Now that we're past Thanksgiving, we're hitting the home stretch of the 2021 NFL season. There is still a ton to be decided over the next six weeks — yes there are still six weeks left in the regular season — and these are 10 questions that could shape the rest of the season, the playoff picture, and the offseason.
1. Which team will take control of the NFC?
The idle Arizona Cardinals still sit with the best record in the conference at 9-2 with the best point differential in the NFC. But after a 38-28 win over the Los Angeles Rams, the Green Bay Packers have pulled within a half-game at 9-3. Per the playoff odds from FiveThirtyEight, the Cardinals have a 40% chance to get the first-round bye but the Packers are right behind them at 39%. Green Bay actually took the lead in Super Bowl odds at 17% as they head into a Week 13 bye.
At 8-3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t as close to a first-round bye (!7%) but they’re just behind the Cardinals and Packers for Super Bowl odds at 12%. Tampa Bay snuck past the Indianapolis Colts with a 38-31 win in Week 12. All three of these teams have found different ways to win over the course of the season.
Arizona was carried by Kyler Murray over the first part of the year but the offense has started to click as a unit and the Cardinals have won two of their past three games with Colt McCoy at quarterback. Murray is expected back for the Week 13 game against the Chicago Bears.
The Packers have worked around injuries and the secondary and the offensive line to continually produce on both sides of the ball. Against the Rams, the Packers relied heavily on quick game to get the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’s hands to avoid the pass rush of Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and co. Per TruMedia, 62.5% of Rodgers’s pass attempts came out within 2.5 seconds of the snap and 46.7% of his passes traveled short between 1-10 yards past the line of scrimmage. On those throws, Rodgers was 15-of-21 for 126 yards with 0.34 EPA per dropback.
Defensively, the Packers held Matthew Stafford to -0.21 EPA per dropback and pressured him on 37.5% of his dropbacks while only blitzing 2.5% of the time. In the secondary, Green Bay chose to devote both safeties to bracketing Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, especially on third down. While that led to long touchdowns for both Beckham on a sluggo and a one-on-one to Van Jefferson, the Rams couldn’t create much outside of that.
Deep passes haven’t been a problem for the Packers and they’ve been something Green Bay has been able to bait opponents into throwing. Green Bay’s defensive structure follows closing to the Brandon Staley structure with a two-high safety shell on 69% of snaps. Yet, only the Dolphins have seen more deep passes of 20 or more air yards than the Packers but Green Bay has allowed the lowest completion percentage in the league on those throws (22.8%).
Tampa Bay has been able to win in a few different ways this season and came into Week 12 as the top-ranked team by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Against the Colts, the Buccaneers relied on the ground game while Tom Brady had his second game in three weeks with negative EPA (-0.16). Leonard Fournette had 100 yards and three touchdowns on the ground (with another through the air) and put up 0.35 EPA per attempt. 47.1% of Fournette’s rushing attempts went for a first down, easily the highest of running backs with at least 10 carries in Week 12. But perhaps more importantly, none of Fournette’s carries lost yards despite averaging just 1.82 yards before contact per rush.
2. Can the Rams recover?
From Weeks 1-8, Matthew Stafford led the league in EPA per dropback by a mile. The gap between Stafford and the No. 2 quarterback was the same between the Nos. 2 and 16. But over the past three games, the Rams offense has fallen apart. Stafford has the second-worst EPA per dropback since Week 9 and he’s thrown a pick-6 in all three games.
Matthew Stafford's Ups and Downs, 2021
| Weeks | EPA/DB | Comp% | aDOT | YPA | PA% | Shotgun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 0.38 | 68.9% | 8.96 | 9.07 | 25.6% | 58.3% |
| 9-12 | -0.28 | 61.4% | 7.81 | 6.61 | 15.7% | 72.3% |
Part of this has been due to game script (some of the offense’s own doing) but the structure in how the Rams have thrown the ball has changed. Early in the season, Stafford was taking shots down the field and mixing up looks between shotgun and under center. Over the past three games, partly to protect the quarterback, the Rams have significantly upped the rate of shotgun while the average pass has decreased by over a yard and more throws are going short.
Matthew Stafford Target Depth, 2021
| Weeks | At/Behind Line | Short (1-10) | Intermediate (11-19) | Deep (20+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 20.9% | 44.3% | 21.2% | 13.6% |
| 9-12 | 18.9% | 52.8% | 18.1% | 10.2% |
From Weeks 1-8, the Rams were fourth in explosive pass rate. Since Week 9, that is down to 22nd. Stafford has reportedly been dealing with arm, elbow, ankle, and back pain but was quick to write off any of that impacting his play. Whatever the reason, the Los Angeles passing offense hasn’t been nearly as good over the most recent stretch of the season. While Week 10 could have been partially written off due to the circumstances of getting in Beckham late in the week and losing Robert Woods even later, but the concern was still there coming out of a bye in Week 11.
