A number of teams clinched playoff berths in Week 15, but there's still plenty to figure out with seeding as we head into the postseason. The next two weeks will feature head-to-head matchups between some of these teams and some of those became infinitely more interesting after a few wild results from Sunday.
1. San Francisco can’t play a normal game
The San Francisco 49ers have played some of the wildest games of the 2019 NFL season. There were the shootouts against the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints and then Sunday, it was the defensive battle against the… checks notes… Atlanta Falcons?
An eventual 29-22… checks notes, again… Atlanta win was just a 13-10 San Francisco lead at the start of the fourth quarter before four straight drives and a kickoff turned into points. The 49ers were down a number of regular contributors on defense, including Richard Sherman, K’Wuan Williams, Jaquiski Tartt, and Dee Ford, but the unit was able to hold for most of the game. Atlanta had one weapon going for it and went to that well often — throwing to Julio Jones.
Jones had 20 targets on the day and accounted for 74.3% of Atlanta’s intended air yards during the game, per Next Gen Stats, which easily led all receivers. That mark is the second-highest for a receiver this season, behind only a 77.1% share from Stefon Diggs in Week 8. However, he was only targeted seven times in a game Kirk Cousins threw 26 times and averaged just 6.5 air yards per throw. Again, Jones had 20 targets on the day, which made up for more than half (51.3%) of Matt Ryan’s passes.
In addition to being the most targeted receiver, Jones was easily the most valuable for the Falcons. He had 0.77 Expected Points Added per play, per nflscrapR data via the Baldwin Boxscore, with a success rate of 64%. He was only one of two Falcons receivers with positive EPA on the day, with the other being tight end Luke Stocker, who had 0.87 EPA on one target.
Of course, Jones’s biggest contributions came on Atlanta’s final offensive drive of the game. After a field goal that put San Francisco up 22-17, the Falcons started a drive at their own 30-yard line. Jones had a 25-yard catch and run on a 2nd and 2 from the San Francisco 49-yard line and a 10-yard gain on a 3rd and 1 from the San Francisco 15. Then Jones scored the go-ahead touchdown on a slant that just crossed the goal line a play after it appeared Austin Hooper had already scored, but the ruling was reversed in the booth.
Credit deserves to be given to Atlanta, but the Falcons shouldn’t have been in the position to score. On the previous drive, the 49ers faced a 4th and 1 from the Atlanta 25-yard line and 1:43 remaining in the game. Kyle Shanahan decided to kick instead of going for the short fourth down, a decision that cost the 49ers 10% win probability before the snap, per EdjSports. A successful conversion could have iced the game with just two timeouts remaining for the Falcons. However, the field goal put the 49ers up by five and made the Falcons more aggressive needing a touchdown to win instead of a field goal.
For most of the game, the San Francisco defense was able to hide a mostly ineffective offense that couldn’t run and was incredibly conservative through the air. Jimmy Garoppolo’s EPA looks fine — 0.18 EPA per play with a 50% success rate — but his average pass traveled just 3.7 yards in the air and his average completion came just 1.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, both lows for the week among quarterbacks. But the successful passes were strung together at the right times, which kept the offense moving enough to take the lead late.
The 49ers, though, were similarly one-dimensional when throwing the ball. George Kittle had 17 targets in the game and only Emmanuel Sanders also had more than three.
Luckily, the loss for the 49ers doesn’t completely derail their playoff seeding. They’ll win the NFC West if they win out including a Week 17 game in Seattle. Because that game will be in Seattle, the Seahawks currently have better divisional odds (54.8% to 45.2%), per Football Outsiders, but since the 49ers have the tiebreaker against the New Orleans Saints, San Francisco has better odds at the No. 1 seed.
2. The Cowboys make no sense
San Francisco’s Week 16 opponent will be the Los Angeles Rams, who had looked like a surging playoff contender over the past few weeks but took a beating from the Dallas Cowboys. In the 44-21 Dallas win, these two teams looked more like what they did at the start of the season than how they’ve performed over in their most recent stretches of games.
The Rams got bad Jared Goff — 33/51, 5.6 YPA, 45.5 QBR, and minus-0.07 EPA per play — while the Cowboys got an impressive version of Dak Prescott — 15/23, 9.2 YPA, 84.1 QBR, and 0.33 EPA per play. There were still some missed throws from Prescott, who completed 5.3% passes below expected per Next Gen Stats, but he was able to hit enough big plays to make up for some of the other mistakes that had grown over the past few weeks.
Early in the season, Dallas found its passing success going to its wide receivers, especially Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup but against the Rams, those two were held to just two combined receptions for 25 yards on five targets. Instead, the Cowboys worked the tight ends and running backs. Jason Witten, Blake Jarwin, and Ezekiel Elliott had a combined seven catches for 119 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets.
Dallas’s biggest play of the day was a 59-yard touchdown pass to Tavon Austin. The play saw Prescott avoid pressure from Dante Fowler and find Austin wide open after two Rams defenders ran into each other.
It was a mostly dominant day for the Dallas offensive line, which allowed just one hit on Prescott and blocked for 248 rushing yards between Elliott and Tony Pollard against a defense that ranked third in DVOA against the run coming into the week.
This version of the Cowboys could potentially hang with the other playoff contenders in the NFC. It’s why advanced numbers took in many Dallas games and still came out favorable through rough stretches in results. This version, though, only showed itself early in the season against weak opponents and then went away.
With the win, Dallas kept the driver’s seat in the NFC, but like the 49ers, so much comes down to a late-season game against the No. 2 team in the division. That will come next week with a game against the Eagles in Philadelphia, a game that should essentially decide the division. The loser would need a win and a massive upset from an additional NFC East team in Week 17 (Dallas plays Washington and the Eagles play the Giants) for the Week 16 winner to not take the division.
Sunday’s Cowboys team is much better than the current version of the Eagles but Sunday’s Cowboys team hasn’t been around very often this season.
3. DeAndre Hopkins, Game Icer
While the NFC East will likely be decided next week, the AFC South was more or less decided on Sunday. The Houston Texans defeated the Tennessee Titans 24-21, which gave Houston a massive edge in the division. The Titans, under some unsustainable play from Ryan Tannehill, had suddenly become some offensive juggernaut that was rolling through teams, but much of that luck stopped just enough on Sunday for the Texans to take and stick to an early lead.
Much of this came from a poor first half from Tannehill and the Titans when Tannehill completed 13.6% of his passes below expectation thanks terrible production in the short area of the field. He rebounded well enough to be just above average for the game (plus-0.6%) but that allowed Houston to take a 14-0 lead into the half. Even though the Titans came back to tie the game at 14 after the half, the Texans were able to pull away.
One thing that stood out for Houston was a bit of aggressiveness with the lead in the fourth quarter with an insistence on finding DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans had been able to hold Hopkins in check throughout the game by shifting coverage to the receiver wherever he lined up. On Watson’s lone sack, the Titans had Hopkins doubled covered from the slot.
That kept the ball from going to Hopkins, but opened up plays for Kenny Stills and Will Fuller down the field. But then in the fourth quarter, the Titans eased up on the coverage and the Texans were able to find Hopkins for a few big plays, including two 35-yard receptions. The first helped set up the go-ahead touchdown and the second, off play-action helped spring a two-score lead.
Two plays later, Hopkins went for 25 on a post into the hole in zone coverage while the Titans rushed just three.
In the fourth quarter alone, Hopkins was worth 5.31 EPA with 98 yards on four catches and five targets.
At 9-5 with a game over the Titans, the Texans have a 78.5% chance to win the AFC South and a 98.4% chance to making the playoffs overall.
4. Green Bay and Seattle get close
The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks only play close games. That’s fine right now because they’re winning them, but neither team has been producing a sustainable way of winning. Green Bay just played its eighth one-score game of the season and the Packers are now 7-1 in those games after a 21-13 win over the Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 10-1 in one-score games this season following a 30-24 win over the Carolina Panthers. While the results are similar, the paths to get there have been slightly different.
Green Bay, especially in this game, had a few valuable strikes but the overall efficiency wasn’t there. A wide-open pass down the seam to Davante Adams gave the Packers a 7-0 lead in the middle of a poorly played first half that between the Bears and Packers featured five punts and three turnovers on downs.
This was another disappointing game from Aaron Rodgers, who went just 16-of-33 for 203 yards and a touchdown, good enough for a QBR of 41.9. Rodgers is now 17th in QBR on the season between Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield.
Seattle, on the other hand, can put together good offensive performances but never show the ability to pull away from the opponent. Russell Wilson averaged 11 yards per attempt and 0.54 EPA per play with a QBR of 91.8 and still, the Seahawks could only muster a six-point win over the Kyle Allen-led Panthers.
The Seahawks were missing Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, and Shaquill Griffin, but Seattle has played frustratingly close games with those players in the lineup. It’s how a clearly better Seahawks team can lose in the Wild Card round against the Cowboys last season. The volume of winning close is a 2019 thing, but letting inferior opponents hang around is not.
5. Don’t throw at Stephon Gilmore
Since joining the New England Patriots, Stephon Gilmore has been one of the league’s best cornerbacks. Entering this week, he ranked 14th among 136 cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage snap. That number is only going to look better after a two-interception day off Andy Dalton.
