Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season was a wild one. We had fun games between good teams and some unwatchable games between bad teams. We'll get to all of those. We also had the best- and worst-case scenarios for insanely long field goal attempts. What more could you want from a packed week of NFL football?
1. The Chargers Figured The Chiefs Out, but Figured Themselves Out More
It would be nearly impossible to believe the Kansas City Chiefs would have sole possession of last place in the AFC West after three weeks. But it makes sense given how they got there. Both in last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens and Sunday’s 30-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, it was more about the opponent figuring out themselves more than figuring out or thwarting the Chiefs.
For the Chargers, that self-discovery happened throughout the game. The Chargers started slow and conservative on offense but progressively opened things up as the game remained close.
Over the first two weeks, the Chargers had struggled on early downs but got bailed out by Justin Herbert on third down. Throughout the game, the offense figured out early downs, partly by keeping a similar script they used early in the season. Herbert again didn’t sling the ball down the field — per Next Gen Stats, his average depth of target was just 6.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage — but the Chargers found efficiency where they hadn’t before. That led to 0.45 EPA per early down pass play and a 61% success rate on early down passes, according to rbsdm.com.
The use of Mike Williams was a big driver in the efficiency uptick. Williams has been a career outside deep threat but he’s moved into a more short-intermediate receiver in the Joe Lombardi offense. THat Michael Thomas-ish role didn’t completely click during the first two weeks, but Williams had seven catches on nine targets for 122 yards. His aDOT this season is just 9.5, which is down significantly from 15-plus over the past few seasons.
Mike Williams, 2018-2021
| Year | aDOT | Catch % |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 15.2 | 65.15% |
| 2019 | 17.4 | 54.55% |
| 2020 | 15.1 | 56.47% |
| 2021 | 9.4 | 70.97% |
The Chargers also found success in the red zone, where they couldn’t finish early in the season. Los Angeles led the league in yards per drive over the first two weeks of the season but ranked 29th in points per red zone trip and 31st in touchdowns per red zone trip. Against the Chiefs, the Chargers were more efficient with both the design and execution of those plays. Take the 16-yard touchdown to Austin Ekeler in the second quarter.
Orbit motion from Keenan Allen drew in corner Mike Hughes (21) to cover Mike Williams, who went straight up the seam. That motion and switch in coverage left the entire left side of the field open for Ekeler with an easy catch-and-run.
Throughout the game, the Chargers also did what teams have to do to beat the Chiefs — they forced and took advantage of mistakes. Kansas City turned the ball over four times and three of those turned into scoring drives for the Chargers. The Chiefs fumbled twice and Mahomes threw two interceptions. The first was bounced off an open receiver’s hands on a no-look pass, but that just led to a Chargers punt.
Mahomes, of course, didn’t play poorly. He averaged 0.25 EPA per play and finished with a QBR of 64.6. The Chargers’ defense was able to hold in the explosive plays, which kept the Chiefs from quickly driving down the field. Early in the game, Mahomes used his legs to advance the ball when the downfield routes were covered — that success on the ground played into the big difference between Mahomes’s EPA per play (0.25) and EPA per pass (0.08).
The Chiefs didn’t have much success when they tried to do deep. Mahomes has 4-of-8 on intermediate passes between 11-19 air yards, but those resulted in just 55 yards and an interception. Mahomes was just 1-of-5 on passes of 20 or more air yards with an interception and that one completion was for 28 yards.
Even with the mistakes, the Chiefs took a 24-21 lead on an 8-yard touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman with just 6:43 left in the game. On the following Chargers drive, the offense was locked in. The first play of the drive was a 43-yard pass to Mike Williams that was set up by motion at the snap,
The Chargers came out with a tight bunch to the right side with Williams isolated on the left but Jalen Guyton (15) ran jet motion, which changed the coverage responsibilities. Corner DeAndre Baker (30) backed off in coverage as safety Daniel Sorensen (49) dropped down into the box but after the snap, both stayed in on Guyton. That left Williams wide open on a busted coverage that set up a game-tying field goal.
The lead could have been taken on that drive but penalties that plagued the Chargers in the first two weeks popped up again. A touchdown on second-and-goal was nullified because of an illegal shift and the Chargers couldn’t push the ball into the end zone on the following plays.
On the next drive, the Chargers forced a Mahomes interception on a deep throw outside the pocket. Coverage was great down the field as Joey Bosa and Christian Covington closed in on Mahomes. He sailed a pass over the head of Travis Kelce and into the arms of Alohi Gilman.
With 48 seconds left in the game, the Chargers found themselves with a fourth-and-4 from the Kansas City 30-yard line. They kept the offense out on the field, but a false start pushed them back to a fourth-and-9. Too long for a field goal, the Chargers stayed on the field and got a defensive pass interference penalty on DeAndre Baker.
