The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Falcons and Giants.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 16 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 14.9 | 32 | Points/Gm | 20.9 | 21 |
| 23.4 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 24.4 | 25 |
| 64.4 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 13 |
| 60.4 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 20 |
| 4.6 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 10 |
| 5.7 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 18 |
| 39.51% | 26 | Rush% | 44.80% | 14 |
| 60.49% | 7 | Pass% | 55.20% | 19 |
| 48.17% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 43.56% | 16 |
| 51.83% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 56.44% | 17 |
- Atlanta has averaged 1.37 points per drive over its past five games, ahead of only the Giants (1.21).
- The Giants have averaged a league-low 4.3 yards per play over their past five games.
- The Giants have 18 fewer passing plays of 20-plus yards than their opponents, which is the worst differential in the league.
- The Giants are the only team in the league this season without a play of 50 or more yards.
- The Giants have led for 7.3% of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Falcons have a 45.6% success rate on running back runs, 2nd in the NFL.
- The Giants have a 60.3% success rate defending running back runs, 26th in the league.
- 14.7% of the rushing plays against the Giants have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Michael Penix: Penix is making his first start after Kirk Cousins and this passing game struggled to generate production against the Raiders.
There is certainly volatility here, because we just have not seen Penix play.
He only had 16 total dropbacks in the preseason and has 5 pass attempts this season in the few snaps he has played.
But this passing game had just about bottomed already.
The main thing that this change allows is more offensive diversity.
With Cousins unable to move, this offense was limited.
They are dead last in the NFL in the use of play action (14.3% of dropbacks), well below the 24.6% league rate.
95.6% of Cousins drop backs have been in the pocket, the highest rate in the league.
The league rate is 82%.
The Falcons' dropback rate on Monday was 36.8%, their lowest rate in a game this season.
Their previous low was 44.1%.
Their pass rate was 21% below expectations and was 37% below expectations on first downs.
They were insulating themselves from Cousins, which is a hard way to live in the NFL.
What will be interesting is to see how he plays with little experience in the preseason.
Penix ended 2023 with a final-season yards per pass attempt (8.8 Y/A) in the 73rd percentile for prospects in their final season while closing in the 55th percentile in touchdown-to-interception rate (3.3:1) and the 63rd percentile in completion rate (65.4%).
I do believe Penix will run a lot more in the NFL than he did in college, but this is also a quarterback who played in structure and struggled to create passing production out of it.
Penix threw for just 4.2 yards per pass attempt outside of the pocket in 2023, which ranked ahead of only Kedon Slovis in this class.
In the pocket, Penix averaged 9.4 Y/A, fourth in this class.
His on-target rate when he was pressured (53.4%) was 10th in this class. He went from 9.5 Y/A when kept clean down to 7.0 Y/A when pressured.
On non-play-action or RPO passes, Penix was 10th in this class with 7.9 Y/A while ranking second in the number of those throws.
Not only did Penix have some hiccups when pressured, but Penix also had issues in the money situations for quarterbacks.
His 66.1% on-target rate in the red zone was 10th in this class with a 7.0% sack rate (11th).
On third and fourth downs, Penix was 11th in this class with 6.7 Y/A.
Atlanta is a significant home favorite and has a good matchup if using Penix as a 2QB option.
There is a reason they chose this spot at home against a team with a limited pass rush.
The Giants are 29th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.496), allowing a 70% completion rate (30th), 7.7 Y/A (28th), and a 4.8% touchdown rate (20th).
Giants QB: Brian Daboll was unsure who would start this week after Tommy DeVito was forced from Sunday’s game due to a concussion.
On Sunday, Drew Lock was the emergency quarterback, pushing Tim Boyle into action after DeVito’s exit.
Boyle went 12-of-24 (50%) for 5.1 Y/A with a touchdown and an interception in relief.
Regardless of which quarterback the Giants choose this week, that option is only available to 2QB gamers forced to fill a roster spot.
The likelihood of a team being this deep in the fantasy playoffs and in that position is thin, but Atlanta offers matchup appeal if that is the case.
The Falcons are 29th in pressure rate (29.1%), dead last in sack rate (4.9%), and 30th in passing points allowed per game (16.6).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to all of Rich Hribar's fantasy content for the rest of the regular season, click below to learn more about our postseason betting packages.
Learn More
More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
