The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Colts and Lions.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 29 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 33.6 | 1 | Points/Gm | 21.5 | 19 |
| 17.7 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 22.7 | 19 |
| 62.4 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 59.1 | 28 |
| 61.4 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 31 |
| 6.3 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 5.3 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 51.76% | 3 | Rush% | 44.92% | 14 |
| 48.24% | 30 | Pass% | 55.08% | 19 |
| 35.99% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 48.10% | 28 |
| 64.01% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 51.90% | 5 |
- The Lions have outscored their opponents by 97 points (192-95) in the first half this season, the largest margin in the league.
- 72.7% (40-of-55) of the Detroit scoring plays have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- 45.7% (16-of-35) of the scoring plays against Detroit have been touchdowns, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
- After converting 38.5% (5-of-13) of their red zone possessions Weeks 1-3 (26th), Detroit has converted 82.1% (23-of-28) since (2nd).
- Detroit has allowed 1.54 points per drive (5th) and a touchdown rate of 14.5% (2nd) per drive on defense.
- Detroit has allowed opponents to convert a league-low 30.4% of their third downs.
- The Lions have converted 13.7% more of their third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.
- The Colts have converted 6.1% fewer third downs than their opponents, 29th in the league.
- Indianapolis running back runs have a 29.9% success rate, ahead of only the Raiders (24.7%).
- Detroit running back runs have a 47.4% success rate, 2nd in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Goff and the Detroit offense dismantled the Jacksonville defense on Sunday.
Goff connected on 24-of-29 passes for 412 yards (14.2 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns and a season-high 21 rushing yards for added salt.
Sunday was the 5th time over the past seven games that Goff completed at least 80% of his passes.
That matches the record of games in a season in which a quarterback has completed 80% or more of his passes on double-digit throws.
Kirk Cousins had five such games in 2019.
No one else has done it to this point.
It was Goff’s first QB1 scoring week since Week 7.
The Lions have the largest team total of the week on a slate in which six teams are on bye, so Goff is right back in play as a QB1.
We always have a good idea of what the Colts want to do on defense.
Gus Bradley is playing Cover 3 on 43.2% of passing plays, 3rd in the NFL.
Goff has faced Cover 3 on 118 dropbacks this season, the 3rd most in the NFL.
On those dropbacks, he has thrown 6 interceptions (the most in the league) but also has completed 77.1% of his passes (2nd) for 10.0 Y/A (4th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (4th).
The Colts are 18th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.438).
Anthony Richardson: Getting another chance to start after sitting for two weeks, Richardson had his best game of the season on Sunday.
He completed a season-high 66.7% of his passes (20-of-30) for 9.1 Y/A with a touchdown and zero interceptions.
On the ground, he rushed 10 times for 32 yards and two touchdowns.
It was his first week higher than QB22 since the season opener.
The Colts got Richardson rhythm in the short area and freed up downfield shots.
Richardson was 9-of-13 (69.2%) of throws 10 yards or further downfield after completing 31.8% (21-of-66) of those throws entering Sunday.
Sunday was an encouraging reminder of how much upside Richardson has when everything comes together.
Now, we want to see some consistency in creating a floor before we handle Richardson as more than a boom-or-bust fantasy option.
We highlighted Sunday’s game as a good spot to play for Richardson’s upside based on the declining output for the Jets’ defense since firing Robert Saleh and their struggles to slow down mobile passers.
Detroit is one of those things, and not the former.
The Lions have allowed the fewest passing points per attempt (0.277) in the league.
They have not allowed multiple touchdown passes in any game this season.
But because Detroit is so aggressive on defense, they have consistently allowed a high number of rushing yards to quarterbacks under Aaron Glenn.
Detroit is 17th in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks this season (3.2 per game).
They have allowed Baker Mayfield (34 yards and a TD), Kyler Murray (45 yards), Geno Smith (38 yards), Sam Darnold (29 yards), and Mason Rudolph (29 yards and a TD) to tack on viable rushing yardage this season.
Last year the Lions were 30th in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks (4.2 per game), and they were last in 2022 (6.6 per game).
Detroit blitzes 31.1% of the time (4th in the league) and plays the highest rate of man coverage (41.5%).
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Chargers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
