The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Bills and Lions.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 26.5 | Implied Total | 28.0 | ||
| 30.5 | 2 | Points/Gm | 32.1 | 1 |
| 20.6 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 18.0 | 2 |
| 59.4 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 5 |
| 60.7 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 4 |
| 5.5 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 14 |
| 46.89% | 8 | Rush% | 50.30% | 5 |
| 53.11% | 25 | Pass% | 49.70% | 28 |
| 42.97% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 36.64% | 3 |
| 57.03% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 63.36% | 30 |
- Detroit has a league-high 7 wins in games when the opponent has scored first.
- Buffalo is 7-0 when they have led at halftime compared to 3-3 when they have trailed at the half.
- Detroit has led at halftime in 11 games this season, tied for the most in the league.
- Buffalo leads the NFL in points per drive (2.92).
- Detroit is second, averaging 2.88 points per drive.
- The Lions have a league-high 39 goal-to-go possessions and have scored a touchdown on 87.2% (34-of-39) of their goal-to-go possessions, second in the league.
- Buffalo has scored a touchdown on 82.8% (24-of-29) of their goal-to-go possessions, sixth in the league.
- The Bills have scored 30-plus points in seven straight games, their longest streak as a franchise and the longest streak in the league since the Buccaneers went 9 straight over the 2020-2021 seasons.
- Buffalo has scored 77.5 more points than their implied totals this season, the highest margin in the league.
- Detroit has allowed 51 fewer points than their opponents' implied totals this season, second in the league.
- 29.1% of the passing plays against Buffalo have gained 10 or more yards (29th in the league), but only 6.2% have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 29.7% of the Detroit passing plays have gained 10 or more yards, sixth in the league.
- The Bills have a 52.7% success rate on defense over their past five games (31st) after a 60% rate prior (12th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen delivered the best fantasy game a quarterback has ever had on Sunday.
He threw for 342 yards, rushed for 82 yards, and had 3 touchdowns by land and another 3 through the air.
Allen is a front-end QB1 for fantasy, but you already know that.
This matchup is a complete flip from last week’s showdown with the Rams.
The Rams were 31st in passing points allowed per attempt. The Lions are first.
Detroit has allowed more than 1 touchdown pass just once this season.
Allen will be the most significant test this unit has faced.
What Detroit has done defensively is noteworthy, given all of their injuries.
At one point last week, they only had four players on the field who started in Week 1.
Detroit has six defensive linemen on injured reserve while Alim McNeill, D.J. Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, and Josh Pascal either missed last week’s game or left injured.
We will follow the status of those players this week, but what stands out from this matchup is Allen’s increased rushing.
Allen now has 6 rushing touchdowns over his past four games after only rushing for 1 touchdown over his previous eight games.
Last year, we credited Joe Brady with boosting Allen’s rushing production over the back half of the season, but he has had the same ramp-up this season.
Allen rushed for 23.4 yards per game in Weeks 1-9 this year, with one game hitting 50 yards.
Since then, he has had games of 50, 55, 18, and 82 yards rushing.
He has had 33 rushing attempts over his past four games after 47 through nine weeks.
Detroit is 26th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (24.9 per game).
In the previous two seasons under Aaron Glenn, they were 30th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks in 2023 (24.7 per game) and dead last in 2022 (41.2 per game).
No team plays more man coverage (41.3%) than Detroit, and they blitz on 31% of dropbacks, which is sixth in the league.
Not only does that allow Allen to create more with his legs, but he has wide splits against man and zone coverage this season.
Against man coverage, Allen has a 13.8% touchdown rate (2nd).
He threw his first touchdown against zone coverage last week but has a 0.8% touchdown rate (31st) for the season.
Jared Goff: Goff ended last week as QB7 (22 points), which was only his second QB1 scoring week over his past seven games.
Goff threw for 6.9 yards per attempt on Thursday (his fourth game below 7.0 Y/A over that stretch) but added 3 touchdown passes.
Despite uneven fantasy production, Goff has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four of his past five games.
Goff's fantasy scoring has been volatile, but he is near the top of the league in most metrics.
He has completed 72.4% of his passes (2nd) for 8.6 Y/A (3rd) and a 6.6% touchdown rate (4th).
Goff is best used as a high-floor QB2 who can run into spike weeks, but this game is oozing with shootout appeal, so there is no fault in chasing an upside outcome in 1QB formats.
The Bills deploy the opposite approach from Detroit defensively.
They are 25th in pressure rate (30.6%), 24th in rate of man coverage (20.8%), and 30th in blitz rate (16.6%).
As noted in the bullet points, they play a “bend, don’t break” style, trying to prevent big passing plays.
Last week, Matthew Stafford was the quarterback who could attack that approach with the weapons and scheme that they have.
Goff, Ben Johnson, and this offense fit the same criteria.
Against zone coverage, Goff has completed 73.6% of his passes (5th) for 8.6 Y/A (5th) and a 3.0% touchdown rate (10th).
When Goff has not been pressured, has thrown a first down or a touchdown pass on 47.1% of his throws, the highest rate in the league.
Running Back
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More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ 49ers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Chiefs @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Vikings -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Raiders -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