There has also been a decline in defensive performance. Early in the season, the Rams played a bend-but-don’t break style of defense but it has started to break over the past few weeks. Los Angeles still ranks 13th in EPA per play on defense but 23rd in the rate of plays that produce positive EPA.
The Rams are built around stars and the hope is those players will be good enough to right the ship. A Week 13 get-right game against the Jacksonville Jaguars could be a first step.
3. How Does the next month shape the AFC East?
The two best point differentials in the NFL belong to the New England Patriots (+146) and the Buffalo Bills (+144). The Patriots are currently on top of the AFC East by a half-game and sit as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They’ll play two times in the next four weeks, starting with a Monday Night Football matchup in Week 13.
New England has consistently gotten better and now ranks first in weighted DVOA and second overall after a 36-13 win over the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots have two of their best passing DVOA performances over the past three weeks and even with some ups and downs from Mac Jones, the offense has been able to progress. Jones is still just 26th in on-target rate on throws of 20 or more air yards, but the Patriots still rank third in explosive pass rate on offense. The 41-yard touchdown to Kendrick Bourne against the Titans was a perfect example of plus decision-making with a great play design and run after the catch to create an explosive play.
Meanwhile, the Bills have been the least consistent team in the league, ranked 32nd by a wide margin in Variance by Football Outsiders. In the past five weeks, since the week 8 bye, the Bills have alternated between effective and disappointing games with their second-lowest game by DVOA in Week 9 followed up by their third-highest, followed by their lowest, followed by their fourth-highest.
Per FiveThirtyEight, the Patriots currently have a 45% chance to win the division with a 22% shot at the top seed in the AFC. Those jump to 78% and 42% with a win in Week 13. The Bills grab an 80% chance to win the division with a win plus a 15% chance at the top seed.
4. Can the Chiefs roll through the AFC West?
For all the struggles the Kansas City Chiefs had in the early part of the season, they’ll reach December with a 7-4 record and a game lead over the other three teams (all 6-5) in the division. The Chiefs will come off a Week 12 bye with a four-game win streak with all three of their upcoming games against divisional opponents — home against the Broncos and Raiders then at the Chargers.
Over that four-game win streak, Patrick Mahomes ranks 12th in EPA and 11th in positive play rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts in that span, which aren’t his world-beater numbers from previous seasons, but well above what the offense produced earlier in 2021.
More importantly, the defense hasn’t been a league-worst unit it was over the first two months of the season. From Weeks 1-7, the Chiefs played man coverage on 31% of their pass snaps and blitzed 30% of the time. By success rate, Kansas City ranked 29th in man coverage and 17th while blitzing. Over their last four games, the Chiefs have kept the rates similar (32% man and 27% blitz) and those success rate ranks have gone to third for man coverage and fourth with the blitz.
5. what are the cowboys?
Dallas is 1-3 in their past four games with an offense that has looked disjointed at times. When everything has gone well for the Cowboys as the offense is even mostly healthy, they’ve had one of the best units in the league. But just about every position on the offense has dealt with some type of injury and a COVID situation still looms for Amari Cooper, though he is now expected back for Week 13, and that has spread to head coach Mike McCarthy, who will miss this week’s game.
As pieces around the offense have dropped off, so too has the offensive production. At full strength, the Dallas offense can have an answer for everything under Kellen Moore, but in two of the past three games, there hasn’t been much of a counter when things start to spiral. CeeDee Lamb should return this week and Tyron Smith made his return last week without any setbacks. But a question about the health and involvement of Ezekiel Elliott remains. A report came out after the Thanksgiving game that the Cowboys could limit Elliott’s workload or let him sit to allow his injuries to heal. Then Jerry Jones came out and said they expect Elliott to have a “serious load” against the Saints in Week 13. That’s probably not great, especially given the Cowboys are already 27th in EPA per rush since their Week 7 bye.
The defense might be the bigger question, a unit that has been productive but has needed different ways to do so. The Trevon Diggs turnover barrage has slowed and he ranks 43rd among cornerbacks in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage (which includes touchdowns and interceptions) but ranks 116th in yards allowed per coverage snap.
Dallas has shifted to more two-high pre-snap looks since their Week 7 bye, but they still run some of the heaviest single-high coverage in the league after the snap (58%). Where they’ve found success is with a four-man rush, which they’ve done at the second-highest rate in the league (75%) since their bye. The Cowboys are third in pressure rate when rushing four in that span, thanks to using Micah Parsons more often as an edge rusher.
6. What's next for the quarterbacks of the AFC North?
There might not be a division with quarterback uncertainty after the 2021 season than the AFC North.
Joe Burrow has developed in his second season, which leaves the Bengals as the only team in the division without an immediate question. Burrow’s quick game is still leading the offense but he’s also gotten better at the deep ball. Burrow is second among quarterbacks in on-target rate on throws of 20 or more air yards (67.5%), even though his completion percentage sits at just 37.5%, per SIS.
