1st & 10: Wild Bills-Rams, Shootout In Seattle, Another Falcons Meltdown & More From Week 3

Week 3 gave us a number of exciting games with intriguing matchups and we haven't even gotten to the Chiefs-Ravens showdown on Monday Night Football. With so much going on so early in the season, everyone is still in a feeling-out process. Even if we can't take everything we see at face value, we're still seeing a whole lot of football. So let's dive into the action from Week 3.

1. The Bills won, but the Rams didn’t completely lose

A matchup between two surprisingly dominant teams became the first exciting game of the day. What looked to be a Buffalo Bills blowout turned into a Bills comeback victory, 35-32 over the Los Angeles Rams.

The Bills have unlocked Josh Allen by putting him in a place he can win and Allen is taking advantage of his surroundings. Allen had one of the highest average depth of target numbers for the week (9.9) but most of that came to relatively open throws. Only 12.5% of Allen’s attempts were into tight windows in Week 3, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But it’s not just getting those types of throws, Allen has been better than expected at connecting on them. His +7.8% completion percentage over expectation was the fifth-highest of the week.

Buffalo has continued to spread to things out, both in formation and where the ball is going. Despite just a 49-yard day from Stefon Diggs and a no-catch two-target game for John Brown, Allen still threw for 9.4 yards per attempt and four touchdowns, good for a QBR of 83.6.

Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has continued to use a heavy dose of 10 personnel and that paid off against the Rams on Sunday, where both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley were able to take advantage of the secondary depth of the Rams while the top corners, namely Jalen Ramsey, focused on Diggs and Brown.

Nothing might show how well the Buffalo passing offense is clicking than by how Davis has been worked into the offense. Davis, a rookie fourth-round pick from UCF, caught all four of his targets for 81 yards in Week 3. Davis was a deep threat in college and the Bills had started to sprinkle some routes in for him over the first two weeks, but made an effort to get him the ball against the Rams.

Davis had a big catch early in the second quarter on a 1st and 10 from the Buffalo 34-yard line following a Jared Goff interception. The Bills came out in 11 personnel and had Davis stacked with Brown just outside the hash to the right. Before the snap, the Brown went on jet motion and the Bills used play-action with a bootleg from Allen to his left. Davis ran a deep corner and all of the movement before and after the snap left him with a wide-open path for a 39-yard gain.

 

 

Later on a 2nd and 6 near midfield just inside the two-minute warning, the Bills came out empty in 10 personnel with running back Devin Singletary out wide. Buffalo used vertical routes from Diggs and Brown to the left and Singeltary to the right to hold the corners and safeties. A shallow out from Beasley held both the slot corner and linebacker, which allowed Davis to get his route behind Micah Kiser (59) in the intermediate void for a 21-yard gain.

 

 

On the next play, the Bills kept the same personnel grouping on the field and sent Beasley on a slot wheel for a 29-yard gain

 

 

They would score a touchdown two plays later to take a 21-3 lead into halftime. They even scored on their first drive of the second half after a Rams turnover on downs for a haunted 28-3 lead.

But the second half mostly belonged to the Rams, which was a significant positive despite the loss. This isn’t some claim for a moral victory, but one of the faults of the play-action heavy scheme of Sean McVay and the play of Goff over the past few years is that it’s close to perfect when clicking and the Rams can dictate the action, but it falls apart when they trail and are forced off their plan.

Goff was a significantly worse quarterback last season when the Rams were trailing, as evidenced by his EPA split on a similar number of pass attempts ahead and behind.

Jared Goff Splits By Score, 2019

That the Rams were able to get back into this game hints toward an element that was not there for this team in the past. Goff kept the ball moving and finished the game nearly perfect throwing to the intermediate area of the field (11-19 air yards), 6-of-7 for 137 yards. 

Goff actually finished the game with a higher EPA per play (0.33) and first down rate (41%) than Allen (0.22, 38%), per nflfastR data. Allen pressed a little as the Rams started to come back and LA’s go-ahead touchdown with under five minutes remaining in the game was set up by an Allen fumble on an Aaron Donald sack. Allen was able to drive the Bills down the field and, thanks to a generous pass interference penalty on a 4th and 8, threw the game-winning three-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Kroft with just 15 seconds left in the game.

Both of these quarterbacks played well overall and the good play was able to outweigh the bad — each had a bad interception, Allen had the fumble and a few other wild throws. These continue to be positive signs for two passers who have shown signs of going beyond the ideal situations they have been put in to start the season.

2. Welcome to a post-defense Seattle

With offseason trades for Quinton Dunbar and Jamal Adams, it was believed the Seattle Seahawks could have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Adams has been as good as, or possibly better than, advertised but his contributions alone have not stopped the Seahawks from being an incredibly inefficient defense as a whole. Seattle has been a stout run defense (the Seahawks entered the week fifth in rush defense DVOA) and Ezekiel Elliott was held to 34 yards on 14 carries, but the pass defense (29th in DVOA) has been a problem.

Even at 3-0 after a 38-31 win over the Dallas Cowboys, it remains a concern. Dak Prescott, a great quarterback in his own right, threw for 472 yards against Seattle on Sunday. With 522 yards from the Cowboys, the Seahawks have now allowed the second-most yards through three games in NFL history, behind only the 2019 Miami Dolphins. In Week 1, that could have been written off as a Falcons team built to pass needing to pass to come back in a blowout. But in the past two weeks, the Seahawks have played close games against the Patriots and Cowboys. It’s not just a garbage time issue.

The secondary is a big concern, considering the talent there. The expectation was the secondary would be able to make up for a lackluster pass rush and that just hasn’t been the case through three weeks. Seattle was just 27th in pressure rate after Week 2 per Sports Info Solutions, but they were 12th by ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate metric. Early wins without pressure suggest there’s not much coverage stopping the opposing quarterback from getting the ball out quickly.

That was partly the case against Dallas in Week 3. Seattle had 10 quarterback hits on Prescott but he was sacked just twice for a total loss of 11 yards. The secondary can’t allow an effort like that to be wasted because they might not come all that often. 

It’s a good thing the Seahawks have embraced their heavy early-down passing approach because if not, this would be a team in trouble. Imagine the deficits Seattle would be in with the offensive philosophy over the past few seasons combined with this defense. They’d be down by 30 before Wilson would be allowed to run wild in the fourth quarter. 

In a close game, Seattle again relied on the pass, especially on early downs. The Seahawks had a 38-19 pass-run split on early downs in this game (66.7% pass) and the EPA split was even bigger — 0.15 EPA per dropback to -0.18 EPA per rushing attempt. 

Russ, once again, cooked. Wilson threw for five touchdowns and could have had a sixth had D.K. Metcalf just kept his momentum going into the end zone on a wide-open bomb that turned into a fumble through the end zone.

The biggest positive about the Seattle passing game is it’s not just asking Wilson to do what he’s done in the fourth quarter over a full game. The spacing and passing concepts are vastly improved. Wilson was able to throw deep and not have many dangerous throws (just 9.5% into tight windows in Week 3, per Next Gen Stats). That’s coming from better playcalling and design to every level of the field. Tyler Lockett had a wide-open touchdown off a no huddle play-action pass midway through the first quarter.

This is especially true in the red zone, where the Seahawks have been unstoppable. The Seahawks have scored a touchdown on every red zone trip this season. That included three more touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday. Two to Lockett and one to Jacob Hollister.

Lockett’s first was just him beating rookie corner Trevon Diggs off the line and sprinting to the corner of the end zone. The second used heavy pre-snap motion to mess with the Dallas coverage rules and eventually sent Lockett on a crossing route through the end zone, which no Cowboys defender picked up. 

 

 

Then Hollister’s came from a quick snap out of the huddle with Hollister on a flat route as the fullback.

 

 

Seattle is changing up looks and pace all over the field and opposing defenses haven’t been able to keep up. It’s going to be necessary for this to continue because this won’t be the last shootout the Seahawks find themselves in this season.

The Cowboys find themselves in a similar situation, but without the high-level talent on defense. But even at 1-2, they still look like the best team in the NFC East by a mile and also have the offense to handle a few more shootouts against non-Seahawks teams.

3. Bad Cam Didn’t Matter

The story around the New England Patriots for the first two weeks was the electric play of Cam Newton. Newton was carrying the Patriots with his legs — he led the league in EPA on the ground through two weeks, per SIS — and he was making things happen through the air (ninth in passing EPA). What would the Patriots look like if Newton continued to be this good?

On Sunday, the question actually answered was what would happen if Newton wasn’t that good at all? New England got maybe the best answer it could receive. Without Newton near his best, the Patriots still put up over 30 points in a 36-20 win over the previously undefeated Las Vegas Raiders.

Newton averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt, his average completion was just 1.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (the lowest figure for a quarterback this week), and was a non-factor on the ground with nine attempts for just 27 yards. He even had a terrible interception after extending a play into the waiting arms of Jonathan Abram. All of that combined for a QBR of only 26.6. 

While Newton didn’t take over on the ground as he had over the first two weeks, the Patriots still did as a team. New England rushed for 250 yards. Including huge days for both Sony Michel (9-117) and Rex Burkhead (6-49-2). 

The Patriots were able to work an overzealous Las Vegas defense for a few big runs. Michel had a 38-yard run early in the third quarter that worked to get two safeties out of position.

 

 

New England leaned heavily on the run for early downs (55% run) but they were able to stay efficient with 0.34 EPA per play and a 52% success rate. Newton was actually still quite good on early-down passes (0.23 EPA per play) but everything fell apart on third down. The early down success is a good sign for the future, though, since performance there is more predictive than it is on third downs.

This defense isn’t near what it was last season and that shouldn’t be expected due to regression and all the talent lost. While chunk plays can be had at a higher clip this season, there are still signs this is a Patriots defense.

In this game, that involved taking away Darren Waller in the passing game. Waller was targeted just four times and finished with just two receptions for nine yards. The Patriots rotated corners, safeties, and linebackers on the tight end and made sure he wasn’t the player who would beat them through the air. Without Henry Ruggs, the Raiders really had no one else to be that big play threat. Opposing teams will take a Hunter Renfrow game (6-84-1) if it means shutting down other options.

These Patriots are still finding their way and while they’d probably prefer Newton to have consistently great games, it was a positive lesson to learn they might not need him to be Superman every week.

4. Aaron Rodgers Is Comfortable

There have been signs the Aaron Rodgers of old is back. He’s made the incredible throws and he’s making them more consistently in 2020. He’s going deep and he’s going there often. Even without Davante Adams, Rodgers attempted seven passes 20 or more yards beyond the scrimmage against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night in a 37-30 win. He only connected on two, but they went for gains of 72 and 49 yards.

But perhaps what’s more beneficial to the offense are the throws Rodgers is making underneath. In previous seasons, Rodgers would look for the big play and if he didn’t find it, he’d throw the ball away. Last year, no team threw the ball between 1-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage less frequently than the Packers (38%). Green Bay relied heavily on throws behind the line and shots down the field.

Against the Saints, Rodgers was 9-of-12 for 55 yards and two touchdowns from 1-10 yards beyond the line. Some of that includes plays in the red zone, where there’s no choice but to go short, but there’s also been a willingness to give those shorter throws a chance.

It’s not just that these shorter throws coming more often this season, but they’re also schemed up in the structure of the offense. It’s not just a slant-flat concept that gives little upside. Packers receivers are getting space to work after the catch and Rodgers have been able to give them the opportunity to do so. This shows a trust Rodgers hasn’t had in an offensive scheme in years. This also significantly raises the floor of the offense, changing a number of throwaways to rhythm throws with a chance to gain yards, especially with Adams back on the field.

Specifically against the Saints, the Packers were able to use these throws to beat the blitz. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, New Orleans blitzed Rodgers on 36.4% of his dropbacks. Instead of trying to force plays down the field, Rodgers got the ball out quickly.

Of course, there was still no shortage of big play attempts and Rodgers used play-action on 51.5% of his dropbacks to create time to open things up down the field. There appears to be a healthy mix of what Rodgers wants to do and what the scheme is supposed to do. It’s been years since those two things were in synch in Green Bay, but it’s been a promising start to the 2020 season. 

5. Falcons Do It Again

Keep a joke going long enough and it turns from funny to sad. That’s where the Atlanta Falcons are right now. After blowing a huge lead to the Cowboys last week, the Falcons picked up where they left off, not just blowing a 26-10 lead to the Chicago Bears, but doing so as the Bears benched Mitchell Trubisky for Nick Foles.

Something needs to change for the Falcons. It’s not just that they blow these leads in wild, unheard-of fashion. But there’s always little things along the way that continue to stick out.

Late in the fourth quarter, the Bears faced a 4th and 6 from their own 42-yard line with the score still 26-10. Atlanta rushed just three and Chicago sent only two receivers into a route. Still, somehow, Ted Ginn was wide open on a corner route that gained 29 yards.

 

 

A 37-yard touchdown pass to Allen Robinson on the next drive featured two point-blank missed tackles. Then the game-winner to Anthony Miller featured an overaggressive 0-blitz on 3rd and 6, which asked way too much of bad corners to hold up in man coverage with no safety, which they didn’t.

 

 

Right now Dan Quinn is a defensive head coach whose defense has been the biggest problem for the team over the past few seasons. Mistakes on that side of the ball compound game management issues, which lead to far too frequent blown leads. 

Atlanta’s offense hit early but went three-and-out for their final three drives with the lead, then the game ended on a Matt Ryan interception. A complete failure all around.

6. The Failed Contenders

At some point, the Eagles, Texans, and Vikings were considered contenders. After three weeks, they’re a combined 0-8-1. What’s going on?

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings spent too much of the first two games trying to go back to their run-heavy ways. That’s always been the way Mike Zimmer wanted his team to play, but the defense wasn’t good enough for that too last. The Vikings saw themselves trail too early in games and had to work too hard to pull themselves out of the hole. In Week 3, they opened things up and were able to go shot for shot with the Tennesee Titans, but a young and hurting defense couldn’t create stops.

