring.
But this is another tough assignment for chasing a spike week.
Chicago is only mid-pack in blitz rate (23.9%) but is No. 1 in points allowed below the opponent’s average entering the matchup (-6.2 points).
The Bears have allowed one QB1 scoring week, and that was a QB11 week to Jayden Daniels, who closed the game with a 62-yard Hail Mary.
Trevor Lawrence is the only quarterback to throw more than one touchdown pass against the Bears.
It has not helped for fantasy that the Bears cannot score right now, which has reduced passing volume.
Caleb Williams: It has been a disaster for the Chicago offense coming out of their Week 7 bye.
Over its past three games, Chicago has scored a touchdown on 2 of 34 (5.9%) drives, the lowest rate in the league.
Over that span, Williams has been the QB28, QB29, and QB26 in weekly scoring,
The team has fired Shane Waldron to shake things up and reignite the talent here, but the state of his offensive line is a significant obstacle.
Coming out of the bye, the Bears have allowed a 62.5% pressure rate to Washington (who was 13th in pressure rate before the matchup), a 42.0% pressure rate to Arizona (who was 30th in pressure rate coming in), and a 39.0% pressure rate to New England (29th before the matchup).
Under pressure this season, Williams has completed a league-low 40.5% of his passes for 4.7 Y/A (30th) with a 32.5% sack rate (34th).
This offense has the talent to keep the door open for a rebound after the coordinator change, but Williams cannot be used as more than a back-end QB2 for desperate gamers.
Running Back
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More Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Eagles | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Texans @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |
