With Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft in the books, Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, and Dan Pizzuta gave their thoughts on what happened on Thursday night, including the best moves, biggest surprise, and what they're looking forward to on Day 2.
What was the best move of Round 1?
Warren Sharp: There were several teams I felt played the board well and let value come to them. The best need matching that value was the Ravens taking LSU linebacker Patrick Queen. The Ravens have an excellent draft history with first-round linebackers, with Ray Lewis, Peter Boulware, Terrell Suggs, and C.J. Mosely. All started 5+ years, made 4+ Pro Bowls, and recorded 400+ tackles. Queen can get anywhere on the field, has a great mix of speed and explosiveness, and is an amazing fit in the Ravens scheme.
As a runner-up for best value, I'll add the Cowboys for their CeeDee Lamb pick. Getting Lamb at No. 17 was absolutely something not many saw coming. The Cowboys now have a cheap, stud wide receiver they can pair with expensive skill players of Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott.
Rich Hribar: All-encompassing, but I love the track the Dolphins are on. For one, they did not move up for an offensive tackle in the top-five as rumored late. Instead, they stayed put and got Tua Tagovailoa. With no injury concerns, Tua would be my top quarterback. Then, they selected that tackle (Austin Jackson) at No. 18. With their third first-round pick, they then traded down just four spots and got another top-150 pick (pick 136 from Green Bay). The player values may not be there, but those are wrong all the time to begin with. But they used three first picks at high-leverage positions to have a player on a rookie contract, which shows they at least are aware of shopping in the right aisles with their capital. Miami still has a way to go in their current rebuild and plenty of more holes, but their initial process in tearing things down is the right track.
Dan Pizzuta: It’s hard to not go with CeeDee Lamb to the Dallas Cowboys. Wide receiver wasn’t an obvious need, but the Cowboys let the board fall to them and they adapted as it did. Per ESPN’s Draft Predictor tool, there was just a 17% chance Lamb would still be on the board at No. 17. The ability to add Lamb to a receiving corps with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup was too good to pass up while being able to stay put and take potentially the draft’s top receiver. Dallas was already second in yards per drive and fourth in points per drive on offense last season per Football Outsiders. There may still be some holes on defense, but the Cowboys have the rest of the draft to fill those needs and now they’ll be able to hold up well in some shootouts.
What was the biggest surprise?
Sharp: Two surprises, with the first being the Raiders grabbing Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette at No. 19. Many draftniks who devote 365 days a year to college evals had Arnette as someone not even in consideration for the first round, let alone as the fourth cornerback off the board. As such, he likely could have been a prime trade-down candidate. Whether Arnette becomes better than pundits think, he could have been had later and that makes it a bad pick.
The second, and how could you not mention it, was the Packers trading up to No. 26 and drafting Jordan Love. This was a Packers team that made it to the NFC Championship game last year. Aaron Rodgers is in the final years of his window to win another title. Regardless of the value or future need, unless you move Rodgers, Love isn't helping you win in 2020. Love threw 20 TDs to 17 INTs in the Mountain West last year. You better be really confident in his future to trade up and draft him.
Hribar: Tied into that previous answer, but the Packers trading up to pick No. 26 to select Jordan Love. This is a team that went to the NFC Title Game a year ago. Granted, they overachieved as a team, but to not only take a developmental quarterback, but also trade up to do it was just bizarre. Aaron Rodgers is signed through the 2023 season and carries dead cap hits of $39.7M in 2020 and $31.6M in 2021. The first realistic year the Packers would consider moving on from Rodgers monetarily would be after 2021 and even then he would be $17.2M dead cap with just three years left to take advantage of Love's rookie contract.
Pizzuta: Not many people had Damon Arnette coming off the board in the first round, let alone the top-20, but he was picked 19th by the Las Vegas Raiders. Add to that Henry Ruggs with the No. 12 pick and the Raiders beat to their own drum in this draft.
As much of a shock as it is, Arnette has some good traits that project well to the NFL. He played 51% of his snaps in man coverage last season and had a man coverage positive play rate allowed of just 20%, per SIS, which was one of the best rates in the league. He also allowed a completion percentage of just 37.9%, which was also among the best of this class.
Arnette did have a better Adjusted Yards allowed per target than C.J. Henderson and A.J. Terrell who went ahead of him. But still, with the likes of Jaylon Johnson, Trevon Diggs, and Kristian Fulton still on the board entering Round 2, there was little reason to go so far away from consensus.
Who had the best/worst Round 1?
Sharp: This one was tough because I thought a variety of teams did really well. Assuming their confidence in his medical evaluation was accurate, you can't ask for a better result than the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa was likely their QB1 heading into the 2019 season. They won a few games, lost out on the No. 1 overall pick, and had to hear about it for months. But without wasting a single pick to trade up, they still landed Tua fifth overall.
I didn't love the OL pick but it was a position of need and Austin Jackson could be coached into a solid LT. They also grabbed a strong corner on a trade down with the Packers who can man the slot for Brian Flores. The fact they stayed disciplined and didn't trade up for Tua but got him at 5 has to make them thrilled.
On the other end of the spectrum, I'll add the Seahawks just because of how their pick occurred. In interviews after the pick, Pete Carroll admitted they were not planning on drafting linebackers entering the draft (indicating they may be going more need-based in future rounds). They also weren't planning on drafting a pick at No. 27. Instead, they had a trade in place to move back, which is a traditional John Schneider move in the first round. However, that trade fell through at the last minute. So essentially, they bricked.
They needed to make a pick they weren't planning on making at 27, and they simply drafted their “best player available” at a position they weren't planning to draft. That process is really rough.
