1st & 10: How The Chiefs Created Space, JETS!, Tom Brady’s Deep Ball & More From Week 15

Week 15 only had one game between two teams with a winning record but we got plenty of excitement from the rest of the slate, including the shock of the season from the league's worst team.

1. What will it take for Patrick Mahomes to have a bad game?

Patrick Mahomes was held to a career-low 5.4 yards per attempt. It didn’t matter. Mahomes still finished with three passing touchdowns and even with four sacks taken, averaged 0.11 EPA per dropback, according to nflfastR, with a 72.5 QBR in a 32-29 Kansas City Chiefs win over the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints did what they could on defense but as most teams have found out this season, sometimes that’s just not enough. New Orleans was another team that often kept two-high safeties against the Chiefs in order to stop the deep pass and on that, they succeeded. Mahomes had another 0-for on passes that traveled 20 or more yards in the air. He was 0-for-6 in this game, his second-worst deep passing performance of his career. Here’s an update to a table that we featured just two weeks ago:

Patrick Mahomes 0-for Deep Passing, Career

Of course, what’s amazing is how well Mahomes and the Chiefs are able to adjust when they need other ways to move the ball. This wasn’t a game where Mahomes was ready to throw short and worked to get the ball out quickly. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Mahomes averaged 3.26 seconds to throw, which was the longest of any quarterback in Week 15, and his average pass traveled 9.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, tied for the seventh-highest mark of the week and nearly a yard above his 8.6-yard season average.

But Mahomes’s average completion was just 5.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and the 4.3-yard difference between target and completion was the highest of the week among quarterbacks.

Where the Chiefs did have success in getting the ball where they wanted was on third down. Mahomes and the Chiefs consistently throw past the sticks on third down, especially third and long, and that has positioned Mahomes as the leader in EPA per dropback and success rate on third downs this season.

Throughout the game, the Saints varied how they tried to attack the Chefs on third down. There were a few three-man rushes, which allowed Mahomes to sit in the pocket and wait for an opening. Even when the Saints tried to disguise the rush and did get pressure, Mahomes worked himself into space and converted, like this 23-yard gain to Sammy Watkins on a third-and-9 near the end of the first quarter.

 

 

Third down efficiency helped swing the game and the aggressiveness was a big part of it. Kansas CIty converted 9-of-18 third downs but New Orleans was just 1-of-11. That’s how the Saints were able to outgain the Chiefs 5.5 yards per play to 4.5 but still come up short. New Orleans averaged 0.11 EPA per play on early downs but just -0.79 on third and fourth downs (they were 1-1 on fourth).

While the Chiefs are arguably the league’s best offense, they have not been effective in the red zone. Entering the week, Kansas City ranked 16th in points per red zone trip and 21st in touchdowns per red zone trip. For a team that excels in creating space to open up the offense, it can make sense that the red zone would give them trouble given how much the available field condenses.

All four Chiefs touchdowns came inside the red zone and three of them came from creating as much space as possible in the condensed area.

The first touchdown to Tyreek Hill came out with a triple stack to the right of the formation before Hill motioned to the left and then back to the right before the snap. At the snap, he motioned back to the left before he quickly pivoted back toward the right and worked his way into empty space in the end zone. Watch Marshon Lattimore (23) get lost in all the motion, which opens up the lane for the touchdown.

 

 

Kansas City’s second touchdown, on the opening play of the second quarter, used a diamond alignment the Chiefs and other teams have used to create a mismatch for screens. Typically, the front three defenders are able to create enough of a wall to allow the trailing receiver enough space to push into the end zone. The Chiefs took that a step further as Mahomes barely dropped back and quickly pitched the ball to Travis Kelce.

 

 

The Chiefs’ final touchdown came on an option from the 13-yard line. Mahomes took the inside path as Marcus Davenport (92) over-pursued to the outside. Mahomes waited just long enough for a pitch backwards to Le’Veon Bell, who had just enough on an angle against incoming safety P.J. Williams (26) to get into the end zone.

 

 

Those kinds of designs can make the Chiefs incredibly dangerous but then there are other times when Mahomes just does something insane and no design or defense matters. That's what happened on the 5-yard touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman in the third quarter. The Saints had everything covered on a designed Mahomes rollout to the left. Mahomes backpedaled as pressure came and he somehow hit Hardman in the back corner of the end zone.

 

 

This is where Hardman was in the end zone when Mahomes released the ball:

This was how the game went on both sides. The Saints mostly played good defense and kept the Chiefs from breaking the big play. Unfortunately, Kansas City was able to take advantage of opportunities in the high-variance areas on third down and inside the red zone while the New Orleans offense couldn’t convert at a high enough rate in those places. There were also the fluke plays that need to be capitalized on like the fumbled punt by Demarcus Robinson that turned a potential touchdown into just a safety for New Orleans.

Drew Brees struggled in his return from broken ribs and a collapsed lung. Brees labored through most of the game and completed just 44.1% of his passes for a week-worst -16.3% completion percentage over expectation, per Next Gen Stats. Brees’s final line (-0.08 EPA per dropback, 23.6 QBR) could have looked even worse with multiple passes that could have been intercepted throughout the game. 

Brees’s game is based on his pin-point accuracy and typically high CPOE (he was the leader in 2017 and 2018 and finished second over the full-season last year) but he was off on too many passes and forced a throw into tight coverage (a yard or fewer of separation) on 29.4% of his pass attempts in the game. Brees’s full season average is just 13%, the sixth-lowest rate among quarterbacks.

With Michael Thomas back on IR, the Saints will have to figure out a better way to fluidly move the ball with Brees back under center. Without that, they won’t be able to hang with other teams in the NFC, let alone the Chiefs.

2. J-E-T-S

It wouldn’t be hyperbole to say the future landscape of the NFL was significantly altered on Sunday. With a 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Rams, the previously winless New York Jets lost their spot for the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a shot at Trevor Lawrence. The Jacksonville Jaguars, also 1-13 now sit first overall with a strength of schedule tiebreaker.

What made the Jets’ win over the Rams so strange is that nothing was really all that strange in the flow of the game. Usually if a clearly inferior team upsets one of the top teams in a conference, there’s a lot of fluky play within the course of the game and while the Jets did get an interception and a blocked punt, those weren’t the main factors in the upset. The Jets just played kind of well and were the beneficiary of one of the Jared Goff games when everything becomes harder than it has to be.

The Jets took an early lead when Ty Johnson went uncovered as the checkdown option on a third-and-5 mesh play from the 18-yard line. It was actually the eighth-straight opening drive with a Jets score.

 

 

Throughout the game, the Jets were able to pressure Goff and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Goff averaged over three seconds to throw, per Next Gen Stats, but his average pass went just 5.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The Jets hit the quarterback eight times, which produced three sacks.

The breaks did work for the Jets early. Quinnen Williams had the first sack on the Rams’ third drive which started at the end of the first quarter. After the Rams were pushed back, the Jets got the blocked punt, which set up a field goal. On the next drive, Nathan Shepherd blew through the interior of the Rams’ line and sacked Goff on second down. Later in the drive, Goff threw an interception to rookie Bryce Hall, who made an outstanding play on the ball.

 

 

That set up a field goal and a 13-0 lead. From there, the Jets didn’t make a lot of other mistakes and the Rams couldn’t catch up. It was one of the first times this season the Rams couldn’t create much on the ground. Last year’s offensive line struggled but even through some injuries in 2020, the Rams had been able to consistently gain leverage in the trenches. Robert Woods had a 40-yard carry on a jet sweep, but all three Rams running backs had negative EPA on the ground. The Jets came into the game ranked eighth in run defense DVOA, the lone consistently bright spot on the team.

Between no running game and the short passes thrown by Goff, the Rams were in longer third downs than usual and they converted just 2-of-11. Even with all that, the Rams outgained the Jets 5.4 yards per play to 4.5 in the game.

