This week’s start’em/sit’em has fewer sleepers since most of the rosters that made the semifinals have stronger flex options with all 32 teams playing.
Best of luck to everyone in their semifinal matchups and happy holidays.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Starts:
| Week 16 Starts | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | Bucs |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | Cowboys |
| Kennan Allen | WR | Bears |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | 49ers |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Ravens |
Week 16 Fantasy Football Sits:
| Week 16 Sits | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Dolphins |
| Tyrone Tracy | RB | Giants |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | Commanders |
| Cole Kmet | TE | Bears |
Quarterback Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Baker Mayfield in Week 16
After cooling down in the middle of the season because of injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Mayfield is coming off a solid fantasy game and is a Week 16 start.
The Dallas Cowboys have not faced a murder’s row of opposing quarterbacks this season but still have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
I’m not big on narratives, but Mike Evans' 1,000 receiving yard season streak is different, and the Buccaneers are going to try to reach that mark for the likely future Hall of Famer.
Mayfield also gets a weather bump from the friendly indoor night game at AT&T Stadium and a health bump as the Cowboys secondary is its top outside cornerback Trevon Diggs.
The Cowboys surrendered 3 passing touchdowns and 300 yards to both Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. A similar outcome is within Baker’s range in Week 16.
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray
For any fantasy managers who made it to the semifinals with Murray, congratulations and he is a start in Week 16.
Working in Murray’s favor this week is the fact that the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, allowing the most points per game and second-most yards against.
The Panthers have also provided some pushback on the other side of the ball, which raises Murray’s ceiling.
Murray is averaging 4.9 rushing fantasy points per game, and the Panthers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt, which not only provides a solid floor for Murray but also a ceiling if this game goes over the projected total.
Sit Tua Tagovailoa in Week 16
Week 16 provides a difficult passing matchup for Tagovailoa, making him a suitable sit candidate.
Tagovailoa will be without Jaylen Waddle, which allows defenses to provide more attention to Tyreek Hill.
Working against Tua is the fact that despite the record, the 49ers are a very good pass defense and are trending upward.
The 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy passing points per game, and Tagovailoa does not provide a rushing floor, which elevates his bust potential this week.
There is potential for this to be a great game for fantasy football, but there is more risk for Tua than I usually advise to take on.
Running back Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Rico Dowdle in Week 16
This is objectively the most difficult rushing matchup for Dowdle in recent weeks, but I believe Dowdle is still a solid start option in Week 16.
Since Week 12 when Mike McCarthy proclaimed Dowdle the lead back, he has out-touched Ezekiel Elliott, who has been a non-factor except with the Cowboys leading by multiple touchdowns last week.
Dowdle has done his damage on the ground in terms of yardage, but this week provides an opportunity for receiving points as the Cowboys are underdogs against an opponent who is trying to win a division.
The Buccaneers have allowed 42 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions per game to running backs, both the third-highest in the league.
With Elliott out of the picture, for the most part, Dowdle is set up for a solid floor as he had at least five targets against the Saints, Ravens, Lions, and Falcons, games in which the Cowboys trailed.
Should Dowdle be able to have some success on the ground or find the end zone, he’s a sneaky upside play this week.
Sit Tyrone Tracy in Week 16
Usage concerns combined with playing on the lowest-scoring offense makes Tyrone Tracy a fade for me in Week 16, allowing fantasy managers to sit the rookie running back.
The Giants have scored the fewest points this season and have the third-lowest team total this week, making any position player outside of Malik Nabers difficult to start for fantasy football.
Adding to the risk of starting Tracy is the fact he’s banged up with an ankle injury, and Devin Singletary took on a larger role last week.
Singletary vultured a goal-line touchdown and cut into Tracy’s rushing and receiving workload. Both running backs finished the game with 11 touches.
I’m leaning toward reducing risk this week and starting safer options if possible at running back.
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Wide Receiver Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Keenan Allen in Week 16
Allen is finishing the season strong. In a favorable matchup against the Lions, he is a must start in Week 16.