Hribar: I kind of answered both already with Miami and Green Bay. I’m cheating here by completely not answering best or worst, but the 49ers were a mixed bag and interesting team altogether. On one hand, they flipped DeForest Buckner’s pending huge payday for a replacement on a rookie contract. That was a positive. But then they traded back up later on to select Brandon Aiyuk. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have made some solid trade downs while together, but they have not exactly highlighted the proper players to come up for. Trading up for Joe Williams, Dante Pettis, and Reuben Foster.
Aiyuk does not have a dissimilar profile entering the league than the one Pettis had, which is a better return game profile than one anchored by receiving output from a non-early declare player, which has been a red flag for wideouts. The 49ers now don’t have another draft pick in this draft until pick 156 and just three picks remaining altogether.
Pizzuta: I think the Cowboys are a clear winner because of the Lamb pick, but I’ll add the draft worked out quite well for the Minnesota Vikings. Everyone knew the Vikings were going to target wide receiver and cornerback with their two first-round picks. They got Justin Jefferson to fall to them at No. 22 and then they were able to trade back from pick No. 25, add picks 117 and 176 (a 136.2% premium by the AV trade value chart), and get a cornerback in Jeff Gladney at No. 31.
Every year, the Chargers suck in a section of Twitter into believing they’re finally going to be good. I fall into the hope every year, but I think this first round has me out. The best thing to say about the Justin Herbert pick is that they didn’t trade up for him. Then they traded back up into the first round to pick Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray. Murray is a super athletic linebacker with little natural football instincts.
Maybe that will be covered up with the amount of talent the Chargers have at defensive back in Dime-heavy personnel but with Patrick Queen still on the board and a number of Day 2 options who also have athleticism and coverage ability, the trade up was a poor move that now leaves the Chargers with no picks for Friday night.
What was your favorite team-player fit?
Sharp: Can I give three?
First up, Justin Jefferson to the Vikings at No. 22, because I think he excels at what the Vikings and Kirk Cousins will ask him to do. But it's also because he fell to them, so they didn't have to give up capital to acquire, and he's a massive need given they traded away Stefon Diggs (and they used the exact same pick they received from Buffalo for Diggs).
Second, I have to add the 49ers, when they added DT Javon Kinlaw after trading down. They took the same player they would have taken at 13, got an extra pick, and filled a huge need. Having traded away DeForest Buckner, they bring in a cheaper option who does many things that Buckner did well.
Finally, I'll go LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 32. This has nothing to do with value. But when asking team-player fit, there isn't much more Andy Reid would want than by far the best receiving back in the draft. General manager Brett Veach said he compared Clyde Edwards-Helaire to former Eagles running back Brian Westbrook. When he told Andy Reid his comp, Reid said Edwards-Helaire is even better than Westbrook. That's massive praise.
Hribar: I haven’t answered a question through a fantasy lens yet, so I’ll finally do so while ignoring it’s a team taking a first found running back. But Clyde Edwards-Helaire landed in a dream spot for his skill set. He could’ve gone to a spot that misused him, pigeonholed him into a committee or receiving only back, but now he hooks up with Andy Reid and his stellar track record of using receiving backs properly. The Fresh Prince of Helaire goes from the best offense in college to the best one in the NFL and the Chiefs only have Darwin Thompson signed beyond the 2020 season among their current backfield.
Pizzuta: To not make every answer “CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys,” let’s go with a fairly obvious early pick: Jeffrey Okudah with the Detroit Lions. Over the past few days, the Lions were rumored to have participated in trade discussions with half the league. There were also rumors the coaching staff was pushing for Derrick Brown.
With no teams interested in trading up to the top part of the draft, Detroit made the most obvious pick. Okudah was easily the top corner in this draft, no matter how many people tried to hype up C.J. Henderson. Okudah is a great, physical man corner who will be the No. 1 in a man-heavy scheme (the Lions played man on 54% of snaps last season, the highest rate in the league per SIS) that desperately needed corner help after trading away Darius Slay — the Lions were 29th in pass defense DVOA with Slay last season.
What are you most looking forward to during Day 2?
Sharp: Player-wise, I want to see where Jalen Hurts and Jake Fromm land. I'm also curious to see where the running backs get distributed, which is likely to occur on Friday night. We have D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and J.K. Dobbins for the taking and it will be interesting to see which teams bite.
Team-wise, I want to see what the Colts do at picks 34 and 44. You have to think without a first-round pick after trading for DeForest Bucker and signing Philip Rivers, this team is in big-time win-now mode. Where do they strike or do they trade back for more pieces?
Hribar: I am still most intrigued by when and where Jalen Hurts is selected. Hurts enters the NFL ranking in the 91st percentile in career Y/A (9.1), 90th in TD/INT rate (4.0:1), and 77th in completion rate (65.1%) for all passers since 2000. Those marks are all well above the passing resume Lamar Jackson entered the league with two seasons ago. Hurts is not quite on Jackson’s level running the ball, but Jackson may have just kicked the door down for some team wondering if they can work with what Hurts does well (3,274 yards and 43 career TDs rushing).
Pizzuta: How early does the safety run start and how quickly does it start rolling once it does? No safeties were taken in the first round but Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, and Antione Winfield Jr. all had the potential to go in the first. There’s also Ashtyn Davis, Kyle Duggar, and Terrell Burgess. These are all potential starters for teams on the backend of the secondary and there is going to be value available for teams who jump at the safeties left on the board and after writing up the defensive depth charts for all 32 teams over the past week, there are plenty of teams that could use the help.