That eventually brought up a first-and-goal from the Kansas City 4-yard line with 32 seconds left. Herbert threw a fade to Williams in the end zone for a touchdown that gave the Chargers a 30-24 lead. That call, according to Williams, was made by Herbert in the huddle. The quarterback told Williams to “watch for the fade” on what was called as a run play. Williams was the only player on the field ready for a pass as the rest of the Chargers blocked for a run.
Much could be made about the Chiefs failing to create big plays and making mistakes throughout the game, but this might be more about a proof of concept for the Chargers. The offense that looked disjointed for two weeks came through with many of the same concepts that hadn’t worked previously. The scheme did open up and the quarterback didn’t have to play Superman on every third down. The defense is structurally sound and even if it doesn’t have the overall talent of the Rams from 2020, the philosophy has put players in a position to succeed.
The AFC West is now wide open and there might not be a pushover in the division.
2. The Rams Are Rolling
If a game against a good team was what you needed to believe Matthew Stafford provides the Rams with a significant upgrade, this was it. Stafford started slow and that might even be to his benefit to highlight what he brings to the Rams. Early in the game, Stafford was off and he missed a few open throws. DeSean Jackson could have had two long touchdowns, but the pair failed to connect.
In previous versions of the Rams offense, those shot plays were rare and if they were missed, there might not be an opportunity to hit them again. But with Stafford at quarterback, the Rams are going to continue to take those chances throughout the game. Stafford only went 2-of-5 on passes over 20 air yards, but one connection was a 75-yard touchdown to Jackson at the start of the second half that gave the Rans a 21-7 lead.
Surrounding those shot plays, the Rams still have the McVayian schemed openings that lifted the offense through the Goff years. Tyler Higbee continues to be a useful weapon on screens and up the seam. 2021 has completely unlocked Cooper Kupp, who had 96 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets for 0.41 EPA per play and a 61% success rate.
Late in the second quarter, the Rams came out in empty just outside the red zone. Kupp was the inside receiver on the trips side to the right and he ran a slot wheel under the routes of Jackson and Robert Woods. They play got the ball to the 2-yard line.
On the next play, the Rams lined up with a trips bunch to the left and Kupp was again the inside receiver. The Rams ran a pick with Woods and Van Jefferson, which easily freed Kupp in the end zone for an open touchdown that gave the Rams a 14-7 lead before halftime.
The nastiest Kupp move came midway through the third quarter. The Rams again were in empty in the red zone. Kupp lined up as the outside receiver to the right. The Rams and Kupp have killed on whip routes (this was a theme near the end zone throughout the league on Sunday) but the Rams used that to set up cornerback Carlton Davis. Kupp broke to the outside then stuttered and head-faked as if he was going to break back in on a whip, but stayed to the outside. That got the corner flat-footed and allowed Kupp to dive in for a touchdown.
Through three weeks, Kupp leads the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. That pace won’t keep up, but that’s ok because the Rams have other options to spread the ball around.
The Stafford era hasn’t been perfect and likely won’t be for the entire season, but in his first three games as a Ram, Stafford has averaged 0.61, 0.38, and 0.46 EPA per play. That’ll work. At worst, they showed the offense will be good enough to hang with any team in the league. Coming into Week 3, the Buccaneers were considered the best team in the league with a top unit on offense and defense. The Rams were able to survive the Tampa Bay offense and worked around the strengths of the defense.
It’s hard to imagine a better first three weeks for the 3-0 Rams, who now head into back-to-back divisional games against the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.
3. Josh Allen Bounces Back, WFT Can't Defend
Early in the season regression to the mean came for both Josh Allen and the Washington Football Team defense. In Buffalo’s 43-21 victory, one of them was able to bounce back and questions remain glaring for the other.
Josh Allen was back on his bullshit. After a terrible Week 1 and an unimpressive Week 2 despite the points, Allen looked the closest to the 2020 version of himself he has all season. The Bills have continued to spread the ball out — they’re using more four- and five-receiver sets than any other team in the league — and that pass-heavy spread game is going to come with a lot of variance.
Against Washington, Allen was able to hit some of the big plays that had been missing during the first two weeks. The Bills sprinkled in the passes over the middle to Cole Beasley that hadn’t been connecting — he led the team with 13 targets, 11 receptions, and 98 yards — and combined that with some explosive plays down the field.
Allen looked like the high upside version early in the first quarter on a 28-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders. Allen was forced out of the pocket to his right and he threw a perfect strike to the end zone on the move.
Late in the second quarter, Allen threw a dart against pressure and hit Sanders up the seam behind the corner and before the safety could come over.
Allen has kept his depth of target fairly consistent over the first three weeks of the season, but this was the first game where those throws looked comfortable and in sync. Here is his average depth of target and completion percentage over expectation for the first three weeks of the 2021 season:
Josh Allen, 2021
| Week | aDOT | CPOE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.9 | -7.1% |
| 2 | 9.4 | -4.5% |
| 3 | 9.6 | 9.2% |
For Washington, this defense remains a concern. The Bills were 9-for-15 on third down and over the first three weeks, Washington has allowed a 58.7% conversion rate on third down. Last season, that figure was 37.5%.
If there is a bright spot, it’s that Washington’s defense has been fine on early downs, 17th in EPA per play per rbsdm.com. But it’s a huge split on third downs.
Washington Defense, 2021
| Split | EPA/Play Allowed | Success Rate Allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Early Downs | 0.03 | 43% |
| Third Down | 0.75 | 66.7% |
Even the average ranking on early downs would be below expectation for what many believed to be the ceiling for this Washington defense. The main pieces in place just haven’t hit their stride. Washington has struggled to get consistent pressure and entered the Week just 13th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. When the pressure hasn’t arrived, the coverage hasn’t held up quite as well as it did last season.
Maybe there is a turnaround on the horizon, but Washington isn’t a team built to carry an average defense.
4. Justin Fields Was Left Alone, Except By The Browns Pass Rush
Justin Fields never really had a chance in his starting debut against the Cleveland Browns. Matt Nagy and the Bears didn’t do much to help the rookie quarterback and Fields couldn’t do much to help himself, either.
The Browns came into this game ranked fifth in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate and while the Bears ranked 14th in Pass Block WIn Rate, this was an offensive line that was completely overmatched play after play.
Instead of starting the day with some play-action and boots to slow the pass rush and move the pocket, Fields was asked to play from empty and that turned into a disaster quickly. Fields ran himself into some sacks as the day progressed, but his average time of 2.63 seconds in the pocket was not that of a player holding the ball too long.
Per Next Gen Stats, Fields was pressured on 55.2% of his dropbacks. Myles Garrett, responsible for 4.5 of FIelds’s nine sacks taken, had seven pressure and Jadeveon Clowney had eight.
Things weren’t much better when Fields did try to throw the ball. 45% of Fields’s pass attempts against the Browns were in a tight window, which Next Gen Stats describes as a yard or fewer of separation. That’s an insane number. So many offenses are figuring out ways to eliminate those tight-window throws and even as other rookies struggle, they’re only forcing passes into tight windows on around 15% of their attempts.
The quarterback isn’t completely blameless with that many sacks, that many forced throws, and only 68 passing yards but it’s hard to imagine Fields put into a worse scenario for his first game. Little was done to make the job easier on the quarterback — no designed runs, no boots, nothing easy — and the quarterback could only make it worse.
5. How to (and not to) scheme an offense featuring the Bengals and Steelers
The two quarterbacks who struggled most with the deep ball last season play in the AFC North. One is a young quarterback whose strength has always been more about accuracy than raw arm strength. The other is an aging veteran who just doesn’t have the juice in his arm anymore.
Joe Burrow and Ben Roethlisberger squared off on Sunday and the 24-10 Bengals victory was an example of how to scheme around a perceived lack of arm strength and how not to. These offenses really aren’t that different. They want to get the ball out quickly to avoid bad offensive lines and they want to get the ball in the hands of a plus group of receivers.
The Bengals did an excellent job of that against the Steelers. Burrow faced little pressure (thanks in part to the absence of both T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith) and got the ball out relatively quiclky. His 2.41 second to throw was the third-fastest of the week, per Next Gen Stats. But even with that quick release, Burrow was still able to throw down the field with an aDOT of 8.4. Burrow’s average completion came 7.1 yards past the line of scrimmage, which was the fourth-highest figure of the week.
Burrow wasn’t throwing bombs (a nice 34-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase aside) but he was consistently able to use his accuracy to hit the intermediate area of the field.
On the other side, the Steelers’ offense gets worse by the week. Roethlisberger continues to get the ball out so quick, it’s both impossible for the defense to pressure him but also impossible to create anything positive for the offense. Against the Bengals. Roethlisberger averaged 2.28 seconds to throw, yet he was still sacked four times and hit another three.
Roethlisberger’s average depth of target was 5.6 in the game and his average completion came 3.3 yards past the line of scrimmage. Najee Harris was targeted 19 times. He averaged 7.3 yards per reception.
6. It’s Time To Start Trey Lance
Through three weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has the third-lowest aDOT in the league and has a negative CPOE. Trey Lance was brought into the game in the red zone for a do-or-die play at the end of the first half with no time remaining on the clock.