That forced Kirk Cousins to try way too much. Despite 175 yards for rookie receiver Justin Jefferson and 9.3 yards per attempt, Cousins finished with a QBR of 44.1. On Sunday Night Football, Cris Collinsworth described the Packers defense as one built for shootouts. The Vikings have one of those too, but they don’t have the offense for it.

Houston Texans: No team was hit harder by an early-season gauntlet than the Texans, who opened with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. But what that early-season schedule showed is that the Texans are so far away from those three teams and it’s mostly due to a lack of top-tier talent outside of quarterback. Deshaun Watson had a good day against the Steelers’ defense and outplayed Ben Roethlisberger on the other side, but Watson had no help anywhere else.

The offensive game plan puts too much on Watson’s plate in a deep shot or nothing setup. There was no running game and the Houston defense couldn’t stop Pittsburgh from running all over. All of this falls on the general manager, who is also the head coach, so nothing will change anytime soon.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have teetered between a dumpster fire and clusterf*ck. Carson Wentz has no confidence throwing to anyone who isn’t a tight end and he’s consistently forced to throw to anyone who’s not a tight end. The offensive game plans have also been a mess with only deep shots in Week 1, no deep shots in Week 2, and another low aDOT game in Week 3. Wentz’s average completion against the Bengals came just 3.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. There’s no rhythm and a lack of big plays to overcome the down-to-down inconsistency.

Doug Pederson is currently handling pressure worse than his quarterback and his decision to punt from midfield with 18 seconds left in a tied overtime game is inexcusable and the actual excuse doesn’t hold up well.

7. Panthers with potential

The Carolina Panthers were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league in 2020. They weren’t flat out tanking but the defense was expected to be the league’s worst and the offense was a big unknown. The offense has exceeded expectations and was able to move the ball in Week 3 even without Christian McCaffery. Heading into the week, the passing offense was 17th in DVOA.

It seemed the plan for the Panthers was to establish an offense and allow young players to develop on defense. While that might not be the optimal rebuild plan and Carolina might find itself just successful enough to miss out on a top-end quarterback, such as Trevor Lawrence in the draft — Sunday’s 21-16 win over the Los Angeles Chargers is a step toward that being a reality. But, the Panthers are getting flashes from young players they hope to build around in the future.

Heading into the week, Brian Burns ranked third among edge rushers in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. But he didn’t have a quarterback hit through two games. The coverage was so poor, Burns could win early and not even get a chance at the quarterback. That changed when Burns was able to get his first hit and sack of the season on rookie Justin Herbert. Burns was also consistently around the quarterback causing disruption and it’s a positive sign for his future play.

After a rough Week 1, Jeremy Chinn has progressed quickly. He was all around the ball in Week 3 and added a quarterback hit and tackle for loss. Chinn was a player we highlighted before the season in the hybrid role and he’s already showing his upside.

These Panthers might not be good and they might be too good to be completely bad. This might just be a team built to go 6-10. It’s a rebuilding no man’s land, but they are doing this finding the young pieces that will also be a major part of the next great Panthers team.

8. Chart of the Day

Weekly Tom Brady in the Buccaneers offense update. Brady looked significantly more comfortable and the offense looked as if it was starting to click. Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were on the field and healthy. Evans got two short touchdowns (his only two receptions of the day) and Godwin was able to pick up a 30-yarder. Rob Gronkowski even got involved with six receptions. It wasn’t perfect and Brady’s QBR was only 52.7 but it was another positive step for an offense that should continue to look better as the season progresses.

9. Play of the Day

Kyler Murray didn’t have his best day throwing the ball in a 26-23 loss to the Detroit Lions and Jeffery Okudah eventually got him back with an interception later in the game, but on this boot, Murray juked Okudah out of his shoes.

 

Murray has already reached the level as a runner where even if the defense guesses correctly, it might not matter because he can run past them anyway.

10. New York, New York

Football in New York is bad. Before you say Buffalo, get out of here with your technicalities. The Giants and Jets are awful, probably the two worst teams in the league. In back-to-back weeks they each got blown out by a severely injured San Francisco 49ers team.

The biggest problem for these teams is there isn’t much positive to look forward to in the future. Sure, there’s bound to change, but looking at these rosters now isn’t great. That’s especially the case at quarterback where both of these teams used high first-round picks in the hopes of having the quarterback of the future Sam Darnold might be beyond saving and Daniel Jones has yet to outgrow his turnovers.

Here are all quarterbacks from 2020 in EPA per play and CPOE when the game is between 20% and 80% win probability, which filters out garbage time. Jones is the worst and Darnold is right there with him. This is New York City football in 2020.