The first came early in the third quarter when Gilmore had Tyler Boyd completely covered on a curl and Dalton tried to force a pass into a window that didn’t exist.
The second came on Cincinnati’s next drive. Dalton floated an out to Boyd and Gilmore easily jumped the route before the ball got to the receiver and returned it 64 yards for a touchdown. Gilmore now has two touchdowns on the season, which is two more touchdowns than he’s been responsible for in coverage, per Sports Info Solutions charting.
Cornerback stats can be tricky and noisy, but for the most part, good cornerbacks get avoid while bad cornerbacks get thrown at more often. This season, mostly because of how good the other New England cornerbacks have been and the face Gilmore often travels with a No. 1 receiver, he’s been targeted more often than would be expected given his performance. That has been a bad thing for opposing offenses.
6. Sean McDermott can coach
Over the past three seasons, Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane have put together an impressive team that has built on the strengths of its coach. And now for the second time in their tenure, the Buffalo Bills are going to the playoffs.
The defense has been one of the league’s best units (fifth in defensive DVOA entering Week 15) and has a stud on each level. Tre’Davious White has been comparable to Stephon Gilmore this season and had two interceptions of his own (and one returned for a touchdown) in the 17-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. White has also covered opposing No. 1 receivers for the Bills and his coverage metrics are nearly identical to Gilmore. (AYa is Adjusted Yards allowed — which includes touchdowns and interceptions).
White and the defense have been able to overcome some of the flaws of the offense to this point in the season — namely the inconsistency of quarterback Josh Allen. On really good days, like on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys, the Bills can cruise to victory, but that hasn’t often been the case this season. On fine days, like Sunday night against the Steelers, the Bills can win a low-scoring game. But there are still bad days where then’s little any other unit can do to overcome some of the mistakes.
To Allen’s credit, his mistakes this season have been mostly inaccuracy and not back-breaking turnovers of the past. Limiting those mistakes can help the Bills maybe win a playoff game, though there’s still a long way to go before Buffalo can hang with the elite in the AFC, though next week’s matchup with the Patriots could be a good test.
7. A healthy Patrick Mahomes is scary
The midseason knee injury for Patrick Mahomes paused some of the excitement he and the Kansas City Chiefs carried over from his MVP season last year. He is also dealing with a hand injury that reportedly concerned some in the Chiefs organization. But on Sunday, Mahomes looked healthy and the most Mahomes-ish since before his knee injury.
Mahomes finished 23-3 win over the Denver Broncos in the snow with 340 yards passing on 34 attempts with 0.42 EPA per play, a 64% success rate, and a 90.5 QBR. Mahomes is second in QBR for the season behind only Lamar Jackson.
Kansas City found success through the air targeting Travis Kelce — 11 receptions for 142 yards — but also had three other players with at least 40 receiving yards.
This is a team that is likely to have to play on Wild Card Weekend — the Chiefs have just a 19.3% chance at a bye per Football Outsiders — but this could be the most dangerous team in the playoffs if healthy with a quarterback who can score from anywhere and a defense that has been consistently improving, especially against the pass.
The Chiefs already handled the Patriots in Foxborough and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them do it again in the playoffs.
8. Play of the day
The Eagles offense has been disappointing this season and with the number of injuries, it’s been nearly impossible to turn it around. But Philadelphia has been able to just squeak by the bottom tier teams of the NFC East with plays by unheralded receivers. Zach Ertz got the game-winner against the Giants last week and this week against Washington it was receiver Greg Ward, a converted quarterback from Houston.
9. Chart of the day
Jameis Winston is unique. He’s not afraid to toss it up and sometimes it’s a terrible interception and sometimes it’s a beautiful deep touchdown pass. Winston threw for 458 yards against the Detroit Lions on Sunday and at points, it looked like it could have been on the way to 600. There’s been more good than bad with Winston this season, though the bad is typically quite memorable, and Winston’s highs have been just enough he’s likely to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback again in 2020.
10. TANK WATCH
The stage is set for one of the best weekends for draft and tank watchers. Next week there will be two games featuring all teams currently slated to pick in the top four of the 2020 NFL Draft. Three of those teams lost on Sunday, but even with Eli Manning getting to ride out his Giants career with a win, the Giants still hold the No. 2 overall pick. They’ll play Washington who also sits at 3-11. Then it’s the 1-13 Cincinnati Bengals against the 3-11 Miami Dolphins. If the Bengals lose, they lock up the first pick and quarterback Joe Burrow. It’s still a shame these games won’t be simultaneously broadcast in primetime.