Sam Darnold only threw the ball 4.7 yards past the line of scrimmage on average, but he completed 71% of those passes and didn’t throw an interception. Darnold only had a 47% success rate passing and didn’t have a deep attempt over 20 yards. But the mistake-free football was enough for an 88.5 QBR, which was a career-high.

There have been flashes in Jets games during the season and that’s what made them interesting for 2021 and beyond with the potential of Lawrence as the quarterback with a new coaching staff. Mekhi Becton continued his dominance on the left side of the offensive line. Quinnen Williams has become a consistent threat against both the run and pass on the defensive interior. Denzel Mims has made plays when he’s been healthy. Marcus Maye, who has seen a bigger role on the backend this season after the trade of Jamal Adams, has been excellent and iced the game with a deep pass breakup of a fourth-and-4 pass with four minutes left in the game. Of course, he'll be a free agent at the end of the season.

This game was probably bad for the overall long-term outlook of the Jets but also showed there’s potential to be uncovered. 

3. The Buccaneers Got Their Season’s Worth Of Variance In One Game

It’s nearly impossible to know what to expect from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked 32nd in week-to-week variance, meaning they’ve been the least consistent team in the league. As they proved in a 31-27 win over the Atlanta Falcons, that can show up within the same game.

Early in the game, the Buccaneers looked like they were going to get blown out by the Falcons. Matt Ryan was on a roll and Calvin Ridley looked uncoverable. Ridley finished the game with 10 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown. His 12-yard touchdown working against Sean Murphy-Bunting highlighted how lost Tampa Bay looked in coverage for most of the first half.

 

 

Per Football Outsiders, the Buccaneers were fourth in DVOA against the pass through Week 9 but have dropped to 16th since Week 10. It’s been an up-and-down unit over the past few weeks, especially without Jamel Dean in the lineup.

Atlanta took a 17-0 lead into halftime and the longest Tampa Bay drive had gained 26 yards. Then things changed at halftime.

Tampa Bay’s first play of the second half was a 20-yard gain on a crossing route to Antonio Brown from the slot. Two plays later, a 14-yard post to Cameron Brate. Three plays later there was a 32-yard gain to Mike Evans on a deep post with a switch release off the line that set the Buccaneers up at the 1-yard line

 

 

Leonard Fournette punched the ball in on the next play and the Buccaneers went 80 yards in seven plays and three-and-half minutes.

It’s clear the Buccaneers came out of the half with a plan to push the ball down the field more and it worked. Tampa Bay’s receivers should be able to win down the field often, but that hasn’t consistently been the case. Brady’s also been iffy on his deep ball placement, but he was 3-of-4 for 102 yards and a touchdown on passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air on Sunday. The biggest of which was a 46-yard touchdown to Brown, which gave the Bucs the lead with just over six minutes remaining in the game.

 

 

The most impressive touchdown might have been the 4-yard pass to Chris Godwin near the end of the third quarter. Godwin and Evans lined up on the left of the formation and ran stacked slant routes. Evans ran a deeper route that worked as a pick for Godwin and with the corner across from Godwin so deep, the Falcons had no chance of covering the pass.

 

 

While Brady got better throughout the game, that wasn’t the case for Ryan and the Falcons. Ryan took three sacks in the game and all three came in the fourth quarter, two on third down. 

The win probability chart looks like what you would expect from a Falcons game:

4. Kyler Murray vs Jalen Hurts

Kyler Murray threw for 406 yards for 11.3 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and it might have been one of his worst games of the season. The volume was certainly there for Murray but the down-to-down consistency was missing throughout a 33-26 Arizona Cardinals win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Murray had an interception and two fumbles with one lost. With all the raw production, he still finished with just 0.02 EPA per dropback and a QBR of 45.3. But Murray still did complete 75% of his passes for a week-high +14% completion percentage over expectation, per Next Gen Stats.

