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Week 14 Prediction: Kirk Cousins Less Than 247.5 Passing Yards
From a coverage perspective, this is a bad matchup for Kirk Cousins.
The Vikings use the #2 lowest rate of man coverage and thus one of the highest rates of zone.
Kirk Cousins ranks #3 against man coverage but is below average against zone coverage.
Specifically, the Vikings play the #2 highest rate of two-high coverage at roughly 57%.
And it is against two-high coverage that Cousins has the largest splits in the NFL:
- Against two-high: -0.11 EPA/att (#36)
- Against anything else: +0.21 EPA/att (#4)
Additionally, the Vikings rank #13 in pressure rate, and Cousins is the #2 most sensitive QB vs pressure:
- When pressured: -0.35 EPA/att
- When clean: +0.27 EPA/att
The Vikings also rank #4 in quick pressures, getting pressure in just 2.4 seconds on average.
Cousins' average time to throw is 2.6 seconds, which is approximately the NFL average.
The Vikings rank #1 in pressure rate on quick passes. When QBs throw the ball within 2.2 seconds, the Vikings get pressure at a 19.3% rate (#1).
But the biggest factor here is the zone blitzes that the Vikings bring.
The Vikings blitz at a 34% rate when playing zone, by far the most in the NFL. No other team is more than 26%.
Cousins is terrified of zone blitzes. He throws the ball in 2.1 seconds, the fastest in the NFL, and he averages only 5.2 air yards per attempt, #5 shortest in the NFL.
These passes gain just 5.7 yards per attempt, #29 in the NFL.
When not blitzed since Week 8, Cousins has averaged 8.4 air yards/att (#13).
When he has been blitzed, that average falls to just 6.1 air yards/att (#28).
Cousins has played some terrible pass defenses this season.
But the last two games he’s played the Broncos and Chargers, two top-10 pass defenses.
When they blitzed him, he averaged just 2.9 air yards per attempt.
If Cousins resorts to throwing short against the Vikings blitz, it won’t go well for him.
Look at the Vikings defensive splits when they blitz and if opponents throw the ball:
- 5 or fewer yards downfield: -0.08 EPA/att, 43% success, 5.9 YPA
- 6+ yards downfield: +0.15 EPA/att, 52% success, 9.7 YPA
Kirk Cousins has topped this number only 3 times all season: twice against the Bucs and twice against the Saints.
