With the AFC & NFC Championship Games upon us, we are coming to the end of the NFL DFS season.
That means we need to take full advantage of the time we have left, and these playoff short slates offer a lot of opportunities.
With that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Championship Round DFS.
Make sure to check out Rich Hribar's Worksheet previews for both games
Quarterback
As with all short slates, you can make a case for any of the four available quarterbacks, and anyone playing more than 10 lineups should have at least some exposure to all of them.
That said, the NFC Championship game is the most interesting because it has a wide range of outcomes.
Jayden Daniels – ($7,000 DK, $8,300 FD)
Based on where I expect the majority of the field to land at quarterback, I would pick Jayden Daniels if I were only building one lineup despite the very real possibility the Commanders have a tough time on offense.
Washington struggled to move the ball in seven of their eight quarters against the Eagles this season, scoring 32 total points before their 22-point comeback effort in the fourth quarter of Week 16.
Combined in the first three quarters of those two Eagles matchups, Daniels averaged 6.0 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns and an interception.
Of course, that has been something of the story for Daniels this season.
He ranked 21st in yards per attempt and 25th in touchdown rate among qualified quarterbacks in the first three quarters during the regular season.
Isolating just the fourth quarter, he ranked sixth and fourth in those same metrics.
We are also talking about very small samples if just isolating those two games against the Eagles, but on the other hand, we also have a much larger sample of the Eagles being formidable on defense.
All of those ifs, buts, and caveats point to the wide range of possibilities in this game.
It is possible the Commanders just keep cooking on offense, force the Eagles to throw — which would open up Jalen Hurts as a more serious DFS option — and the game goes over the total.
It is also possible Daniels again struggles early, Saquon Barkley runs through Washington's defense, and we get a lower-scoring affair.
That uncertainty creates a good buying opportunity for Hurts, who is likely to be the least rostered quarterback among the four, and it is likely Daniels will come in behind both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in terms of roster percentage despite his excellent playoff run to this point.
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Running Back
Running back is interesting because there is one clear, lock-it-in play despite what will be an astronomical roster percentage, but the rest of the running backs come with serious questions.
That suggests we will see a lot of four receiver lineups with a fair share of two tight end rosters, as well.
Simply putting a running back in the flex could be enough to differentiate in smaller field tournaments, and it is possible one of those less appealing running backs just falls into the end zone twice to pay off.
Especially given how difficult it is to predict targets for all four of these passing games, falling into the end zone might be enough.
Saquon Barkley – ($8,600 DK, $9,800 FD)
There is not much to say here.
Barkley will be in almost every lineup.
He should be in almost every lineup.
He scored 36.8 points and 30.0 points at DraftKings in his two matchups with the Commanders this season.
He has one game with fewer than 17 points at DraftKings since Week 10.
Barkley is both the most consistent and explosive fantasy player available on the slate.
Play him.
Eat the chalk and figure out how to get different elsewhere.
James Cook – ($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD)
Cook will likely be popular because the rest of the options are so unenticing. Who else are you going to play?
But I do think people might be a little too down on him overall, and simply pairing him, Barkley, and then mixing other running backs at the FLEX makes some sense.
First of all, the Chiefs' rush defense has not been as good of late.
Kansas City ranked second in yards per attempt allowed to running backs in the regular season, but they allowed 5.9 yards per carry to Steelers backs on Christmas and 4.7 YPC to Texans backs in the Divisional Round.
So while Cook struggled in his first matchup with this defense, it is fair to wonder if they are still playing at that same level.
Second, Cook's usage in the passing game last week was promising.
After running a route on 40.4% of the dropbacks in the regular season, he was up to 52.2% against the Ravens.
That was his fourth-highest rate of the season, and he also had his fourth-highest target share of the year.
Passing game usage was the one thing missing for Cook from a fantasy perspective this season, and it could help insulate him from the matchup.
That said, it might not insulate him from a negative game script.
Despite that promising usage, Cook once again did not run a route on third down against the Ravens. As usual, Ty Johnson got all of those snaps.
Brian Robinson Jr. – ($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD)
I actually think Austin Ekeler is a better option than Robinson in a vacuum, especially if you are building lineups around Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts, but he is going to be in a shocking number of lineups given he looks more like a floor play.
As we saw last week, Brian Robinson Jr. fits the bill as a back who can simply fall into the end zone twice.
Robinson saw 19 of the 43 goal-to-go carries in games he was active this season, five more than Daniels and 15 more than the next closest running back.
The Eagles were dominant against the run over the back half of the season, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to running backs (3rd) and 3 rushing touchdowns to the position from Week 10 on.
Robinson averaged just 3.6 yards per carry against Philly this season, but he did score 1 of those 3 touchdowns back in Week 11.
Kareem Hunt – ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD)
Keeping the theme of backs who might fall into the end zone, we have Kareem Hunt.
