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Divisional Round Prediction: Lamar Jackson Less Than 228.5 Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson has exceeded this passing yardage in four consecutive games.
In his previous meeting against the Bills, Jackson had just 156 passing yards in a massive 35-10 blowout.
We don't expect this score to be anywhere near that lopsided.
However, Jackson has fallen shy of this number in every single road playoff game he's played.
This week, he's without his No. 1 wide receiver and facing a defense that limits opposing passing attacks.
And he's facing that defense in the bitter cold, with single-digit wind chills expected. That tends to cap passing and knock production down.
Jackson has faced a Sean McDermott-led defense four times, never throwing for more than 162 yards in those games, but he was hyper-efficient in the first matchup this season between these teams.
I expect McDermott will devote more resources to stopping Derrick Henry than he did earlier this season, but I also expect that Jackson may increase his scramble rate on designed passing plays, which would reduce his overall attempts in general.