Arizona’s game was a mixture of all the Cardinals games we’ve seen this season. There was a heavy-reliance on DeAndre Hopkins but the receiver was able to move around with some snaps in the slot, even though all but one of his 10 targets came on the left side of the field. Hopkins finished with 169 yards and a touchdown, The touchdown was a 20-yard strike from empty on a third-and-2 late in a tie game.

 

 

The Cardinals jumped out to a 16-0 lead but the defense had trouble keeping up with Jalen Hurts, who did his best Murray impression and maybe had a better one on Sunday. Hurts only averaged 7.7 yards per attempt but threw for three touchdowns and rushed another 11 times for 67 yards and a touchdown. He also took six sacks with three fumbles (none lost) by working to extend some plays, a week after he was not sacked in his starting debut. The positives far outweighed the negatives for the rookie, who averaged 0.25 EPA per dropback and finished with a QBR of 60.9.

Both quarterbacks needed to carry their teams with shaky defensive units and running games that couldn’t get going without the quarterback’s involvement. The quarterback play in this game showed the benefit of having a passer who can also add value on the ground and take over when needed, even when there are some flaws in the quarterback’s game. The biggest difference here was that Murray had a receiving trump card in Hopkins and Hurts didn’t really have that go-to option.

Now at 8-6, the Cardinals sit as the No. 7 seed in the NFC with a 65% chance of making the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders. 

5. Dolphins Dominanted The Ground

DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki were ruled out for the Miami Dolphins before the game, so the Miami offense had to find a way to move the ball without their top-three options. Instead of forcing Tua Tagovailoa to drop back against a Bill Belichick defense without much help, the Dolphins kept it on the ground and that propelled them to a 22-12 win.

For as much as New England’s defense has improved against the pass throughout the season, that hasn’t been the case against the run, where they came into the week ranked 28th in DVOA. The Dolphins hadn’t been much better running the ball on offense, 25th in rushing DVOA, but backs Salvon Ahmed and Matt Brieda were able to get more than what was presented to them on the ground in the game.

Ahmed rushed for 122 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots and per Next Gen Stats had 2.2 rushing yards over expectation per carry, the fourth-highest mark of the week. 63.6% of his rushing attempts in the game (15-of-23) had more rushing yards than expected, the second-highest among Week 15 running backs. His long run of 31 yards was shut down up the middle and he was able to bounce outside for the big gain.

Brieda finished the game with 86 yards on 12 carries and 2.74 rushing yards over expectation per carry, the third-highest among running backs in Week 15. 58.3% of his rushing attempts had positive rushing yards over expectation.

The Dolphins kept things easy for Tagovailoa in the air. His average pass only traveled 3.7 yards past the line of scrimmage and he did not have a pass that traveled more than 15 yards in the air.

There is some concern about the passing offense and whether there is enough explosive play potential for the Dolphins to sustain success but that was likely never a possibility with most of the receiving corps out on Sunday. The positive is that the Miami coaching staff is able to adjust gameplans for personnel and opponent. While it wasn’t always pretty, it led to a win.

Miami’s win officially knocked New England out of the playoffs, though the 9-5 Dolphins only have a 41.9% chance at the playoffs themselves, according to Football Outsiders, even as they sit as the current No. 7 seed. They finish against the Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills.

6. The Titans Do Their Thing

Few teams do what they intend to do as well as the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee’s offense is based around play-action and a running game that can sustain just enough to matter in the fourth quarter. This strategy is built to pick on bad defenses and that’s what the Detroit Lions have. Despite Matthew Stafford’s best effort, a 46-25 Tennessee win was inevitable.

Ryan Tannehill threw for 10.1 yards per attempt with three touchdowns with a 70% success rate and 60% first down rate. He even added two touchdowns on the ground. Throws off play-action were open all afternoon for Tannehill, including this 75-yard bomb to Corey Davis.

 

 

Much of the damage against Detroit was done in the short game, which allowed for run after catch opportunities to running backs, tight end Jonnu Smith, and A.J. Brown.

Tennessee’s offense is designed around this one very specific thing, but it’s worked a majority of the time. Both the passing and ground game has worked off an offensive line that has been one of the better units in the league and one that has worked through injuries throughout the season. Henry consistently adds more rushing yards than expected on the ground, but the yards he would be expected to get given the spacing and blocking is among the highest in the league.

It’s also an offense that is built for the lead, though the Titans have stuck to their plan while trailing this season. Surprisingly, before Week 15, Tennessee’s average offensive drive had started while trailing. But the score was always close enough that the Titans didn’t have to completely abandon what they do. It’s such an interesting dynamic as they head into the playoffs and potentially face better teams and offenses. It will also be fascinating to watch next week as they face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

7. Quarterback Play Or Defensive Quality

The Seattle Seahawks have a great quarterback without much of a defense. The Washington Football team has a great defense without much of a quarterback. The quarterback won out on Sunday in a 20-15 Seattle win between two teams still likely to make the playoffs.

Seattle used a ton of quick and short passes to eliminate the Washington pass rush, which has been one of the most dangerous units in the league this season. Russell Wilson had just a 5.0-yard average depth of target and his average completion was only 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage. He only averaged 4.5 yards per attempt on the day. But he wasn’t sacked and was only hit three times. It was still enough for a 92.8 QBR.

Wilson did get back to using his legs with 52 yards on six carries, though really it was 55 yards on three runs when excluding kneel downs to end the game. Wilson had a big 38-yard scramble at the end of the second quarter that helped set up a touchdown before halftime.

Meanwhile, the Washington offense made the Seattle defense look good again. Eight quarterback hits, four sacks, and seven passes defensed. Dwayne Haskins was overwhelmed for much of the game before he slightly settled down and played better toward the end. But the inability to keep the offense moving has been an issue for Washington regardless of the quarterback this season. Should they make the playoffs — they’re still the favorite in the NFC East with a 70.9% chance to win the division — it’s going to be what holds them back, despite the difference-making defense.

8. Chart of the day

Remember back when Philip Rivers was holding the Indianapolis Colts back? That was a fun few weeks early in the season. Of course, Rivers’s play was never as bad as those calls to have him replaced made it seem and the Colts have continued to click on offense as the season has progressed. Rivers is now fifth in EPA per play among quarterbacks and Indianapolis is getting the likes of T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal involved regularly. Rivers will be floating perfectly placed corner routes until he’s 50.

9. Play of the day

Part of Miami’s adjustment to their limited passing game on offense was this modified hook and ladder play for a 2-point conversion. It probably wasn’t completely necessary but it was great.

10. A new quarterback outlook

With the Jets loss and the Jaguars taking over the first overall pick, the quarterback outlook has completely changed in the NFL. Jacksonville is now in position for Trevor Lawrence and the Jets find themselves with a new decision to make. It could be as easy as Justin Fields at No. 2 overall but there’s now a trade back scenario that might make more sense now than it did with the No.1 overall pick. Either way, the Jets should move on from Sam Darnold, but they could explore more options now.

What becomes fascinating is what this switch means for other potential quarterback-needy teams. All of a sudden the Carolina Panthers have the fourth overall pick and even though Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been the biggest problem and has helped helm a top-10 offense, the Panthers will find themselves in striking position for a quarterback.

Atlanta, currency fifth overall, could look for Matt Ryan’s replacement. Who knows what the Dallas Cowboys will do with Dak Prescott, they’re currently eighth overall.

Then there are the teams currently just outside of the top-10. San Francisco now 12th overall could be aggressive in getting a new quarterback and one Kyle Shanahan can hand-pick to run his offense. The Lions at 11th overall could move on from Matt Stafford if a new coach and general manager want a fresh start. The Denver Broncos at 12 overall should be looking for a new quarterback.

Gardner Minshew will also likely be available and despite the 40-14 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15, he averaged 7.4 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and had the week’s highest CPOE. 

One strange win turned a lot of things around and the quarterback market could be fascinating for the second offseason in a row.