Hunt has not been efficient this season, but he does have all 6 of the backfield touches inside the five-yard line since Isiah Pacheco returned to the lineup.
Hunt also handled 61.5% of the running back carries last week, his highest rate in a game Pacheco played this season.
The best way to attack Buffalo's defense is through the run, but the Chiefs simply have not been effective enough on the ground to build their game plan around the running game.
Still, this is a soft matchup for Hunt, and history suggests he will be the back on the field when the Chiefs are near the end zone.
Wide Receiver
While the running back group does look soft, the receiver options are not much better and lack the surefire play at the top of the salary list.
We also have three teams with wide open target trees and another that does not want to pass unless they are forced to do it.
Because of that, we should see the roster rate spread out among a lot of options.
A.J. Brown – ($6,800 DK, $8,200 FD)
A.J. Brown has 3 receptions in the playoffs.
He has not had a genuinely good fantasy game since he played the Commanders back in Week 15.
He cost the most among receivers at both sites.
All of that suggests we should not be interested in him this week, but all of that also overlooks the possibility the Eagles are forced to throw by this juggernaut Commanders offense.
Brown has still seen 26.8% of Philadelphia's targets over the last three games he played, and he has been the target on 33.3% of their targets overall this season.
On 126 plays this season with all of Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert on the field, Brown leads the team with 32.6% of the targets, 49.8% of the air yards, and 2.08 yards per route run.
If the Eagles are forced to throw, Brown will get a lot of those targets.
That makes him a must-play with Jalen Hurts and almost a must-play with Jayden Daniels as well since a big Daniels game will likely force more passing from the Eagles — unless Daniels just tears it up in garbage time, which as mentioned above could happen.
Xavier Worthy – ($5,500 DK, $6,500 FD)
I also really like Marquise Brown based on his route rate spiking last week, and I will have all three of Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce in my main Patrick Mahomes lineup.
Worthy will likely be more popular than Brown, but the usage he got last week was promising even if it did not result in a big fantasy day.
Even with playoff Kelce back, Worthy earned a 25% target share, and he ran a route on 87.5% of the Kansas City dropbacks.
Worthy has also been playing more from the slot late in the season, and that should help him here.
Buffalo has allowed 9.2 yards per target to slot receivers (30th) compared to 8.4 yards per target to outside receivers (18th).
In his 4-61-1 performance against the Bills earlier this season, 2 of the catches, 41 of the yards, and the touchdown came from the slot despite Worthy only running 7 routes from inside in that game.
Khalil Shakir – ($5,700 DK, $6,400 FD)
I would not push back on any Bills pass catcher as a longshot play because they are all getting on the field — there is one listed below — but Khalil Shakir is the only reliable pass catcher for fantasy purposes.
He has run a route on 74.5% of the dropback thus far in the playoffs. No other Bills pass catcher is above 60%.
Shakir has been targeted on 31.7% of his routes and has seen 28.3% of the targets thus far in the playoffs.
Those numbers would have ranked second and fourth among qualified receivers in the regular season.
The Chiefs have also pushed targets to slot receivers this season.
Receivers from the slot have accounted for 52.1% of the receptions allowed by Kansas City to receivers, the highest rate in the league.
Shakir logged 8 catches for 70 yards when these two teams played in Week 11.
Tight End
Playoff Travis Kelce is back, and given the reasonable pricing of everyone else on the slate, forcing him into every lineup might make sense.
Still, there is a budget option available, as well.
Travis Kelce – ($6,000 DK, $6,800 FD)
Coming off a down 2023 season, Travis Kelce accounted for 27.8% of Kansas City's targets during last year's playoffs, averaging 8 catches, 89 yards, and scoring 3 touchdowns in four games.
Coming off an even worse 2024 season, Kelce turned 7 catches in 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans last week.
His 33.3% target share against the Texans was his third-highest in a game this season, and his 117 yards were a season high.
Perhaps that was something of a mirage, but given how his usage ramped up last season, there is reason to believe Kelce was holding something in the tank for this playoff run.
To throw some cold water, the Bills did shut down Kelce when these teams played in the regular season, but he has a much longer history of success against Buffalo.
Before Week 11, Kelce had scored 8 touchdowns with at least 5 receptions in every game between these teams in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Kelce has played three games against the Bills in the playoffs.
- 13-118-2
- 8-96-1
- 5-75-2
Dawson Knox – ($2,600 DK, $4,700 FD)
Dawson Knox is a longshot, salary saver that might not be necessary this week, but we have at least seen some promising usage for him in the playoffs.
He has run just 4 fewer routes than Dalton Kincaid, and he is tied for second on the Bills with 5 targets in the playoffs.
Knox likely needs to fall into the end zone to really pay off even at his lower price, but the Chiefs ranked dead last in yards per target allowed to tight ends in the regular season.
