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AFC Championship Game Prediction: Ray Davis More Than 11.5 Rushing Yards
Ray Davis left the Bills' Wild Card game with a concussion.
In every other game since Week 6 (13 games), he received at least 3 rushes save for the Bills' 44-42 loss to the Rams in Week 14.
The Bills not only never led in the game, but they trailed by double digits much of the game and by a score of 31-14 in the middle of the third quarter.
If Buffalo is getting blown out by a margin like that, I expect Davis will go under this number.
Aside from the game with his concussion, Davis has run for 12+ yards on the ground in four of his last five games.
From Weeks 13-17 (removing Week 18 due to not playing starters), the Chiefs played the #1 easiest schedule of run offenses in the NFL:
#32 Raiders
#28 Steelers
#26 Browns
#25 Texans
#18 Chargers
Playing the #7 Bills RB rushing attack will certainly be a shock to their system.
In the last two games they played their starters, the Chiefs faced rushing attacks from the #25 Houston Texans and #28 Pittsburgh Steelers.
To those running backs, the Chiefs allowed:
- Texans: 107 yards at 4.7 YPC, +0.05 EPA/rush, 52% of rushes gained 5+ yards
- Steelers: 147 yards at 5.9 YPC, +0.05 EPA/rush, 48% of rushes gained 5+ yards
The #7 Bills rushing attack is substantially more efficient, and Davis could top this in a single rush.
He’s hit runs of 15 and 23 yards in the last two games he played the entire way through.
Davis tends to get virtually no work in the first quarter, but as long as the Bills aren’t in a big hole after that, he’ll work into the game and should top this on a couple of runs.
