49ers vs. Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 15

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the 49ers and Rams on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Brock Purdy (TRUST): Purdy bounced back from a season-low fantasy game in the snow in Week 13 to end last week as QB6 (22.1 points).

He had his most efficient game of the season, completing a season-high 80% of his passes (20-of-25) for a season-high 13.0 yards per pass attempt with a pair of touchdowns.

Only Jared Goff in Week 11 had a 300-yard passing game with more yards per attempt (14.2 Y/A) than Purdy’s game on Sunday this season.

San Francisco will need more weeks like last week to keep its postseason aspirations alive, and Purdy draws a favorable matchup to sustain efficiency.

The Rams are 31st in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.509).

The Rams allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt (31st) and a 5.8% touchdown rate (30th) to passers.

Los Angeles is a zone-heavy pass defense, playing man coverage on 22.3% of passing plays (24th).

Purdy has wide splits against zone coverage compared to man coverage.

Against zone coverage, he averages a league-high 9.6 yards per pass attempt, completing 73.1% of his passes (8th).

Against man coverage, Purdy has completed 55.1% of his passes (20th) for 7.2 Y/A (15th).

When these teams met in Week 3, Purdy ended that week as QB5 (25.8 points) against the Rams, completing 22-of-30 passes (73.3%) for 292 yards (9.7 Y/A) and 3 touchdowns.

That was in a game without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

The lone blemish is that Trent Williams' status remains in the air for Thursday.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford stayed hot on Sunday, completing 23-of-30 passes (76.7%) for 320 yards (10.7 Y/A) with a pair of touchdowns.

He closed the week as QB8 (20.8 points).

Stafford has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games and six of his seven games since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 8.

Over that span, Stafford has a 6.6% touchdown rate, which is fifth in the league.

He has averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game over that run, good for QB11 over that period.

I prefer to use Stafford as a floor-based QB2 and take on an upside outing as it comes, but he resides in that fringe QB1 area this week.

San Francisco has had a few defensive woes over the back half of the season, but they are still second in the league in passing points allowed per game (11.4).

They have allowed only three QB1 scoring weeks on the season, with two coming in games with rushing touchdowns allowed to the opposing passer.

When these teams met in Week 3, Stafford was QB21 (12.8 points).

Stafford has not had an excellent track record in this matchup.

He has averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt with 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in seven games against San Francisco with the Rams.

A few things are in motion for this matchup compared to those previous outings.

The first is that this will be his first game against the 49ers with Nacua and Kupp available.

Neither one played in that Week 3 meeting.

The second is that the 49ers have harassed Stafford in those meetings.

They have pressured him on 37% or more of his dropbacks in four straight meetings which includes a 46.4% rate in Week 3.

When the 49ers have pressured Stafford, he has averaged only 4.4 Y/A.

The Rams have had their full offensive line available for the past two weeks.

Stafford has only been pressured on 28.6% of his dropbacks the past two weeks with the line intact, the ninth lowest in the league.

We are still waiting on Nick Bosa's status, who has not played since Week 11.

San Francisco's pressure rate with Bosa off the field is 26.0% compared to 38.8% with him on the field.

That is the difference between third in the NFL and 31st.

With Bosa off the field, the 49ers have allowed a 75% completion rate, 7.2 Y/A, and a 5.4% touchdown rate compared to a 60.2% completion rate, 6.4 Y/A, and a 4.0% touchdown rate with Bosa on the field.

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Running Back

Kyren Williams: Williams handled a season-high 31 touches on Sunday, turning those into 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.

After going without a rushing touchdown from Week 8 to Week 11, Williams has gotten into the end zone in the past three games on the ground.

Williams is averaging 4.0 yards per carry (26th out of 33 running backs with 100 or more runs) with a run of 10 or more yards on 8.8% of those attempts (29th).

But 27.9% of his runs have resulted in a first down or touchdown, which is third on that list.

Williams is not the most explosive back, but his volume and touchdown equity keep him in that RB1/RB2 area with upside for when he cashes in his scoring chances.

This matchup is not as clean as the past two weeks, but he has done well against the 49ers.

When these teams played in Week 3, Williams handled 26 touches for 116 yards and 3 touchdowns.

In his lone games against the 49ers last season, Williams turned 20 touches into 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The 49ers have allowed 16 touchdowns to running backs, tied for the second-most in the league.

San Francisco got on track last week, holding the Chicago backfield to 54 yards on 21 touches.

However, without Bosa available, the team had previously allowed 224 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Buffalo backfield and 173 yards and 3 touchdowns to the Green Bay backfield in the previous two games.

49ers RBs: This backfield has been beaten up the past two weeks.

After losing Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason for the remainder of the regular season in Week 13, Isaac Guerendo exited last week’s game in the fourth quarter with a foot sprain.

His status for Thursday is up in the air, but Kyle Shanahan stated that Guerendo would not have practiced on Monday.

Guerendo had turned 17 touches into 128 yards and 2 scores on Sunday before his injury.

We could see Ke’Shawn Vaughn and the freshly acquired Israel Abanikanda draw touches this week should Guerendo miss, but with the game on a short week, Patrick Taylor would be the favorite to lead this backfield.

I would pick up Abanikanda as a speculation add, but given the game's timing, it is hard to see him getting much run.

Taylor handled 6-of-8 backfield touches for 18 yards and a touchdown after Guerendo exited Sunday’s game.

Taylor’s career-high for rushing attempts in a game in the NFL is 11.

We have seen Shanahan elevate several running backs to fantasy glory, so this will be another test.

I know many gamers just emptied the rest of their FAAB on Guerendo, but we would prefer that Guerendo take a week to get right rather than play potentially in a limited capacity.

We need to see Guerendo log a full practice, which may not happen on a shortened week.

