The Washington Commanders have gone on a historic run to the NFC Conference Championship and now face their toughest challenge yet.
Washington will face their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, for a chance to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988.
The teams each won a game in their regular season series, but the Eagles are a heavy favorite to win this matchup.
Here are 3 keys to an upset for the Washington Commanders.
Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive FREE BETS from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:
Commanders Key #1: Slow Down Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley has produced one of the greatest rushing seasons in NFL history, and he rushed for an astonishing 205 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week's victory over the Rams.
The Commanders have shown no ability to stop Barkley in their previous outings.
He amassed over 300 total yards and 4 touchdowns against Washington in just two games.
The key to slowing him down will be to limit explosive plays.
Barkley has had touchdown runs of 29, 33, and 68 yards against Washington this season. These are the plays that shift momentum, especially in a playoff game.
Washington ranks near the bottom of the league in most major run defense statistics.
They allowed a run of 10 or more yards on 13.8% of runs, which ranks 31st in the league. They have also allowed a league-high 2.08 yards before contact per running back run.
The only way that Washington has been able to stop the run is by constantly stacking the box.
They were able to do this when Jalen Hurts went down with an injury in Week 16. Barkley only managed 18 yards on 13 carries on plays with eight or more defenders in the box in that game.
Stacking the box comes with a fair amount of risk.
Overusing this style could open up the Eagles' passing game or result in explosive run plays if not executed properly.
Dan Quinn will need to map out a creative game plan to slow down Barkley.
Commanders Key #2: Win the Turnover Battle
Turnovers usually dictate who wins games at this point in the season.
A big reason that the Commanders have won two playoff games is because Jayden Daniels has yet to throw an interception and the team has no fumbles in the postseason.
Their defense, on the other hand, has forced 6 turnovers, giving the team a +6 turnover margin.
That is tied for the best margin in the playoffs…with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Washington had a +1 turnover margin during the regular season, which ranked 15th in the league.
The Eagles had a much better margin of +11, which ranked sixth.
Whoever wins the turnover battle is very likely to win this game.
Washington’s secondary played a much better game against the Lions last week, but they still have allowed the most yards per play in the playoffs.
They will need to force timely errors and capitalize on them to advance to the Super Bowl.
Commanders Key #3: Success in the Red Zone
The last key to victory for the Commanders is to convert red zone trips into touchdowns.
In the win against the Lions, the Commanders converted on three out of four fourth down attempts.
They led the league in fourth down conversions this season with an 86.96% conversion rate.
Washington will need to execute on a fearless approach to win on the road.
Kicking field goals simply will not cut it against a team with as much talent as the Eagles.
If Washington can control the time of possession and convert long drives into touchdowns, then they will have a great chance to win.
