Browns vs. Steelers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Steelers and Browns on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Russell Wilson: As was the case a year ago when he was with Denver, Wilson has been a tough player to get right week-to-week as a viable option in 1QB formats.

Wilson has QB3 and QB10 scoring weeks against the Jets and Commanders along with QB21 and QB26 scoring weeks against the Giants and Ravens.

Wilson averaged only 6.1 air yards per attempt on Sunday, over two total yards lower than his previous low with the team.

We were looking for Wilson and this passing game to be pressed, but it did not happen.

The Steelers had a 55.4% dropback rate, higher than in previous weeks but only ranked 21st in the league last week.

They were 1% below pass rate expectations.

Pittsburgh is 7% below pass rate expectations in Wilson's four starts.

That dips to 11% below pass rate expectations on first downs.

Not only did Wilson manage the game, but they did not get into the end zone.

Wilson was only 2-of-9 with an interception in the red zone (his turnover came on a rough decision in the end zone).

Wilson has completed 7-of-24 (29.2%) of his red zone passes with Pittsburgh.

He has only made four starts, but that rate is well below his career marks.

His previous low in the red zone is a 43.5% completion rate, which came back in 2016.

It was 48.9% last year with Denver.

Due to the volatility, Wilson is best used as a boom-or-bust QB2 who has to get there via big plays and passing touchdowns over efficiency.

This game has a low total and, depending on how things go at kickoff, could have potential weather concerns.

Outside of that, the Browns have been an utterly boom-or-bust defense themselves.

The Browns have allowed a 61.7% completion rate (fourth) but a league-high 12.7 yards per completion and a 4.8% touchdown rate (20th).

As a byproduct, Cleveland has allowed 14.5 passing points per game, 22nd in the league.

Jameis Winston: From one volatile fantasy option to another.

Winston was effective for fantasy gamers, completing 30-of-46 passes (65.2%) for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns in New Orleans.

Winston closed the week as QB7 (26.6 points), giving him two top 10 scoring weeks over his three games as a starter to go with a QB26 (10.1 points) scoring week to keep us honest, as only Winston can.

The Browns have struggled to run the ball and take leads in games, which has pushed them to throw the rock around in a similar fashion to what we saw them do last season under Joe Flacco.

Winston has thrown the ball 41, 46, and 46 times in his three starts.

The Browns have a league-high 70.3% dropback rate over the weeks with Winston as their starter.

Winston’s two stream-worthy starts in 1QB formats came in stellar matchups on paper while his back-end 2QB scoring week was in a tougher matchup.

This game matches up with the latter, which leaves Winston as a volume-based QB2.

Not only do the Browns have a pedestrian team total paired with any weather concerns that may crop up on Thursday night, but the Pittsburgh defense has been a front-end unit.

Pittsburgh is second in the NFL in passing points allowed per attempt (0.322).

The Steelers have allowed 4.7 fewer points than what quarterbacks have averaged entering the matchup, which is second in the league.

Over the past two weeks, they have limited Jayden Daniels (-11.8 points) and Lamar Jackson (-11.2 points) to point totals well below their averages entering those games.

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Running Back

Najee Harris: Harris ground his way to 63 yards on 18 rushes (3.5 YPC) but added four catches to 30 yards to his total to provide a serviceable RB2 outing in a tough matchup on paper.

Those were the most receptions that Harris has had in a game since Week 3.

With Jaylen Warren entering Sunday with a sore back, Harris ran a route on 46.3% of the dropbacks, his highest rate in a game since Warren returned in Week 6.

He only ran a route on 32.3% of the dropbacks over the previous four games.

Harris could be in a similar spot in a short week to handle another high workload.

He has touched the ball 21 or more times in all four of the starts by Wilson.

That puts him in play as a volume-based RB2 with added touchdown upside.

Cleveland has been in the middle of the pack against running backs.

They have allowed 4.33 yards per carry to backfields (14th), but they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher, limiting backs such as Saquon Barkley (47 yards), Derrick Henry (73 yards), and Alvin Kamara (67 yards) on the ground.

But 50% of their touchdowns allowed have come on the ground (9th-highest).

Nick Chubb: Chubb only touched the ball 11 times for 50 yards on Sunday as the game script wiped him away.

Chubb only had 50% of the backfield touches, which is his lowest rate in a game since returning this season.

With Cleveland chasing points and swerving pass-heavy again, Chubb was out-snapped by Jerome Ford 19-to-9 in the second half.

Since returning in Week 9, Ford has run 58 pass routes (54.7%) compared to 17 for Chubb (16.0%).

Chubb has not logged a week as an RB2 or better in fantasy over his four games played.

With no pass-catching role (he has two catches for 6 yards), Chubb is a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX.

The Steelers have allowed 3.97 YPC to running backs (7th).

If hoping that Chubb can land in the end zone here, 52.9% of the touchdowns allowed by Pittsburgh have been scored by running backs, the third-highest rate in the league.

Wide Receiver

George Pickens: Pickens had a season-high 12 targets on Sunday, catching 8 for 89 yards.

With another gaudy target share on Sunday (37.5%), Pickens is now third among all wide receivers with 29.2% of his team targets this season.

He has 46.6% of the air yards (WR2) and 2.55 yards per route run (WR9).

Pickens has 37.8% of the team's red zone targets (WR3) and 52.4% of the targets thrown into the end zone (WR3).

As noted above, we need Wilson to be better near the end zone, but Pickens has WR1 usage rates.

