The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Browns and Chiefs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 24.75 | Implied Total | 20.75 | ||
| 23.7 | 11 | Points/Gm | 17.8 | 29 |
| 19.4 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 25.8 | 26 |
| 65.8 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 66.5 | 1 |
| 58.7 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 10 |
| 5.1 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 30 |
| 5.3 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 26 |
| 41.64% | 22 | Rush% | 34.61% | 32 |
| 58.36% | 11 | Pass% | 65.39% | 1 |
| 40.10% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 47.01% | 24 |
| 59.90% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 52.99% | 9 |
- Kansas City is a league-best 5-1 when trailing in the fourth quarter this season.
- The Chiefs are 31st in defensive EPA over their past six games (-35.61) after ranking 10th in Weeks 1-8 (35.56)
- Since Week 8, the Chiefs' offense has averaged 4.9 yards per play, which is 29th in the league.
- Cleveland has allowed 6.1 yards per play over that span, which is 30th in the league.
- 4.5% of the Kansas City running back runs have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the NFL.
- 5.3% of the running back runs against the Chiefs have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 7.6% of the Cleveland running back runs have gained 10 or more yards, 28th in the league.
- Cleveland has led for 13.1% of their snaps in the second half, ahead of only the Raiders (6.4%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes closed last week as QB16 (14.1 points).
Throwing for 5.7 yards per attempt on Sunday night, Mahomes has thrown for 7.0 yards per attempt in only four games this season.
He has only two games as a top-10 fantasy scorer this season and nine games as QB16 or lower.
Mahomes is a floor-based QB2.
If looking for upside here, the Browns have been a boom-or-bust pass defense.
Cleveland has allowed a 61.3% completion rate (4th) but a league-high 12.8 yards per completion and a 4.7% touchdown rate (21st).
That cocktail has them 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.488).
Cleveland has still gotten after passers.
They lead the league with a 42.3% pressure rate.
Mahomes has been impacted by pressure more this season than ever.
When pressured, his 47.6% completion rate is 20th, his 6.2 Y/A ranks 17th, and his 4.8% touchdown rate is 15th.
He has been sacked a career-high 35 times already.
Mahomes has taken a sack on 22% of his pressures. His previous career-high was 13.3%.
Jameis Winston: Winston pushed through a tough matchup in Pittsburgh and survived with a usable 2QB score.
He ended the week QB13 (15.3 points) despite completing 58.5% of his passes, his second game in a row completing fewer than 60% of his throws.
The Winston experience has gone as expected.
Since taking over in Week 8, Winston has a 61.4% completion rate (26th) and a 3.5% interception rate (30th), but he has a league-high 43.2 pass attempts per game over that span.
That volume has aided him throwing multiple touchdown passes in four of his six starts while averaging a league-high 315.3 passing yards per game.
Winston is best used as a volume-based QB2.
He has a wide range of outcomes but does offer spike-week potential.
This matchup is not as tough as it would have been early this season.
Since their Week 6 bye, the Chiefs have allowed 17.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Over that period, they have allowed a 67.9% completion rate (23rd), 7.3 Y/A (19th), and a 5.2% touchdown rate (14th).
The Chiefs are still hyper-aggressive, trying to generate a pass rush.
Over that period, Kansas City is 4th in the league in blitz rate (33.2%) and 4th in man coverage rate (34.4%).
But they have gotten pressures on 42.4% of their blitzes over that span, 16th in the league.
If you can pressure Winston, that is when the mistakes happen.
Under pressure, Winston has a 42% completion rate (32nd) for 6.0 Y/A (23rd), a 4.3% interception rate (29th), and a 21.6% sack rate (19th).
Running Back
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More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ 49ers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Chiefs @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Vikings -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Raiders -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
