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- Spread: Ohio State -8
- Total: O/U 45.5
- Defense Advantage: Not only are the Buckeyes the No. 1 scoring defense (12.2 PPG), but they are the least penalized defense at 29.1 yards per game.
- Offensive Mismatch: Ohio State quarterback Will Howard ranks No. 2 in QBR and will be one of the best quarterbacks the Notre Dame defense has faced all season.
- Bet365 bonus code SFA365: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets or get up to $1,000 back in first bet safety net.
- Risk Factors: Ohio State coach Ryan Day was just 2-4 in bowl games before this season's run to the championship game.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State: Best Bets and Predictions
It's been a great run of playoff games for favorites, but we'll see if that continues Monday as we look at our Notre Dame vs Ohio State preview. The Buckeyes are an 8-point favorite, with an over/under of 45.5 points at Bet365.
Do the Buckeyes Cover?
The Buckeyes opened as a 9.5-point favorite before moving to 8.5 at many sportsbooks. You can also find them at -8 at Bet365 and other sources, which is the best line available if you're backing Ohio State. But there are some concerns this game won't be another runaway win for the favorite (Ohio State), which is why you should consider taking the underdog with the points:
- Favorites are 8-2 ATS this postseason.
- But Notre Dame is 12-2-1 ATS and on a 10-0-1 ATS run.
- Notre Dame has outperformed the spread by an average of 10.1 points this season, the third-highest mark in the nation.
- Ohio State is 9-6 ATS and has only outperformed the spread by an average of +3.0 points.
More Value in the Under?
Defense wins championships, and this matchup brings defense, with both teams ranking in the top two in points allowed. But should under 45.5 be the side to hammer? We lean towards yes, but there might also be better value in taking the team total under for the Irish.
- Ohio State is No. 1 in points allowed (12.2 PPG), while Notre Dame is No. 2 (14.3 PPG).
- Ohio State has held every opponent to 17 points or fewer except for Oregon, who scored 32 and 21 points in two meetings.
- The Buckeyes have an elite rush defense, which could limit Notre Dame's run-heavy offense that lacks great pass catchers.
- Ohio State has scored fewer points in each playoff round, and they were tied at 21 before the 83-yard fumble return against Texas.
Luck of the Irish or Ryan Day's Time?
Whoever wins will let out a big sigh of relief. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes have spent several seasons not being able to win the big game when it matters. The Irish have not been this close to glory since getting blown out in the championship game by Alabama in 2012 (42-14).
Ohio State should win, but crazier things have happened on the big stage. People will complain about how these teams made it this far, but if you look at the whole of our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview, these probably have been the two best teams this season:
- In adjusting for schedule and scoring margins, the Buckeyes and Irish rank No. 1 and No. 2 in Simple Rating System as the most efficient teams in the nation.
- Notre Dame is No. 5 with 2.2 takeaways per game on defense compared to 1.3 for the Buckeyes.
- The Notre Dame defense has held quarterbacks to a 50.7% completion rate, the lowest in the NCAA.
- Ohio State's defense allows a nation-low 4.1 yards per play (Notre Dame is No. 5 at 4.6).
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