He is a bit more volatile than some of his peers since the Steelers are so run-heavy and have him running 31.8 routes per game (WR30) under Wilson, but Wilson’s insertion into the lineup has boosted Pickens.

He has been a top-20 scorer in three of his four games with Wilson with two top-five weeks.

He has double-digit PPR points in all four games.

His highest-scoring week over Weeks 1-6 was WR23 with three single-digit scoring games.

Cleveland has only allowed a 58.1% catch rate to wide receivers (4th), but they have allowed a handful of big plays, a league-high 15.6 yards per catch, and a 7.0% touchdown rate (29th) to the position.

Cleveland is playing man coverage on 35.5% of passing plays (4th).

Pickens has 36.1% of the team targets against man coverage under Wilson with 4.13 yards per route run on those snaps.

Cedric Tillman: After three straight WR1 outings, Tillman only pulled in 3-of-8 targets for 47 yards on Sunday.

Tillman's lowest target share (17.8%) over the past four games was paired with his highest rate of inaccurate targets (25%), a cocktail for his lowest-scoring game since the trade of Amari Cooper.

His inaccurate target rate was 3.1% over the previous three games.

Tillman was still on the field for 98% of the dropbacks, so he was still out there plenty.

We have been talking about the potential of Cleveland being a team that has some oscillation among their pass catchers for the rest of the season.

With Winston in the game, Tillman (30 targets), Elijah Moore (30 targets), Jerry Jeudy (34 targets), and David Njoku (26 targets) have relatively flat target dispersal.

Cleveland is throwing the ball 40-plus times per game under Winston, which has allowed everyone to live for fantasy, but all of these pass-catchers are cannibalizing each other a bit. That will show up in weeks with reduced pass volume.

Cleveland may not have many of those games, but they have a lower implied point total here, and Pittsburgh has played the pass well, making Tillman more of a WR3 this week.

The Steelers have only allowed a 57.5% catch rate (4th) and a 2.7% touchdown rate (2nd) to wide receivers this season.

Tillman has been targeted on 31.3% of his routes against man coverage from Winston compared to only a 16.8% rate against zone coverage.

That is the widest disparity of the Cleveland pass catchers.

The Steelers are only 14th in rate of man coverage on passing plays (28.3%), but they are seventh in the league in rate of Cover 1 (26.9% of passing plays) when they go into isolated coverage.

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy grabbed 6-of-11 targets for 142 yards on Sunday anchored by an 89-yard touchdown catch and run, his first touchdown since the season opener.

Jeudy has double-digit targets in each of his past two games and has finished as the WR37 (5-79-0), WR26 (7-73-0), and WR5 (6-142-1) in Winston’s starts.

Cleveland's raw passing totals have pushed up his target count, but Jeudy has now been on the other end of 23.8% of Winston's targets.

Jeudy is a WR3 with added floor in full-PPR formats.

Overall, this is a tougher matchup, but Jeudy also has some positive points, depending on what defenses Pittsburgh throws at Winston.

Jeudy has the inverse splits as Tillman.

He has been targeted on 23.0% of his routes against zone coverage from Winston compared to a 14.0% rate against man coverage.

When the Steelers play zone, they have played Cover 3 on 44.9% of passing snaps, which is second in the league.

Jeudy has a team-high 28.3% target share when Winston has faced Cover 3.

Elijah Moore: Moore snagged 6-of-8 targets for 66 yards and his first touchdown on Sunday.

Moore has been a top-30 scorer in three of the four games since the trade of Amari Cooper.

He has matched Tillman with 30 targets from Winston, tied for second on the team (21.0% of the targets).

Moore has been targeted on a team-high 23.6% of his routes from Winston but only plays in 3WR sets, which has had him on the field for 78.9% of Winston’s dropbacks compared to 100% for Jeudy and 96.9% for Tillman.

Moore only averages 9.7 yards per catch from Winston, so he is more of a floor-based WR3/FLEX.

The Steelers have been tough on slot receivers, allowing 7.6 yards per target (11th) and a league-low 1.4% touchdown rate to the position.

Moore has the tightest splits among the wide receivers in terms of impact by coverage schemes.

He has been targeted on 25.9% of his routes against man coverage and 24.0% against zone coverage.

Mike Williams: Williams did not have a catch or target on Sunday.

He only had a modest bump in usage, running a route on 36.6% of the team dropbacks.

Williams is only an option for single-game DFS.

Tight End

David Njoku: Njoku collected all nine of his targets for 81 yards and a two-point conversion on Sunday.

His 20.5% target share was his highest in a game since Week 7.

Winston targets Njoku at a lower rate (18.3%) than the wide receivers, but he is on their heels.

This is a wide-open passing game propelled by top-down volume.

I am concerned about this passing game in this matchup, but Njoku is tough to avoid as a viable TE1 option, especially on a week with so many byes.

The Steelers have been in the middle of the pack against tight ends compared to being at the top of the league defending receivers.

They have allowed 5.1 receptions per game to tight ends (18th), allowing 6.4 yards per target (10th) and a 4.2% touchdown rate (18th) to the position.

Pat Freiermuth: After catching two passes for 14 yards on Sunday, Freiermuth has not had more than three catches in a game since Week 4.

He only has 9.0% of the team targets with Wilson in the game, lower than Darnell Washington (10.8%).

All of the Steeler tight ends are touchdown-or-bust fantasy swings.

More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: