The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Bills and Chiefs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 24 | ||
| 24.3 | 11 | Points/Gm | 29 | 3 |
| 17.9 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 19.3 | 9 |
| 67 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 59.1 | 28 |
| 57.1 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 16 |
| 5.2 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 9 |
| 5.1 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 17 |
| 45.11% | 14 | Rush% | 46.70% | 11 |
| 54.89% | 19 | Pass% | 53.30% | 22 |
| 39.88% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 40.94% | 9 |
| 60.12% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 59.06% | 24 |
- Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 in his career as an underdog.
- Mahomes is 1-3 against Buffalo in the regular season compared to 3-0 in the postseason.
- Every Buffalo home game has exceeded the game total (4-0), the only team in the league.
- Buffalo home games are averaging 55 combined points per game, 2nd in the league.
- The Bills are 3rd in the NFL in points per drive (2.71).
- The Chiefs are 8th (2.39 points per drive).
- 47.1% of the Buffalo drives reach the red zone or score prior, 2nd in the NFL.
- The Chiefs are at 43.8%, 7th in the league.
- The Chiefs have converted a league-high 52% of their third downs. The league average is 38.8%.
- Kansas City has converted a league-high 34.6% of their third and long downs (needing 7 or more yards). The league average is 24%.
- The Chiefs have led for 38.3% of their offensive snaps, 14th in the league.
- Buffalo averages 2.5 more sacks plus takeaways per game than their opponent, 1st in the league.
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Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen only completed 59.5% of his passes and did not throw a passing touchdown last week, but he still found a way to get there for fantasy.
Allen rushed for 50 yards (he had 51 rushing yards over his previous four games) and a touchdown to boost his line and end the week as QB9 (18.2 points).
Allen is running less this season (his 5.5 attempts and 26.1 yards per game are career lows), but it is always good to know that he still has that as a spade to play when needed.
With the state of the Buffalo pass catchers, Allen could be used as a runner again this week.
Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for Sunday.
Amari Cooper has missed the past two games with a wrist injury.
Dalton Kincaid left Sunday’s game with a knee injury.
We will follow the status of Cooper and Kincaid this week, but Allen still found a way to throw for 280 yards last week.
That was indoors against the Colts, who are 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Chiefs are 9th, allowing 6.8 Y/A.
However, Kansas City has been more lenient in recent weeks against the pass.
They have allowed 15 or more fantasy points to four straight quarterbacks.
They have allowed Garnder Minshew, Baker Mayfield, and Bo Nix to complete 75.8% of their passes the past three weeks with multiple passing touchdowns in each game.
These teams are no strangers and have built up an intense rivalry.
Allen has been a top-10 scorer in this matchup in three straight meetings.
In last season’s matchup, he was QB9 (20.5 points) despite throwing for 5.5 Y/A with only 1 touchdown.
That gives us more confidence in Allen as a high-floor QB1, even if his pass catchers are limited.
That is because Allen has run a lot in these matchups.
He has rushed for 32 or more yards in all seven matchups with Steve Spagnuolo.
He has double-digit rushing attempts in each of the past five matchups.
The Chiefs have allowed 3.4 rushing points per game to quarterbacks this season, 19th.
It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs attack Allen.
Kansas City is playing man coverage 33.3% of the time, sixth in the league.
As noted last week, Allen has thrown all 13 touchdowns this season against man coverage (the most in the league).
He is the only quarterback who has started all season without a touchdown pass against zone coverage.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has posted back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks for the first time this season.
Last week’s QB11 week (16.5 points) came as a back-end QB1 in a low-scoring week, but his three highest-scoring games this year have come over the past three weeks.
That fringe QB1 area is still where I have Mahomes this week.
He has yet to throw more than two touchdown passes against the Bills in their regular season matchups.
When these teams played last year, Mahomes was QB20 (13.6 points), throwing for 6.3 Y/A with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.
The Bills have increased their rate of two-high coverage against Mahomes each year, jumping to 45.7% last year.
They already play Cover 2 at the seventh-highest rate in the league this season (18.2%) while ranking 12th in rate of Cover 4 (14.8%) and 8th in Cover 6 (11.5%).
Mahomes is 20th in rating (89.1) against those looks this season.
He is completing 73.7% of his passes (15th) for 7.5 Y/A (18th) with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
The Bills are 10th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.359) and have allowed only one QB1 scorer this season.
Running Back
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More Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Eagles | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Texans @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |
