Welcome to the NFL Championship Round edition of The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview, by Rich Hribar.
What is The Worksheet from Rich Hribar?
The Worksheet is a comprehensive weekly fantasy football preview for each NFL game. Rich Hribar analyzes the matchup for every notable fantasy player for every game every week of the NFL season.
For those new to this article, just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean fantasy football stops.
The fantasy playoffs offer many new opportunities for playoff leagues, props, betting, and daily fantasy games.
With the Chiefs, Bills, Commanders, and Eagles all moving on, we are down to the final four teams and just two Sundays left in the NFL season.
Some Conference Championship Round recent history.
Home teams have dominated the closing round of the conference playoffs.
Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, home teams are 30-14 straight up this round.
Over the past 10 years, those home teams have had a robust 15-5 record.
Both road teams have won outright in the same season twice (2012 and 2018) since 2010.
Home teams have posted a 24-20 record against the spread.
Over the past three seasons, home teams are only 2-4 against the spread.
Those opening data points also tie into favorites here since 40 of those 44 home teams were also favored.
Favorites have an equally strong 30-14 record straight up over that span but a tighter 22-22 record against the spread.
As we touched on last week, however, while road teams and underdogs have not had much success pulling off upset wins, they have kept up based on the implied totals.
There have only been seven times over that 22-year expansion in which both favorites covered.
If you are a fan of seeing points scored, the Conference Championship games have also skewed towards going over the expected total since 2002, posting a 25-17-2 record towards the over during that span.
No. 1 seeds have fared well in Championship Games.
In our sample, the top seeds have a 23-8 record outright in the Championship round and an 18-13 record against the spread.
Most consumers love an underdog story, and we have a potential one with Washington, the lowest seed remaining in the postseason.
These lower seeds have had a tough run getting this deep in the NFL postseason and an even tougher ride when they have made it this far.
No. 6 seeds (no 7 seed has made it this far since the NFL added them) are 2-5 in the Championship Round since expansion.
Believe it or not, two of those teams were favored, with one winning (the 2010 Packers) and one losing (the 2008 Eagles).
The underdog No. 6 seeds have gone 1-4 (2-3 ATS) with that lone win coming from the 2005 Steelers (who went on to win the Super Bowl) in Denver.
While we have covered many top-down trends, the one thing that remains magnified in the postseason is winning the turnover battle.
Teams who have won the turnover battle are 7-0 in this year's playoffs.
In the Conference Championship since 2002, the team that has won the turnover battle has posted a 29-7 record.
Teams without a turnover and at least one takeaway are 14-2.
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This article will be updated throughout the week to reflect major news or injury implications.
Click the matchups below for the individual game previews.
NFL Championship Round Fantasy Football Matchups
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Eagles -- FREE | Sunday -- 3 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET |
