Packers vs. Saints Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Packers and Saints on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jordan Love: For the second season in a row, the Packers have calibrated their offensive identity during the season, helping Love become a more efficient player.

Since their Week 10 bye, the Packers have swerved into a ball-control offense, dropping back on 46.5% of their snaps (31st in the league).

Playing complementary football has helped Love.

Since their bye, Love has completed 68.7% of his passes (7th) for a league-high 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

He leads the league in rating (119.9) and is third in EPA per dropback over that span (0.32) behind only Josh Allen (0.41) and Jared Goff (0.39).

For fantasy, Love was the QB10 (17.6 points) in Seattle, continuing his run as a high-floor option on the QB1/QB2 line.

Love has only two weeks higher than QB10 this season, but only one full game finishes in the back half of weekly scoring.

Love is attached to a significant home favorite in a healthy implied game environment to stay on track as a fringe QB1.

The Saints have allowed over 15 fantasy points to four consecutive quarterbacks.

Spencer Rattler: The Saints appear to be returning to Rattler after he entered the game and put them in a position to nearly complete a comeback against Washington on Sunday.

While the Saints were a two-point conversion away from fulfilling that comeback attempt, Rattler was still only 10-of-21 (47.6%) for 135 yards (6.4 Y/A) with a touchdown.

For fantasy purposes, he is still a thin QB2.

This is especially true given the state of this offense, the Saints' massive underdog status on the road, and them having one of the worst team totals of the week.

The Packers are 11th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.392).

Rattler is QB40 in passing points per attempt (0.269).

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Running Back

Josh Jacobs (TRUST): Jacobs keeps collecting volume and touchdowns.

He handled 30 touches for 136 yards and a score in Seattle on Sunday night.

Jacobs has scored in four straight games with 8 rushing touchdowns over that span.

He has found the end zone 12 times over his past 8 games.

Attached to a high-total home favorite, this is a spot for Jacobs to keep stacking touches.

The Saints provide him with a good matchup to put them to use.

New Orleans has allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running backs (29th) with a 55.3% success rate (31st) against those runs.

They have allowed a first down or a touchdown on a league-high 26.2% of running back runs.

Saints RB: Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury on Sunday, leaving his status in doubt for Week 16.

The Saints have an extra day, and Kamara is inching closer to his first 1,000-yard rushing season, but outside of that, New Orleans has little reason to push Kamara out if he is not 100%.

We will follow his status throughout the week.

With Kamara sidelined on Sunday, Kendre Miller out-snapped Jamaal Williams 26-to-6 while running 11 more pass routes.

This could be an opportunity to see Miller in a larger role, something Darren Rizzi was excited about before Miller returned to the lineup.

In the past two weeks, Miller has had 19 touches for 78 yards and a touchdown.

There are shortcomings here based on the state of this offense and being massive road underdogs, but Miller would be in the RB2/FLEX conversation based on opportunity should Kamara sit out this week.

To compound the potential pitfalls, the Packers have played the run well coming out of their bye, allowing 3.7 YPC to running backs (4th) with a 66.7% success rate (5th) on those runs.

That includes allowing 94 yards on 29 runs to the Detroit backfield while facing Christian McCaffrey, D’Andre Swift, De’Von Achane, and Zach Charbonnet over that run.

Wide Receiver

Jayden Reed: Reed caught 5-of-6 targets for 34 yards on Sunday night, adding 27 yards rushing.

Reed has been held to 50 or fewer receiving yards in 9-of-14 games, while his 34 yards receiving on Sunday were his most in a game since Week 9.

The Packers are 31st in dropback rate since their bye, so these wide receivers (who already take away from each other) have to be hyper-efficient with their opportunities.

If you want a matchup-based carrot for Reed as a boom-or-bust WR3, the Saints played Cover 2 at the league’s highest rate (26.2%).

Reed leads the team with 23.6% of the targets and 2.49 yards per route against Cover 2.

Romeo Doubs: Doubs returned from a two-game absence due to a concussion, catching 3-of-5 targets for 40 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday night.

We know what we have with Doubs as a touchdown-dependent fantasy option.

Doubs has the lowest target rate (9.5% of his routes) against Cover 2, but the Saints have been an equal-opportunity defense since losing Paulson Adebo and Marshon Lattimore in the secondary.

New Orleans has allowed 13.3 catches (27th) for 174.2 yards (29th) per game to wide receivers.

Christian Watson: Watson leads the Packers with 387 yards since their Week 10 bye, which is 208 more yards than the next closest player.

He is averaging 29.8 yards per catch over that span.

He also leads the team with a target on 23.5% of his routes over that period.

He does not have a touchdown during that run, but Watson is an upside WR3/FLEX option for gamers hunting for big plays.

The Saints have allowed 20 receptions to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which is 28th.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling caught 2-of-7 targets for 64 yards on Sunday.

He led the team in targets while running a route on 80% of the dropbacks.

Since joining the Saints, MVS has not had more than four catches in a game, but he has had 22.6% and 24.1% of the team's targets in the past two weeks.

He has been a WR4 or better in five straight games for gamers throwing a dart on him as a WR4/FLEX option in his return to Green Bay.

The Packers have played the deep ball well, allowing wide receivers 12 receptions on deep targets (7th).

Tight End

Tucker Kraft: Kraft caught both of his targets for 34 yards on Sunday.

The reduced passing volume and the Packers having all their wideouts available have made Kraft a touchdown-dependent option.

30.2% of his fantasy points have come via touchdowns, behind Mark Andrews (33.2%) and Foster Moreau (31.1%).

Kraft has finished as a TE1 scorer in 3 of his past 8 games, with all three having a touchdown.

That is tough to chase here.

The Saints have allowed a 1.1% touchdown rate to tight ends, second in the league.

Saints TEs: Juwan Johnson ran 29 routes on Sunday, catching 2-of-3 targets for 12 yards.

Foster Moreau ran 16 routes, catching 4-of-4 targets for 39 yards.

Outside of running into a touchdown here in single-game DFS, this is a stayaway unit.

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