With most of the NFL in Indianapolis this week, we're getting ready to kick off the 2022 offseason. While so much of the energy around the NFL Combine is focused on the incoming players (and rightfully so), there is still so much time before draft season really gets going — we're eight weeks away from the draft.
The happenings in Indianapolis really jumpstart the offseason as a whole and with most general managers and head coaches speaking with the media, we can have some takeaways about what this offseason could look like.
Top-tier quarterback movement probably isn’t coming
Last offseason had the potential to have some high-caliber quarterbacks move, but most never came to fruition. Matthew Stafford was the biggest name to move, and while that worked out quite well, rumored movement from Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson never materialized. Because of that, the Rodgers and Wilson intrigue has carried over to this offseason, but in both instances, the situations surrounding those quarterbacks and teams appear to have improved.
Rodgers returned to Green Bay and had an MVP season in 2021. And while the playoff loss might have ended on a sour note, the Packers have worked the early part of the offseason as if Rodgers will return for at least one more year. One big indication is the hiring of Tom Clements, a 68-year-old coach who served as the Packers’ quarterbacks coach (2006-2011), offensive coordinator (2012-2014), and assistant head coach (2015-2016) during Rodgers’s career. Clements was hired back as the quarterbacks coach for 2022, a move in which Matt LaFleur said Rodgers played a significant role.
We’ll still near to hear an official word from Rodgers, but the early signs appear more positive than what was hovering around the quarterback and organization last year.
The same can be said for Wilson and the Seahawks. Seattle has answered the phone when teams have called about Wilson, but the line has been they’re not actively shopping the quarterback. Wilson holds some leverage here with a no-trade clause, so for a deal to take place, it would have to make sense both from compensation for Seattle and be somewhere Wilson would be willing to go.
Jimmy Garoppolo is likely to be the most high-profile quarterback traded this offseason (non-Deshaun Watson division and a much different, grosser conversation) and we’ve seen some of the limitations that can bring to an offense. Yet because of what looks to be available in the draft (49ers general manager John Lynch said looking at the 2022 class was a factor in making the move for Trey Lance last year), Garoppolo could be in high demand.
For teams looking for that veteran boost, it’s a better alternative than what teams were saddled with as consolations last offseason like Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz.
Carson Wentz’s time in Indianapolis is probably up
Speaking of Wentz, there wasn’t a super positive vibe with how the Colts’ brass talked about last season’s trade acquisition. Frank Reich shared that he still had belief in Wentz, that he was a voice in favor of the trade, and mentioned multiple times that he “stuck his neck out” for the quarterback — though he did mention the possibility of Wentz’s success coming somewhere else.
Chris Ballard’s feelings were a little colder. Ballard was asked about the criticisms Wentz faced after the season and his response did not show a ton of confidence: “I’m not saying all of it is, but most of it’s pretty fair. It’ll be interesting to see how he grows from this. I think he will.”
Wentz had some flashes during the season when the surroundings were perfect, but he finished the season with negative EPA per dropback and per TruMedia, tied for the third-most games among quarterbacks with at least 10 dropbacks and -0.10 EPA per dropback or worse (eight).
If the Colts can trade Wentz, they would free themselves from his entire $28.3 million cap hit for 2022, but that could be difficult, especially since the Colts won’t get nearly what they gave up for him just a year ago. But some compensation might be better than nothing. Releasing Wentz is also an option that would clear $13.3 million in cap space but would come with a $15 million dead money charge, according to Over The Cap.
The Giants are open for business
It’s possible the highest volume of roster movement will come from the New York Giants. Per Over The Cap, the Giants currently have -$6.5 million in cap space and they’ve already started releasing some of the players acquired by Dave Gettleman, such as Devontae Booker and Kyle Rudolph.
Like most teams, the Giants could easily get under the cap with simple restructures — a move they made to the extreme last offseason and throughout the year. New general manager Joe Schoen doesn’t sound interested in pushing even more money into the future for players who aren’t going to be in the long-term plans for the organization. Schoen comes from Buffalo, an organization that more or less took a torch to the bad contracts when the Brandon Beane era began in an attempt to rebuild the foundation of the roster.
Schoen said he was “open to everything” when asked about potential trades to clear contracts (and move from one of the two first-round picks). He even floated the prospect of player-for-player swaps, which was an interesting and potentially fun unprompted thought from a GM.