Should Guerendo fail to practice and be active on Thursday, he is a boom-or-bust fantasy option.

If Guerendo does miss the game, then Taylor gets a lift as an RB2 with the potential upside to be the next fantasy back to flourish under Shanahan and the potential downside that he is not extended a large workload or is ineffective in his first look as a feature back in the NFL.

The Rams are a hit-or-miss run defense.

They have allowed 4.6 YPC to running backs (26th) but have allowed a first down or touchdown on 22% of those runs (12th).

San Francisco backs rushed 24 times for 96 yards (4.0 YPC) in the first matchup between these teams earlier in the season.

Wide Receiver

Puka Nacua: Nacua has been incredible since returning to the field.

On Sunday, he caught 12-of-14 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown, adding his first career rushing touchdown.

It was Nacua’s 12th 100-yard receiving game in 26 career games played.

It was his fifth game with over 150 yards receiving.

Jerry Rice and Randy Moss are the only other wide receivers to do that five or more times in their first two seasons since the merger in 1970.

Nacua is the WR2 in fantasy points scored since his return to the lineup in Week 8.

He has been targeted on a league-high 37.1% of his routes while his 3.50 yards per route are the most among wide receivers with 100 or more routes on the season.

Nacua is a front-end WR1.

San Francisco is ninth in fantasy points allowed to outside receivers (17.1 per game) and first in points allowed to WR1 targets (11.0 per game), but Nacua has faced the Eagles (9-117-0) and Bills (12-162-1) over the past three games, who were at the front end of the league defending lead wideouts and outside receivers entering those matchups.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp grabbed 5-of-8 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

While Kupp has not been as efficient as Nacua and more touchdown-dependent since both returned to action, he has been the WR7 in fantasy scoring and WR10 in expected points.

Kupp has averaged 2.33 yards per route (WR18) and has been targeted on 29.2% of his routes (WR6).

He has 6 targets in the end zone over that period (tied for WR7), one more than Nacua.

Kupp is also a WR1 for fantasy purposes, even if giving the edge to Nacua as the top option.

Since returning, Kupp has played 62% of his snaps in the slot, which does provide matchup appeal for efficiency per target here.

San Francisco has allowed 9.1 yards per target to slot receivers (26th).

Jauan Jennings (TRUST): The breakout campaign for Jennings rolled along on Sunday, catching 7-of-8 targets for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Jennings has now played six games with either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel absent.

In those games, Jennings has received 33.5% of the team targets while posting 2.99 yards per route run.

Since he returned to the lineup in Week 10 post Aiyuk injury, Jennings has 32.4%, 39.3%, 26.9%, 29.4%, and 30.8% of the team targets.

A game with Brandon Allen (5-40-0) and in the snow in Buffalo (3-56-0) are part of that sample, but in his games played with Purdy outside of the snow game, Jennings has finished those weeks as WR16, WR7, and WR5 over that period.

We are not expecting Jennings to repeat his 11-175-3 from when these teams played in Week 3 without Samuel or George Kittle, but he is the WR1 in this passing game.

Jennings has 8 targets in the end zone compared to 2 for Samuel.

The Rams have allowed 9.1 yards per target (31st) and a 7.9% touchdown rate (31st) to wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel caught 2-of-3 targets for 22 yards on Sunday, adding five rushing attempts for 13 yards.

Samuel has not been a top-50 scorer in his past four games.

He only has one receiving touchdown while averaging a career-low 46.1 yards per game.

Since Jennings returned in Week 10, Samuel has 19.1% of the team targets with 1.07 yards per route run.

Samuel takes a leap of faith as a boom-or-bust WR3, but if you throw him out in lineups and let the football deities take the wheel, there are a few avenues of hope.

The first is that Samuel was more active in the running game without McCaffrey.

That gives him access to more opportunities, which could be extended with another injury to the backfield.

Samuel also voiced some issues with getting the ball more, providing a “squeaky wheel” narrative spot.

If he were to get more opportunities, it would be par for the course in this matchup.

Samuel has tormented the Rams in this rivalry.

Over his past 7 complete games in this matchup, Samuel has had games with 60 yards and a touchdown, 133 yards, 133 yards and a touchdown, 140 yards, and a touchdown, 98 yards and a touchdown, 117 yards and a touchdown, and 101 yards and a touchdown.

Demarcus Robinson: Robinson injured his shoulder on Sunday and is questionable to play.

If he does play, you know what you are signing up for as a touchdown-dependent asset best used for single-game DFS.

37.1% of his fantasy points have been scored via touchdowns.

He leads the team with 12 end zone targets, 8 of which have come since Nacua and Kupp returned in Week 8.

If Robinson cannot go, Tutu Atwell will get a lift in playing time.

Atwell has been an effective player when called upon this season.

He averages 2.49 yards per route run, which is second on the team behind Nacua.

He has been targeted on 24.5% of his routes when on the field.

Tight End

George Kittle (TRUST): On Sunday, Kittle caught all six targets for 151 yards.

He is enjoying one of his best seasons.

Kittle leads all tight ends in yards per route (2.70) while posting 72.7 yards per game, his best numbers since 2020.

He has benefited from Samuel's down year and the inconsistent use of running backs in the passing game outside of McCaffrey.

Kittle has been targeted on 22.6% of his routes, his highest rate in a season with Brock Purdy.

This is an excellent spot for Kittle to remain active and efficient.

He leads the team with 3.16 yards per route against zone coverage, a rate that jumps to 3.99 yards per route against Cover 3.

The Rams play Cover 3 on 35.5% of passing plays, eighth in the league.

They also have been beaten up by tight ends overall.

The Rams have allowed a 74.4% catch rate (24th), 7.6 yards per target (19th), and 4.2% touchdown rate (18th) to tight ends.

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