When it comes to NFL player props for Week 15, the value often lies not in what players will achieve, but in what they’re unlikely to accomplish.
This week, two unders stand out.
While overs are often the flashy choice, unders highlight the importance of analyzing context, trends, and game flow.
De'Von Achane and Alvin Kamara both face uphill battles in the rushing department, making their unders sharp plays for Week 15.
Week 15 Prediction: De'Von Achane Under 47.5 rushing yards
The odds stack heavily against Achane delivering a breakout performance, and it starts with Miami's recent offensive struggles.
Miami’s ground game has fallen into a tailspin, averaging a league-worst 49 rushing yards per game over their last three contests.
Achane has been emblematic of those struggles, failing to surpass 37 rushing yards in four of his last five outings while mustering a pedestrian 3.2 yards per carry or less.
The absence of right tackle Austin Jackson has been a crushing blow to Miami’s run blocking efficiency, leaving Achane with fewer lanes to exploit.
Since Week 10, Achane has produced just three rushing plays of 10+ yards and ranks a dismal 28th out of 33 qualified running backs in yards after contact, illustrating his inability to generate yardage on his own.
Adding to his challenges, the Dolphins offense has become painfully one-dimensional, heavily favoring the pass to compensate for their non-existent ground attack.
With the deck stacked against Miami's rushing attack and Achane in particular, under 47.5 rushing yards offers strong value.
The trends, matchups, and Miami's offensive struggles all point toward another tough day on the ground for the second year back.
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Week 15 Prediction: Alvin Kamara Under 74.5 rushing yards
Given the shifting dynamics in New Orleans’ backfield and game script concerns, backing the under could be a sharp move.
The return of Kendre Miller from injured reserve looms large, as the rookie’s standout performance in Week 14 — including a short touchdown — signals a likely redistribution of rushing opportunities.
Miller's fresh legs and physical running style make him an ideal option to shoulder some of the load, particularly in short-yardage and red zone situations.
Kamara’s unique value lies in his elite versatility, leading all running backs with 64 receptions this season, and the Saints aren’t shy about leaning on his pass-catching abilities.
Should New Orleans find itself trailing, which is likely as +7.5 underdogs, a pass-heavy game plan could emerge, further siphoning off Kamara's rushing opportunities.
This is especially relevant given the Saints’ struggles to stay competitive in games, often needing Kamara more as a receiver than a rusher.
Kamara’s recent rushing numbers underscore the concern.
His 44 yards on 17 carries in Week 14 marked his lowest total since Week 7, reflecting both inefficiency and increased reliance on the passing game.
Add in a tougher matchup or potential game flow favoring the pass, and Kamara’s workload on the ground could easily fall short of expectations.
With Miller’s increasing involvement, Kamara’s multifaceted role tilting toward the air attack, and his recent rushing struggles, under 74.5 rushing yards looks like a savvy wager in this matchup.