The Giants are a fascinating player this offseason because while the collection of players and talent don’t combine for a good roster collectively, individually some of those players could receive interest across the league.
Saquon Barkley is the biggest name, though a trade market for a highly-drafted running back on the final year of his rookie contract is tough to figure out. Parting ways with Barkley makes sense for the Giants because he’s unlikely to see a second contract with the team, but finding a trade partner willing to part with any draft capital to take on Barkley’s $7.2 million salary for 2022. Most teams around the league fall into one of two categories — those willing to spend on running backs and have already done so or those not interested in spending significant resources at the position.
The most interesting name is cornerback James Bradberry, who was stellar in his first season with the Giants and had some ups and downs in Year 2. Bradberry has just one year remaining on his contract with a 2023 void. The Giants would save $12.1 million with a trade and the acquiring team would be on the hook for a $13.4 million salary in 2022.
Trades would be the quickest way to clear cap space, but some Giants also come with bloated salaries. Trading Leonard Williams would free up $10.7 million in cap space, but his new team would take on a $19 million 2022 salary and that’s hard to justify, even for a conditional seventh-round pick.
However it’s done, it won’t be surprising to see a number of players from the Giants land elsewhere this offseason.
Things are getting interesting in Arizona
The Kyler Murray situation hovered over press conferences for both Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury, but neither had definitive answers and it doesn’t appear that there’s a possibility that the team will part ways with the quarterback — an extension feels like the most likely outcome whether it happens this offseason or next.
Most of Kingsbury’s podium time sounded like a coach who knew his performance, especially in the second half of the season, wasn’t good enough for where the Cardinals should be. Specifically, he called out his failure to adjust the offense after the loss of DeAndre Hopkins.
“When we lost Hop, I didn’t do enough schematically to adjust to help us win games.”
That was fairly clear watching the offense. Antonie Wesley played the DeAndre Hopkins role without, you know, being DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals averaged 0.19 EPA per dropback with Hopkins on the field and -0.08 without him in 2021, per TruMedia.
Arizona’s offense is already likely to see an overhaul. Receivers A.J. Green and Christian Kirk are both free agents as are running backs Chase Edmonds and James Conner.
Kingsbury sounded like a coach who knew he needed to adjust and do better in order to keep his job — and then a day later it was announced that both Keim and Kingsbury had signed contract extensions through 2027.
Rewarding the current Arizona regime before the changes necessary to stay on top of the league are made is certainly one way to go. This staff is the equivalent of a quarterback who shows high-end flashes but the consistency isn’t there on a play-to-play basis. At the moment, the NFC West isn’t getting any easier and those adjustments are going to have to be made in order for those extensions to look remotely like a good idea.
It’s hard to fit prospects to teams this early in the offseason
With teams and draft prospects in the same spot this week, it’s easy to start connecting some dots. When it comes to specific players and team fits, it’s even easier to do before the combine. But it’s not a straight line for those dots to connect — especially with free agency still coming up.
Take the Los Angeles Chargers and the connection to Georgia interior defender Jordan Davis. According to Grinding The Mocks, Davis is easily the most popular Chargers pick in mock drafts, taken as the selection 32.6% of the time with no other player at 10%.
General manager Tom Telesco was asked specifically about Davis, but he declined to go into details of scouting reports and just called the Georgia defense “an impressive front.” When asked about the value of the interior defensive line, especially in regards to the Brandon Staley defense, Telesco said everything starts up front.
It’s clear the Chargers need to upgrade the defensive interior to stop the run. Those bigger bodies are necessary to play with lighter boxes behind them. Last season, the Chargers ranked 31st in EPA per play against the run. But with such a glaring hole, it’s easy (and maybe necessary) for the Chargers to make those upgrades before the draft.
Four of the top-10 interior defenders in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate are slated to be free agents — D.J. Jones (first), Foley Fatukasi (t-third), Al Woods (fifth), and Harrison Phillips (eighth). That list doesn’t even include Sebastian Joseph-Day, who thrived under Staley with the Rams, finished fifth in 2020, and was in the top-10 before he was injured midseason in 2021.
There are positions that are hard to fill in free agency, but a run-stopping interior defensive lineman isn’t one of them. These players aren’t expected to be particularly expensive, either. The Chargers also currently have the third-most cap space in the league.
The Chargers will have a number of opportunities to fill that position. Davis might still be the best player available when the team is on the clock at the end of April, but it’s unlikely the need is going to be the same by the time that comes around.