Early in the season, Lamar Jackson looked like an MVP favorite as he carried a Ravens offense without much help around him, but Baltimore has scored 16 or fewer points in each of the past three weeks and only 37% of Jackson’s pass attempts produced positive EPA in that stretch. He is coming off a four-interception game against the Browns in Week 12. Yet at 8-3, the Ravens currently sit as the top seed in the AFC with a 27% to finish that way, per FiveThirtyEight.
Baker Mayfield has played hurt over the past few weeks and that’s not really helping the quarterback or the offense. Over the past three weeks, only Daniel Jones has a lower rate of plays that produced positive EPA than Mayfield at 34.8%. Early in the season, Mayfield looks primed for an extension but the run of poor play over the past few weeks could set him up to play under his fifth-year option and a even a franchise tag before a long-term decision is made.
Then there is Ben Roethlisberger. There were some signs of life in the Pittsburgh offense after the bye that saw the Steelers run more from under center with an increase in play-action. But that tanked in a 41-10 loss to the Bengals in Week 12. At 5-5-1 the Steelers have just a 10% chance to make the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. Pittsburgh hasn’t done much to plan for the next stage after Roethlisberger, but this final stretch of the 2021 season might accelerate that need.
7. How Good can the Chargers be?
At 6-5, the Chargers have a 49% chance to make the playoffs. When clicking, this team can hang with the other top teams in the league, but that hasn’t been the case for a prolonged period of time. The Chargers are second in offensive DVOA, though there is a bit of a disconnect in how that’s happened. Early in the season, the Chargers were relying heavily on third down production from Justin Herbert.
The Chargers haven’t been as good on third downs lately, but they’ve manufactured better production on early downs, even still with short passes, by relying on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. It’s been e necessary evil by both design and personnel without a consistent vertical threat to open up the offense in that way. Overall, Herbert ranks ninth in EPA and 10th in positive play rate among quarterbacks.
Questions still surround the defense. The two-high Brandon Staley structure has been put on hold as resources have been moved up to stop the run over the past few weeks. But the biggest problem there is that the talent still isn’t enough to have a passable run defense. On top of that, injuries in the secondary have dropped a pass defense that was eighth in EPA per play before the bye to 28th after.
At their best, the Chargers have been a team able to hang around with other top opponents, but they might still be a year away from doing that consistently.
8. Can the Colts make a run?
Two games behind the Titans, the Colts aren’t likely to make a run at the division title. FiveThirtyEight has the Titans with a 96% chance to win the AFC South but given the injuries across the roster, it’s hard to see them as a better team than the Colts right now.
By DVOA, Indianapolis is eighth overall, seventh on offense, and 12th on defense. The Colts were able to hang with the Buccaneers and did so by throwing early and relying on Jonathan Taylor and the run game late. Carson Wentz has been up and down but has shown enough upside, especially over the past few weeks, as Frank Reich has gotten a better grasp on how to construct the offense.
Indianapolis gets what should be a layup against the Houston Texans in Week 13 before a Week 14 bye but then the real tests start. The Colts play the Patriots, Cardinals, and Raiders from Weeks 14-16.
Between the snaps played and a 53% chance to make the playoffs, it's clear the Colts will send a first-round pick to the Eagles in the Wentz deal. The team has been just good enough to justify that, but the next few weeks could show if they have something that could be built into a contender or if they'll sit somewhere in the middle despite their best efforts to improve.
9. How will the 2022 quarterback carousel start?
With the Seattle Seahawks at 3-8, Russell Wilson may be on his way out after trade rumors started last offseason. The Cam Newton era in Carolina started with a bang but a blowout loss to Miami took a hit to that momentum and could send the Panthers looking for their third new starter in three offseasons. Taylor Heinicke has played fine with some high-end flashes but Washington should want to upgrade that position if they want to set themselves up as contenders. The Eagles have built a more-than-functional offense around Jalen Hurts, but there are still some deficiencies as a passer that could hold the offense back. We're unfortunately going to do the whole Deshaun Watson thing again.
Last offseason had some veteran movement but also had a quarterback draft class highly regarded with five selected in the first round. That incoming rookie class is not the same this season, which could make some teams more desperate to make a move for a veteran option.
How these teams and these quarterbacks perform over the final few weeks of the season will set the stage for how wild the offseason could be.
10. Does anyone want to win mVP?
While there have been no standout teams this season, there have been no standout quarterbacks. On top of that, there haven’t been enough standout non-quarterback performances to open up a chance that another position wins the award. The betting favorite right now, per BetMGM is Tom Brady, though as we noted up top he’s had two underwhelming performances over the past few weeks.
But even those poor performances don’t stand out much for Brady because every quarterback has but up at least one stinker this season.
Kyler Murray leads the league in EPA per dropback but hasn’t played since Week 8. Performances good enough to keep the offense afloat from Colt McCoy could hurt Murray’s chances, but Murray could also be coming back to a more structured offense than the one he was carrying on his own early in the season. Added production there and a No. 1 seed could slide him in as the favorite one he returns.
With so many teams and quarterbacks so close, this could be an award won by a late-season run, including those we might have written off after some poor performances earlier in the season, including Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Patrick Mahomes.