Garoppolo wasn’t the reason the 49ers lost 30-28 to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night — though the bad sack-fumble on the second-to-last drive didn’t help — but he continues to hold the offense back just enough that everything needs to be schemed open in order for it to work. He was 0-for-2 with an interception on passes that traveled over 20 air yards on Sunday night.
It’s hard to be perfect and that’s what the offense currently needs to be with Garoppolo under center. Lance may be raw, but he also offers more answers when things go wrong. He also won’t be left out by the scheme like some other head coach and rookie quarterback combinations.
The 49ers have the Seahawks and Cardinals before a bye in Week 6. If it’s not time for Lance quite yet, it could be soon.
7. A Quick Conversation about Kliff
Kyler Murray can throw the ball to the end zone from midfield, right? He can and if he can’t he can get close to it. We’ve seen Murray make miracles on Hail Mary attempts before. So why would Kliff Kingsbury run out his kicker for a 68-yard field goal attempt at the end of the first half? By now, you know that missed kick was returned 109 yards for a touchdown.
In the end, it didn’t matter as the Cardinals still easily handled the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-19 but it plays into a bigger conversation around Kingsbury. Why is he always making things more difficult than they need to be? Kingsbury has generally been a plus decisionmaker on fourth downs, but he’s had some huge high profile mistakes, this kick included.
The offense, even in its success, still leaves a bit to be desired. The offense relies heavily on Murray making something happen and the schemed-up advantages the Cardinals have mostly come in the run game. Arizona is moving receivers around and getting the ball downfield more often, but this offense could still be opened up more for one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league.
Murray has the second-highest CPOE in the league, per Next Gen Stats, and it still feels like he’s doing that in spite of the structure around him, not because of it.
8. Chart of the day
We haven’t talked much about the Broncos’ start in this space, but even with some bad opponents, it’s worth noting what Denver has done, especially on offense. Teddy Bridgewater was supposed to come in and be the ultimate game manager but he’s been slinging the ball down the field. He has the eighth-highest aDOT in the league and through two weeks he had the highest aDOT from a clean pocket by a significant margin. He currently leads the league in completion percentage over expectation. Per Next Gen Stats.
The degree of difficulty will pick up a bit with the Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, and Browns over the next four weeks, but this offense has already exceeded expectations and has been a reason for three easy wins instead of just being along for the ride.
9. Play of the Day
A NEW NFL RECORD.
66 YARDS. OFF THE CROSSBAR. @JTUCK9. pic.twitter.com/x8DXOoCuFH
— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2021
The Ravens should have blown out the Lions. Lamar Jackson could have had a huge passing day and Marquise Brown could have had near 200 receiving yards if he hadn’t dropped some open and perfectly placed passes. But Baltimore’s self-inflicted wounds allowed Detroit to hang around and the Ravens needed a 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker to win the game as time expired. It’s Justin Tucker, so of course he hit it.
10. Checking In On The 0-3 teams
Not everything can go as planned and there are five 0-3 teams through three weeks. Let’s give a little check-in on how they got here and the future outlook.
Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz hobbled on two sprained ankles through a poor performance against a Tennessee Titans defense that hasn’t stopped much this season. Wentz averaged -0.13 EPA per play and has yet to look remotely comfortable at quarterback this season. It might already be time for the Colts to limit Wentz’s snaps to keep him from the 75% mark that would turn their pick given to the Eagles into a first-rounder.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The defense was always going to be bad but the offense has been the biggest disappointment. Trevor Lawrence is tied for the league lead with seven interceptions and he hasn’t gotten a lot of help from the offensive scheme. The easy throws aren’t really there, which has forced Lawrence to get aggressive when nothing is there. Lawrence is talented enough to turn it around, but he might have to do that in spite of the current offense.
New York Giants: The Giants just put up 14 points against a Falcons defense that had allowed 80 points in the first two games. The Giants might not be quite as bad as their 0-3 record but there aren’t a lot of positives. A team built on discipline continues to make dumb mistakes every week, and that’s from the players and the coaching staff. This is a team built to win now by the investments on the books and it’s hard to see improvement in 2022 when the Giants are already almost up against the cap. Even if the Giants aren’t as bad as 0-3 might seem, it’s nearly impossible to look at any pillar of the franchise and feel good about its future.
New York Jets: The Jets have looked overmatched in every game they’ve played this season. Zach Wilson is tied with Lawrence for the interception lead and he has found the NFL is a little different than BYU. Injuries on the offensive line haven’t helped, but the scheme intended to make this easier for a quarterback has yet to be fully formed. There are some pieces in place to build around, but this might be closer to a Year 0 for Robert Saleh and co.
Detroit Lions: No one would confuse the Lions with a good team, but they’ve been able to hang in all three games they played. Only the second half of the Packers game really got away from them. They’ll continue to be limited at quarterback, but this could be close to a 2019 Dolphins situation where a team is losing but something positive is being built.
