1st & 10: Justin Herbert Goes Deep, The Ravens Fall Short, Kyler Murray Returns & More From Week 13

In our first full post-Thanksgiving week, we got a handful of interesting games. A few stars stood out, no teams are winless, and we can prep for one of the more fun Monday Night Football matchups we've had in a while (with another great one next week).

1. The Chargers Knew the Assignment

During the week, we asked 10 questions about the remainder of the 2021 season. One of those questions was how good could the Los Angeles Chargers be. Turns out the answer is pretty good!

In a 41-22 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chargers did all the things we could have hoped and asked for in order for this team to reach its full potential. Much of that started with getting Justin Herbert to throw the ball down the field more on early downs. It’s been mentioned in this column many times and we even wrote about it separately early in the season. But against the Bengals, Herbert let it rip. His average depth of target overall was 10.7 per NFL Next Gen Stats and he took a number of deep shots on early downs.

Some of those shots, especially the two deep passes to Mike Williams were helped by running some shorter routes underneath. On the 41-yard play on a second-and-11 early in the first quarter, the Chargers came out in a tight 2×2 set with Williams outside to the left and Keenan Allen to the right. Against a single-high safety look from the Bengals, Williams ran a deep corner while Allen ran a crossing route underneath. Safety Jessie Bates (30) drove on Allen’s route, which left Williams one-on-one deep.

 

 

Later in the first quarter, the Chargers came out in trips to the right on a first-and-10. Allen was in the slot with Williams in the middle and Jalen Guyton outside. Against a two-high defense, Allen ran an out that again pulled down the deep safety to that side and left Williams one-on-one for a slot fade and a 47-yard pickup.

 

 

In the second quarter, Herbert shot a cannon to Guyton while the quarterback moved to his right and fired a pass deep to the left as Guyton got matched up with a safety carrying him down the field. This was technically an underthrown ball that caused defensive pass interference but, first of all, it was caught and second, the ball traveled 61.2 yards in the air from release point to catch, according to Next Gen Stats.

 

 

Herbert was 3-of-5 for 132 yards with a touchdown and interception on throws of 20 or more air yards. It was one of his most productive days of the season throwing deep.

Justin Herbert Deep Passes by Game, 2021

An offensive explosion was always in the cards for the Chargers — and arguably those cards could have been played more frequently — but the performance from the LA defense was something that could potentially raise the ceiling of the team.

That was especially the case for run defense, where the Chargers had been gashed all season. The Branon Staley defense bases with two-high safeties and light boxes that force the second-level players to come downhill to fit the run. Without the personnel to really make that work, the Chargers started stacking the box more often after their bye. Even with that strategy, they remained one of the league’s worst run defenses. But against a Bengals offense that had ridden Joe Mixon of late, the Chargers were able to slow down the run game without forcing the issue.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mixon ran into a light box on just 10.5% of his rushing attempts. He only picked up 54 yards on the ground, averaged -0.96 rushing yards over expectation, and -0.80 EPA per attempt, a figure hurt even more by a lost fumble.

The pass defense was also big, especially a pass rush that lost Joey Bosa during the game. Los Angeles had 11 quarterback hits in the game and sacked Joe Burrow six times. The Chargers had some different pressure looks, including a double safety blitz with Derwin James and Nasir Adderly splitting a sack on a third-and-7 in the third quarter.

Despite the final score, the Chargers did not completely dominate this game. After a 24-0 start, the Bengals got the game all the way back to 24-22. Burrow made a number of big throws, including a few to Tee Higgins, who had nine receptions, 138 yards, and a touchdown on 14 targets.

But while the Bengals came back and made it a more competitive game, the Chargers had a 33-0 advantage in the first and fourth quarters.

Still, this is a game where both sides should come out feeling good about future prospects and both have an inside track to the playoffs at 7-5. The Chargers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC with a 76% chance to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight, up from a 49% chance after Week 12. The Bengals now sit at 42% as the seventh seed. Cincinnati has the best point differential in the AFC North and is just a game behind a struggling Baltimore Ravens team.

2. The Ravens were stopped just short

The Ravens were oh so close, but fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-19 after a failed two-point conversion with 12 seconds left in the game.

Let’s start with that decision. A few models, notably EdjSports and NextGenStats, favored kicking in that situation to tie the game. The call to go for two and the win was not purely analytically driven, though that is a situation where numbers would point toward the conversion attempt. The idea is an offense has better odds of converting the two-point try than getting the ball and winning in overtime. It’s likely the models that leaned toward kicking had the Ravens favored should the game go to overtime as the better team, even on the road.

But the Ravens had already lost Marlon Humphry, who is believed to be out for the rest of the season, which significantly cut Baltimore’s depth at cornerback. John Harbaugh cited that as the main reason he chose to go for two and the win.

And the Ravens came close. T.J. Watt read the play the entire way and rushed Lamar Jackson, which forced an open throw to Mark Andrews just wide.

It was a fitting end for a Ravens team that has not played well of late. After starting the season on fire by spreading to pass, Baltimore has struggled to find a groove through the air and on the ground. Jackson was able to survive a four-interception performance last week but inconsistencies throughout the game, both in execution and schematically, could not be overcome.

Jackson had a QBR of 42.7 (meaning a team with Jackson’s performance would be expected to win 42.7% of the time) but he averaged 0.21 EPA per dropback, per rbsdm.com, though with just a 45% success rate. Even some of the stats signal some of the ups and downs in Jackson’s game. He was just 1-for-3 on passes of 20 or more air yards with a -11% completion percentage over expectation.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers were able to do enough to take advantage of a depleted Baltimore defense. Ben Roethlisberger went just 1-for-5 on deep passes, but was efficient underneath and still managed to average 0.30 EPA per dropback while his average completion occurred just 3.3 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Baltimore couldn’t pressure Roethlisberger because of how quickly he got the ball out (2.24 seconds on average, the quickest of the week) and only managed three quarterback hits.

It was all about hits when the Steelers were on defense. Pittsburgh had 10 in the game and six of them came from Watt, who also had 3.5 sacks. Per Next Gen Stats, Watt had 12 pressures in the game (a 37.5% rate), which is the most pressures by a player in a game over the past two seasons.

At 6-5-1, Pittsburgh only has an 18% chance to make the playoffs, but the Steelers will be a team that has a huge impact on the playoffs with games against the Vikings, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, and Ravens left on the schedule.

Baltimore’s loss knocked them from the top seed in the AFC with just an 11% chance to claim the bye. That drops to 9% if the New England Patriots win on Monday night. The Ravens are still favored to win the division (62%) with an 82% chance at the playoffs per FiveThirtyEight, but the offense needs to be figured out, especially as the losses continue to pile up on the defense.

3. Tom Brady kept throwing

Tom Brady threw 51 passes in a 30-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons. It was the 21st time in Brady’s career that he threw at least 51 passes in a game and the second time this season. Before that, Brady hadn’t thrown 50 passes in a game since 2015, Brady is 44 years old. 

The Buccaneers didn’t have to keep throwing but they did to get the lead. Tampa Bay’s big three receivers were all heavily involved. Chris Godwin had 15 receptions and 143 yards on 17 targets. Mike Evans had seven catches and 99 yards on 10 targets. Rob Gronkowski had four receptions for 58 yards, but two of those went for touchdowns.

Gronkowski has made a huge impact for the Buccaneers for the past two seasons and he is a key to the offense. When he is on the field, he continues to demand attention in the middle of the field, which opens up the offense for others. The Buccaneers have been twice as good when Gronk has been on the field (0.14 EPA per play) than when he’s been off it (0.07) this season.

What’s most impressive about the current version of Gronkowski is that he can still get his. On his first touchdown, Gronkowski was the point man in a bunch. HE worked through a physical press off the line from Jaylinn Hawkins but the near 60-pound difference between the two (Hawkins is listed at 208 pounds and Gronkowski at 265) was evident. Gronk pushed through the contact, continued his crosser, and ran free to the end zone.

 

 

On his second touchdown, Gronkowski was isolated to the right side against safety Erik Harris. Gronk again pushed through contact to create separation and an opening for a fade into the end zone where he was easily able to come down with a contested catch.

 

 

While Brady and the Buccaneers have embraced the deep ball during the quarterback’s tenure, the offense kept things mostly quick and short on Sunday. Brady got the ball out quickly (2.39 average seconds to throw) and his average pass traveled just six yards past the line of scrimmage. That came out to 0.32 EPA per dropback, which is even more impressive when considering that includes a pick-6 to Marlon Davidson on a well-read screen.

 

 

Interior pressure came through for the Buccaneers as both Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh had three quarterback hits each.

Tampa Bay is in a tricky spot in the NFC, where they have the third-best odds to earn the first-round bye (20%) but also have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl (14%)> 

4. The Cardinals & Rams Prep For a meeting

The top two teams in the NFC West faced teams they should beat easily and it’s nice that they did. The Arizona Cardinals had a 33-22 win over the Chicago Bears while the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-7. In both cases, these teams checked some boxes needed against inferior opponents.

For the Cardinals, it was the first game back for Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals went 2-1 in Murray’s absence with Colt McCoy after so much of Arizona’s success early in the season came from Murray taking games over himself. Murray didn’t have to do too much in this game with only 15 pass attempts but he had two touchdowns on those 15 throws, including a perfectly placed ball down the sideline to Hopkins on a fourth-and-2 early in the first quarter.

 

 

Murray averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and added 59 yards with touchdowns on the ground. He was back.

Arizona’s defense was the highlight, though. The Cardinals picked off Andy Dalton four times with three other passes defensed. The Cardinals have turned into one of the league’s best coverage units and those picks came from all across the defense — two from safeties, one from Byron Murphy, and one from Zach Alen.

The Cardinals kept control of the NFC with the win and now have a 44% chance to grab the first-round bye in the conference. They have a big Monday Night Football matchup against the Rams next week.

Speaking of the Rams, a blowout win over the Jaguars might not be too impressive on the surface, but it was a needed get-right game for the offense. The alternative of playing a close game against Jacksonville would have raised even more questions.

Matthew Stafford has three passing touchdowns while the offense still figured some things out. The Rams moved the pocket a bit more and even had a play where Stafford booted to the left and Cooper Kupp ran Leak, hidden as an inline receiver.

The Rams were also able to take advantage of some curious decisions from the Jaguars. On Kupp’s touchdown reception (he finished with 139 yards on eight catches), Jacksonville blitzed the slot corner across from him and allowed Kupp to set up an option route against a deep safety. That did not work for the defense.

 

 

If the Rams win next week, their odds of winning the division only go to 10%, per FiveThirtyEight, because the Cardinals would still have a game advantage, but it will make the final stretch of the season much more interesting.

5. Mahomes still doesn't look like mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Denver Broncos 22-9 and that kept the Chiefs in the driver’s seat for the AFC West, but Patrick Mahomes once again did not look good.

Mahomes completed just 51.7% of his passes, 20.4% below expectation. His aDOT was just 5.6 and he only threw into tight windows on 3.4% of his pass attempts. Yet there were still a number of misses. The usual caveat of drops and receiver error apply, but this has been a slightly longer and more concerning pattern for Mahomes. He threw four passes further than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and completed just one. Per rbsdm.com, Mahomes averaged -0.15 EPA per dropback with a 37% success rate.

The two leading receivers for Kansas City were the two running backs — Darrel Williams led the team with 60 yards and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was second with just 28 yards. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill combined for just five catches and 49 yards.

Luckily the defense has kicked into another gear over the past few weeks. The Chiefs picked off Teddy Bridgewater twice and blitzed him on 34.8% of his dropbacks. They got pressure on 30.4% of his total dropbacks.

There is still an outside shot the Chiefs grab the No. 1 seed (15-16% depending on the MNF result) but they still haven’t completely looked like the Chiefs. Kansas City has flashed on each side of the ball at points, but there has not been a sustained full-team success. Each unit has the high-end good enough to win games, but on their own, it might not be enough to contend. The Chiefs still have a few weeks to get this all figured out.

6. The …sighs… wild NFC Wild Card race

The bottom of the NFC playoff picture has been wild throughout the season. Because none of those teams are particularly good, there are seven teams within a game of each other for the final two wild card spots after the Rams.

Here is a quick look at how some of the playoff odds have changed over the past few weeks.

The Saints’ odds have tanked since they lost Jameis Winston and Thursday night’s showing from Taysom Hill did not inspire much confidence for the future, especially if he’s going to play through a finger injury.

Minnesota has been up and down and the Vikings’ playoff odds might not have dropped enough for a team that just lost to the Detroit Lions. The Eagles are just hanging on, currently the eighth seed with an easy schedule.

If the playoffs started today, the two teams to make it would be the Washington Football Team and San Francisco 49ers. Washington has been on a streak of four-straight wins since their bye. The Football Team has gotten around the inconsistencies of Taylor Heinicke, who tried to throw an interception against the Las Vegas Raiders late in the fourth quarter, but managed to set up a field goal attempt that won the game 17-15.

San Francisco lost to Seattle 30-23 in a typically nuts NFC West divisional matchup. It’s hard to take too much away but JImmy Garoppolo looked like the type of quarterback you replace with a No. 3 overall pick. Garoppolo had some nice throws down the sideline, which usually just don’t exist in his arsenal but he threw two bad interceptions and ended the game with a QBR of 33.

George Kittle carried the team and will be the most important piece for any potential playoff run. Without Deebo Samuel, Kittle had nine receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns. He even had a rushing attempt for five yards.

If the rest of the team can stay afloat while superstars like KIttle and a healthy Samuel takeover, the 49ers could be dangerous. But a quarterback performance like the one they just had could sink the entire thing. So goes the rollercoaster of Jimmy G.

7. Gardner Minshew steps in

Filling in for Jalen Hurts, Gardner Minshew threw for 242 yards (9.2 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns in a 33-18 win over the New York Jets.

While it’s always fun to see Minshew do anything, the performance should not get us too carried away. The Jets were wildly outmatched in their secondary and had no answers for Dallas Goedert early in the game. Goedert had two open touchdowns and finished the day with 105 yards on six catches. It was more of a coming out day for the Eagles’ top tight end than their backup quarterback.

Minshew’s 14% completion percentage over expectation led the day, but it came in the way we already knew Minshew could win. He’s been accurate as a quick processor in the short area and his aDOT was only 6.0 with a 4.3-yard average depth of completion.

There might be some clamoring for a new quarterback in Philadelphia but the upside is much higher with Hurts as the starter. Nick Sirianni said that would be the case with Hurts healthy after the Eagles’ bye. 

8. CHART OF THE DAY

Tua Tagovailoa continues to play his game. The RPO-heavy offense has led to short passes and a ton of completions. It’s working right now and the New York Giants couldn’t do much to stop it, as the Dolphins rolled 20-9. Tagovailoa got the ball out in 2.33 seconds, which eliminated any pass rush and put stress on the secondary. Jaylen Waddle continued his breakout with 90 yards on nine receptions.

This offense has worked, but it shouldn’t be sustainable. There is a high degree of difficultly and a small margin for error when the quarterback has to complete over 70% of his passes to be successful. For now, the Dolphins are able to run with it but they’ll eventually need to open things up to see what they can actually create in this offense.

9. PLAY OF THE DAY

 

The Detroit Lions won. There’s not really much more we need to say about it. 

10. The Panthers Fired Joe Brady

Early in the first quarter of the first slate of games on Sunday, it was reported the Carolina Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The NFL is notorious for Friday afternoon news dumps, but a Sunday afternoon news dump, while games were being played, was a new one.

The Panthers have been terrible on offense this year, 30th in EPA per play, but it’s hard to fault Brady for this year’s struggles. Early in the season, he had people believing Sam Darold was an improved quarterback due to the training wheels Brady had on the offense. But once the true Darnold came out, it was hard to cover up.

Last season, the Panthers were a top-10 offense by DVOA as late as Week 14 before injuries sapped the play of Teddy Bridgewater.

All of this was a high degree of difficulty for an offensive coach and Brady did the best with what he was given, an impressive coaching job.

There were reports this stemmed from a lack of a commitment to the run in a game without Christian McCaffery and when the Panthers were trailing big early. It’s hard to believe that could be the main reason.

Brady had NFL coaching interviews last offseason and should still be an in-demand coach for the next hiring cycle. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see him latch on as a consultant for a contender for the final stretch of the season.

For the Panthers, this is just another piece of the franchise making moves to make moves. Nothing about the firing makes a ton of sense, especially given the pieces in place for the offense to work with. If this firing was made because of the run game, then the Panthers have a lot more to worry about than just some of their personnel choices during the David Tepper era. Either way, it feels like Carolina lacks a plan with how they want to build this franchise. Hiring Brady was one of the signals that this regime might know what they’re doing. Firing him after a season and a half leaves significantly more questions than answers.