Andrew Luck’s retirement was a shock to the NFL world. While it had multiple major implications, one of the biggest was on the playoff outlook for the AFC South. With Luck at quarterback, the Indianapolis Colts were the favorite to win the division, but that is no longer the case. Per the DrafKings Sportsbook, the Colts have fallen to fourth in divisional odds at plus-500. Now the Houston Texans are favored at plus-125 with the Jaguars close behind (plus-250) and Tennessee Titans in third (plus-375).
In an attempt to get some clarity on this division and where these teams stand, we can take a look at how the rosters currently stack up, which teams hold the advantage, and how that could impact the divisional race in 2019.
Quarterback
Advantage: Houston Texans
This probably doesn’t get much easier to figure out. There would no doubt be a selection of people who would say Deshaun Watson was the best quarterback in the division even with Luck still active. While Patrick Mahomes overshadowed the run Luck had at the end of the year, the 2018 NFL MVP has also overshadowed the start to Watson’s career.
Watson had an incredible rookie campaign and followed it up with a stellar sophomore season. It also played through injury — remember, there was a stretch when Watson took a bus to games because he couldn’t fly due to a rib injury. Watson finished the 2018 season eighth in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (1.1 yards above Luck) and 13th in QBR. He did this with the aforementioned injuries, an injury-riddled supporting cast, and a horrific offensive line.
The rest of the division faces significant question marks at the position. Nick Foles has never been healthy for a full 16 game season. Marcus Mariota brings his own injury concerns. Jacoby Brissett could be a massive step down from Luck in Indianapolis, but also doesn’t have a difficult path to finishing as the second-best quarterback in the division.
Skill Positions
Advantage: Indianapolis Colts
We’re combining all skill positions, so that makes this slightly different than if we had broken this down by wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs separately. The edge here goes to the Colts because of the all-around talent and depth. DeAndre Hopkins could have been enough to make the Texans No. 1 here on his own and at full health, the Houston receiving corps can be one of most dangerous in the league, but the health of Will Fuller and Keke Coutee can’t be counted on for an extended period of time. Houston doesn’t really need more than a healthy Hopkins to be an effective passing offense, but that still isn’t enough to award them the best skill position group.
In Indianapolis, the receiving duo of T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess is more than serviceable. Parris Campbell can add to that once he consistently gets on the field. Where the Colts really take this, though, is with the skill of the tight ends and running backs. Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron is a great 1-2 punch for a team that’s probably going to run a lot of 12 personnel this season. Then at running back, the duo of Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines gives the Colts a balanced attack for both the run and pass game.
None of the other teams in the division can match that across the board. Tennessee is probably a but underrated here with Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries, Delaine Walker, Derrick Henry, and Dion Lewis. However, that’s a group set up best to take advantage of the shallow parts of the field without a lot of downfield upside. The Jaguars might get a breakout from Dede Westbrook or Keelan Cole, but overall they have one of the weakest skill-position groups in the league.
Offensive Line
Advantage: Indianapolis Colts
If quarterback wasn’t easiest to figure out, it would be the offensive line. One of the biggest things general manager Chris Ballard did for Indianapolis was rework an offensive line that had consistently been one of the worst in the league. Now the Colts are solid or better at every position across the line, highlighted by Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly on the interior.
Last season the Colts were 10th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. The next best AFC South team was surprisingly the Texans at 16th, but they might have gotten worse over the offseason. Jacksonville ranked 23rd and Tennessee was 25th. Both expect to be better in 2019, but neither will come close to the improvement the Colts made in 2018.
Front-6
Advantage: Jacksonville Jaguars
This is going to be labeled “front-6” because teams are in nickel a majority of the time, so a “front-7” doesn’t really exist anymore, at least not nearly at the rate it used to.
Here’s where the Jaguars finally show up, of course given the state of the league, having a dynamic defensive front is less meaningful than being really good at any of the offensive positions (which we have seen the Jaguars are not).
Still, the Jacksonville pass rush is one to be envied by just about any team around the league. Yannick Ngakoue is in line for a monster season and he’s joined now by Josh Allen. This is also a defensive line that features Calais Campbell. Myles Jack hasn’t turned into the star linebacker some predicted, but he’s been at least above average on the second level for Jacksonville over the past three seasons.
Jacksonville has one of the best front-6’s in the league, but it doesn’t give them a huge advantage in the division. Houston can run out J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Jadeveon Clowney (for now). The defense gets a little weaker behind them, but offenses have to be able to reach the second level first.
Indianapolis can also be sneaky good here. The depth chart is made up of veterans, castoffs, and rookies, but has some solid talent in Justin Houston, Jabaal Sheard, Denico Autry, Kemoko Turay, and Ben Banogu. Behind that is 2018 rookie sensation Darius Leonard.
Secondary
Advantage: Jacksonville Jaguars
Again, the Jaguars almost have to be here to the resources they’ve put into the position. The cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye is still one of the best in the league, though they weren’t nearly as dominant as they were in 2017. Still, the Jaguars as a whole ranked sixth against the pass by DVOA, so it’s not as if they completely imploded — they just weren’t the best.
Tennesse is actually spending more on its cornerback duo of Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, but that tandem wasn’t nearly as successful last season. Tennessee was 21st in pass defense DVOA and Butler finished 77th in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage snap out of 85 cornerbacks with at least 300 snaps in coverage. Just above him was Adoree Jackson.
Houston had a few changes in the secondary. They lost Tyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson. The Texans brought in Bradley Roby as a free agent, but he ranked 81st among that group in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage snap. Individual coverage stats aren’t incredibly sticky from year to year, but it’s certainly better to look good in those stats than where Roby was last season.
Coaching
Advantage: Indianapolis Colts
It’s only been a season, but Frank Reich has already proven himself to be one of the NFL’s best head coaches. The way he was able to adjust his scheme to the personnel and performance of his players — the 2018 Colts offense looked different at the beginning of the year than the end when Luck was healthier — brings a sense of optimism for the future for whoever will be under center long-term in Indianapolis, whether it be Brissett or someone else. For 2019 it will be Brissett and that will provide the Colts with a better chance to succeed than in 2017, the last time Brissett was thrust into the starting role.
This also wasn’t a difficult battle to win for Reich and the Colts. Bill O’Brien has been a questionable head coach and his current turn as a worse general manager could increase the difficulty of that job. Mike Vrabel has some positives, but nothing that truly makes him stand out from the pack. Doug Marrone has been forced into being Tom Coughlin’s shadow coach, but he hadn’t done much on his own to warrant not being micromanaged.
Where things stand
How you view this division probably comes down to how you view the importance of the quarterback. As noted all the way up at the top, Houston runs away with that advantage. However, they aren’t nearly as well-positioned elsewhere on the roster. Meanwhile, the Colts might have the deepest overall roster in the division, but quarterback is the biggest question. But we also showed the possibility of Indianapolis having the second-best quarterback in the division isn’t a high bar to clear. Of course, the Colts could just as easily finish fourth in that ranking.
What’s clear is there is still no clarity. The AFC South had a big favorite but doesn’t anymore. In reality. The division is open for any of the four teams, including the former favorite.
