For Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season, two player props stand out as high-value plays, regardless of Patrick Mahomes‘ status following his Week 15 injury: backing the Texans defense in Derek Stingley Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Whether Mahomes takes the field or the Chiefs turn to a backup quarterback, both props hold strong potential.
Stingley’s elite ball-hawking skills and Hunter’s relentless pass rush are matchup-proof, capable of exploiting even experienced signal-callers.
With Stingley leading the Texans’ secondary and Hunter anchoring their pass rush, these props remain solid investments, offering game-changing upside in any scenario.
Plug in a quarterback rushing prop, and we’ve got some solid plus-money options to consider for the week.
Week 16 Prediction: Caleb Williams Total Rushing Yards 25+ (-125) & 30+ (+130)
Williams has been a steady force on the ground this season, averaging 29 rushing yards per game and surpassing the 30-yard mark in seven of his 14 outings.
The Lions defense has been a revolving door for mobile quarterbacks, allowing even Baker Mayfield to scramble for 34 yards in Week 2 and, more recently, surrendering 61 rushing yards to Anthony Richardson and 68 rushing yards to Josh Allen.
Under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, the Bears have simplified their scheme to emphasize Williams' strengths, likely increasing his opportunities for designed runs and improvised scrambles.
With Chicago’s offensive line giving up 58 sacks this season, Williams' mobility is not just a weapon—it’s a necessity.
His recent uptick in rushing production, including 27, 39, and 33 yards in three of his last four games, is supported by an increasing reliance on scrambles — 22 in his last seven games compared to 17 in his first seven.
Playing at home provides an extra layer of comfort for Williams to trust his instincts and take off when needed.
The +130 odds for 30+ rushing yards present value, considering his consistent production and Detroit's documented struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
Backing Williams to surpass 25 or 30 rushing yards is a solid wager with both opportunity and upside.
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Week 16 Prediction: Derek Stingley Jr. Over 0.5 Interceptions (+450)
This feels like a high-value play, especially with the Texans' rising star cornerback facing off against Patrick Mahomes.
While Mahomes has recently gone four games without throwing an interception, his earlier streak of seven consecutive games with a pick, including multiple 2-interception outings, proves he’s not invincible.
Stingley, on the other hand, has been on a tear, showcasing elite ball-hawking skills with 4 interceptions and 7 passes defended in his last four games.
Stingley’s standout moment came against the Miami Dolphins, where he picked off Tua Tagovailoa twice, ending Tua’s streak of turnover-free games.
Now tied for fourth in the NFL in interceptions, Stingley is building a case as one of the league’s premier young defenders. His ability to match
up with top-tier receivers, as seen in his coverage of Tyreek Hill, highlights his game-changing potential.
As Mahomes enters this matchup, he’s no stranger to pressure.
Though his recent streak is clean, the earlier turnover woes loom large, and Stingley is precisely the type of player who can capitalize on even the smallest mistake.
If Stingley can disrupt Mahomes as he did Tua, the odds of him snagging another interception are well worth the consideration.
Week 16 Prediction: Danielle Hunter Over 0.5 Sacks (+105)
This plus-money option offers excellent value in a matchup that could heavily favor the Houston defense.
The Texans have racked up an impressive 16 sacks over their last five games, with Hunter accounting for 6.5 of them.
Facing a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, Hunter is poised to capitalize on a quarterback who’s been under siege this season.
Mahomes has taken 35 sacks so far — 22 of those at home — including 8 in just his last two home games. The vulnerability is there, and Hunter has the skills to exploit it.
While both Hunter and teammate Will Anderson Jr. are capable of delivering big games, targeting Hunter specifically might be the smarter play.
Hunter’s veteran experience and proven track record — six seasons with double-digit sacks — give him the edge in reliability.
With 12 sacks this season, he’s slightly outpacing Anderson’s 10.5, and his ability to exploit matchups could shine here.
Offensive lines may focus more on containing Anderson, creating even more opportunities for Hunter to get to the quarterback.
At +105 odds, the value is undeniable. Betting on Hunter offers a solid risk-reward ratio, backed by consistent production, favorable matchups, and the potential for game-changing impact.
