Rather than grading draft classes, an exercise I enjoy doing and believe has some merit, I like evaluating draft classes based on a “wisdom of crowds” approach.
This approach looks at where a player was expected to be drafted and compares that to where they were drafted.
Using that, we can see which players were draft day steals and which players were drafted well ahead of consensus.
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Top 10 Worst Reaches, 2025 NFL Draft:
10. Jordan Watkins, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Expected to go Undrafted — Drafted with pick 138
He has quickness but lacks size, strength, and a reliable catch radius, giving him a narrow path to stick on a roster beyond special teams duties.
9. Ruben Hyppolite II, LB, Chicago Bears
Expected to go Undrafted — Drafted with pick 132
He flashes athletic traits but shows inconsistent tackling and poor instincts, feeling more like a special teams project than a dependable defensive contributor.
8. Pat Bryant, WR, Denver Broncos
Expected to go 163 — Drafted with pick 74
He wins contested catches but lacks explosiveness after the catch and doesn’t bring much vertical speed, making it questionable to spend this kind of capital on a limited role player.
7. Jaylin Smith, CB, Houston Texans
Expected to go 216 — Drafted with pick 97
He is physical in run support but struggles to mirror receivers in man coverage and rarely makes plays on the ball, casting doubt on his ability to develop into a true starter.
6. Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints
Expected to go 90 — Drafted with pick 40
He has the frame and arm strength teams covet, but an extensive injury history and shaky decision-making make this an extremely risky pick to bet on.
5. Justin Walley, CB, Indianapolis Colts
Expected to go 194 — Drafted with pick 80
He plays aggressively but lacks top-end agility and has been prone to surrendering big plays, making this a high-risk investment for a secondary that needed steadier production.
4. Isaac TeSlaa, WR, Detroit Lions
Expected to go 171 — Drafted with pick 70
He has size and toughness, but struggled to separate against lower-level competition, raising doubts about how he’ll consistently win against NFL defensive backs.
3. Arian Smith, WR, New York Jets
Expected to go 257 — Drafted with pick 110
He brings elite speed but produced very little in college, with limited polish as a route runner and serious questions about whether he can ever be a complete receiver.
2. Nick Martin, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Expected to go 192 — Drafted with pick 75
He shows good instincts but struggles to shed blocks, raising concerns about his ability to survive in the trenches and making this selection feel like a major reach on athletic traits.
1. Tyler Booker, OG, Dallas Cowboys
Expected to go 31 — Drafted with pick 12
He has strength and physicality, but his pass protection can break down against quicker interior rushers, and he lacks the high-end foot speed expected from a top-15 pick.