With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the San Francisco 49ers, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the San Francisco 49ers rookies?
- Ji'Ayir Brown, S, Penn State | Round 3, Pick 87
- Jake Moody, K, Michigan | Round 3, Pick 99
- Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama | Round 3, Pick 101
- Darrell Luter Jr, CB, South Alabama | Round 5, Pick 155
- Robert Beal Jr, EDGE, Georgia | Round 5, Pick 173
- Dee Winters, LB, TCU | Round 6, Pick 216
- Brayden Willis, TE, Oklahoma | Round 7, Pick 247
- Ronnie Bell, WR, Michigan | Round 7, Pick 253
- Jalen Graham, LB, Purdue | Round 7, Pick 255
San Francisco 49ers Draft Class Grade:
The 49ers received a C- rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B- from ESPN, and a C from NFL Network.
Which 49ers Rookies Will Make An Impact?
Landing a player like Ji’Ayir Brown (third round) despite not holding a pick until late on Day 2 is impressive.
Brown played multiple roles in the Penn State secondary but was at his best at free safety, where his on-ball production stood out.
Brown will likely provide depth behind Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga as a rookie. The 33-year-old Gipson is in the final year of his contract, so Brown could be expected to take that job in 2024.
It requires a good deal of arrogance to draft a kicker in the third round 一 arrogance to believe you don’t have other needs and that you’re capable of evaluating kickers. Jake Moody (third round) will, hopefully, win the starting kicker job, but that’s far from a guarantee.
Historically, NFL teams are terrible at identifying the best kicker from a given draft class.
Among the first kickers off the board from 2016 through 2021, only Evan McPherson (Bengals, 2021) spent more than one season with the team that drafted him. And the last time the first kicker off the board spent more than three seasons with the franchise that drafted him was Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots in 2006.
Cameron Latu (third round) adds some insurance behind George Kittle, who turns 30 in October and has dealt with a series of injuries in recent years.
Latu did not test well in pre-draft workouts, but his production after the catch indicates he has enough athleticism to contribute. Based on route-adjusted numbers, Latu generated 18% more yards after the catch than expected and 23% more yards after the catch on the NFL’s most common routes (curl, dig, drag, flat, out, slant, screen).
Latu will be joined by Brayden Willis (seventh round), though Willis primarily brings value as a blocker and likely will never compete for a starting job due to his deficiencies as a receiver.
Darrell Luter Jr. (fifth round) is a developmental prospect with ideal length (32-inch arms). The majority of the cornerback depth chart is under contract for at least two years, so he’ll have some time to develop.
At 6-foot-4 and 247 pounds, Robert Beal Jr. (fifth round) is undersized for the 49ers' four-man fronts, which they used on 98% of snaps last season.
New defensive coordinator Steve Wilks also used four-man fronts on 98% of snaps in his last season as an NFL coordinator (Browns, 2019). In addition to being an odd fit for this defense, Beal faces a crowded depth chart.
Dee Winters (sixth round) is an undersized but athletic linebacker. He’s a similar athlete to Oren Burks, who is in the final year of his contract.
Jalen Graham (seventh round) has some similar traits to Winter but lacks the elite speed. His special teams production enhances his ability to make the team.
The 49ers love receivers who are athletic after the catch, so Ronnie Bell (seventh round) was an ideal late-round target for them. Based on route-adjusted numbers over the last two seasons, he generated 19% more yards after the catch than expected.
Bell’s issue is an inability to come down with the ball, as his route-adjusted catch rate was 7.6% below expected. He likely won’t factor into the passing game this year but could be groomed for a future role if he’s able to make the roster.
Expectations were low for this draft class given the lack of capital, and the results are mixed. The 49ers should be excited about landing Brown, a likely future starter. The selection of Moody, however, is a dark cloud over this class. Even if he wins the job, it was a poor use of limited resources.