Allen has averaged over 10 targets and 1 touchdown per game over the past 4 weeks, providing a solid floor and ceiling for the man coverage beating slot receiver.
The Lions defense is ravaged by injuries, and Allen finished as the WR4 with 24.3 PPR points in Week 13 against Detroit, a week in which he entered halftime with 0 fantasy points.
Allen is proficient at beating man coverage and plays the majority in the slot.
The Lions lead the league in man coverage and receptions to slot receivers.
Start Jauan Jennings in Week 16
Start Jauan Jennings in Week 16 with confidence.
He continues to dominate the 49ers receivers in targets, and the 49ers could be forced to pass more with the first three running back options all being unavailable.
Jennings has received at least 5 targets and has not dipped below a 20% target per route rate over the past seven games.
Honorable Mention: Adam Thielen
Trusting 34-year-old Adam Thielen attached to Bryce Young in the semifinals takes a leap of faith, but it is an objectively great matchup, making him startable in Week 16.
The Panthers have had receivers provide some spike games, but Thielen is the most stable as he has remained on the field and in the slot at the highest rate since returning from his injury.
The Cardinals are the exact type of defense that doesn't mind allowing PPR scam, low upside receptions, providing a nice floor for Thielen.
Thielen leads all Panthers receivers in red zone targets since returning in Week 13 which provides more value to Thielen who has a solid fantasy floor.
Sit Terry McLaurin in Week 16
Week 16 provides a conundrum for fantasy managers since McLaurin has been one of the best value picks this season at wide receiver, but I will make a case to sit the fifth-highest scoring PPR wide receiver this season.
Out of the top 12 PPR wide receivers this season, only McLaurin and Brian Thomas have under 110 targets.
McLaurin has 92.
McLaurin has a 12% touchdown rate on receptions this season, nearly double his 6.6% rate entering the season.
During a season reliant on touchdowns, the Eagles defense provides a difficult opponent for the wide receiver who was limited to a single catch in their previous matchup.
It is difficult to trust Kliff Kingsbury to scheme targets for McLaurin, who has been glued to the LWR position for most of the season.
The Eagles have allowed the fewest points to outside receivers this season, and the Commanders completed four passes to wide receivers in the first meeting.
This is a difficult roster call for many fantasy managers this week.
Tight End Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Mark Andrews in Week 16
Andrews was held to 2 receptions in the previous matchup against the Steelers, but some underlying factors could provide Andrews with a solid game and a start in Week 16.
The availability of Rashod Bateman should improve Andrews' usage after he ran a route on only 60% of dropbacks in the previous matchup.
Andrews has also provided success against Cover 1, which has been Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite.
This season, Jackson has a 92.3% completion rate targeting Andrews against Cover 1 and a 52.7% completion rate targeting any other player.
Since 2020, Jackson has an EPA/drop back of 0.34 when targeting Andrews against Cover 1 compared to -0.01 on targets to any other receiving option.
Andrews remains a consistent touchdown threat. He leads the team with 10 receptions in the red zone and 8 touchdowns.
If Bateman doesn’t play, Andrews should be in fantasy lineups in Week 16.
Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz
Schultz would have been a miss for me last week, but the veteran tight end has another favorable matchup in Week 16 and remains a start candidate.
Schultz led all Texans in routes last week, and the Chiefs provide a favorable matchup against tight ends.
Sit Cole Kmet in Week 16
Kmet has one target over the past two weeks, providing too much risk with minimal upside and making him a sit candidate in Week 16.
The Bears have targeted tight ends at the third-lowest rate this season. Bears tight ends have 13.5% of the team’s targets.
The Detroit defense has the third-lowest target rate allowed to tight ends and plays the highest rate of man coverage in the league.
Kmet’s usage has dipped against man coverage this season. He has only been targeted on 8.8% of his routes against the coverage.
This is a difficult matchup for Kmet, and he should be left on the bench this week for fantasy football.
