The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 19.5 | Implied Total | 26.5 | ||
| 16.5 | 30 | Points/Gm | 18.1 | 27 |
| 22.5 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 22.1 | 15 |
| 61.3 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 9 |
| 61.8 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.4 | 3 |
| 4.6 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5 | 22 |
| 5.6 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 11 |
| 43.03% | 19 | Rush% | 46.06% | 12 |
| 56.97% | 14 | Pass% | 53.94% | 21 |
| 46.91% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 42.81% | 14 |
| 53.09% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 57.19% | 19 |
- Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, Miami has been 4th in the NFL in offensive success rate (46.4%) and 3rd in success rate per passing play (53.3%).
- Since Tagovailoa returned, the Dolphins have averaged 3.17 points per drive, 2nd in the NFL behind Detroit (3.18).
- The Dolphins have converted a league-high 60.4% (29-of-48) of their third downs over that span.
- Miami has scored two offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone, tied for the fewest in the league.
- The Patriots have a takeaway on a league-low 4.4% of opponent possessions.
- 45.5% (20-of-44) of the scoring plays against Miami have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league..
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (TRUST): Tua capitalized on a good matchup as a large home favorite last week, and he is in the same spot again this week.
Tagovailoa had a season-high 23.5 passing points against the Raiders, completing 28-of-36 passes (77.8%) for 288 yards (8.0 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns.
He was QB11 on the week, but if he can run back to a similar outing on Sunday, that can go much further with how the landscape is shaping up this week due to byes.
New England has been a streaming target for us.
The Patriots are 25th in terms of pressure rate (30.3%).
Without pressure, they have allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt (25th) and a 5.5% touchdown rate (28th).
Tua is 13th in the use of play action (27.6%).
New England has allowed a 129.9 rating (31st) on play-action passes, allowing 9.2 Y/A (26th) and an 8.5% touchdown rate (28th) without an interception.
New England had a good outing against Caleb Williams in Week 10 but has allowed Matthew Stafford (27.8 points), Mason Rudolph (17.5 points), and Aaron Rodgers (17.3 points) solid to strong weeks surrounding that game over the past four weeks.
Drake Maye: Maye set early career highs with 30 completions and 282 passing yards on Sunday against the Rams.
Adding two touchdowns passing and 27 yards rushing, Maye had a solid fantasy line (18.0 points), suitable for QB17 on the week.
There have been weeks where 18 fantasy points would have been good for a QB1 scoring week.
That could end up being the case this week as well.
Maye is a large underdog on the road, so we will keep him in play as a QB2 with upside. However, he has held a high floor for gamers in 2QB formats.
Maye has averaged 17.2 points per game over his five complete games, with only one week scoring fewer than 15 points.
Miami has good peripheral stats against passers.
They have allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt (7th) and a 3.2% touchdown rate (7th).
But since Tua has returned, we have seen more open game environments, which has led to an increased passing rate against the Dolphins.
After facing a league-low 25.5 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-6, Miami has faced 41.09 per game since Tua returned, with 36 or more in all four games.
They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of those four games.
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Chargers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
