In the last five seasons, only two teams have exceeded 55 regular season wins: the Chiefs (66) and the Bills (61).
Regular season wins are fine…if they lead to better seeding and playoff success.
Despite the Chiefs and Bills both leading the NFL in total wins over the last five seasons and each making the playoffs all five seasons, the Bills lag behind in playoff success.
In the playoffs, the Chiefs have:
- 4 Conference Championships
- 2 Super Bowls
Meanwhile, the Bills have:
- 0 Conference Championships
- 0 Super Bowls
It is not so simple to suggest the Bills are great in the regular season and bad in the playoffs.
In fact, in the playoffs over the last five years, the Bills have 12 games played (second most in the NFL) and 7 wins (second most in the NFL).
Beyond that, they actually have a winning record in the NFL playoffs: 12 games, 7 wins, 5 losses.
There are only 6 other teams with a winning record in the playoffs the last five years, and ALL of them have at least one Conference Championship victory and Super Bowl appearance to show for it.
- Chiefs
- Rams
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
- Bengals
- 49ers
But not the Bills.
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Josh Allen's Playoff Performance
You cannot blame Josh Allen’s overall performance as the reason they cannot seem to accomplish their goals of making it to and then winning the Super Bowl.
If you look at the 24 quarterbacks with at least 50 playoff pass attempts since 2020, Josh Allen is the #1 most efficient quarterback in the playoffs.
- #1 in EPA per play (+0.15)
- #1 in success rate (50%)
We know how badly turnovers affect games, particularly in the postseason.
That hasn’t been an issue for Allen.
He has the #1 best TD:INT ratio in the postseason over the last five years.
He has thrown 25 playoff touchdowns to only 4 interceptions, a TD/INT rate of 6.3 that ranks #1.
In their five playoff losses, the Bills have averaged 24.6 points per game, which not only is above the scoring average in the playoffs for all teams (24.5) but is substantially above the scoring average for teams that lose playoff games (18.8).
In fact, the Bills average of 24.6 points per game scored in playoff losses over the last five years is #1 most of any NFL team with at least three playoff losses.
Opponents scored an average of 33.2 points in Buffalo’s five playoff losses over that span.
It’s hard to pin those defeats on Allen.
In his five losses, he’s averaged +0.14 EPA/play and a 51.2% success rate.
Where do those stats rank among quarterbacks in playoff losses over the last five years?
- #1 in EPA/play
- #1 in success rate
In those losses, he has thrown 9 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, and his 4.5 TD/INT ratio is #2 in the NFL among playoff losing QBs.
Allen has also added 3 rushing TDs (tied for most in the NFL) in his playoff losses.
His 2.4 total touchdowns per game rank #2 best among playoff losing quarterbacks, and his 0.4 interceptions per game rank #3 best.
Avoiding sacks is also critical, and Allen’s 4.3% sack rate ranks #5 best.
As noted earlier, the two teams with the most regular season wins and most playoff wins over the last five years are the Chiefs and Bills.
Let’s compare Josh Allen’s performance in his playoff losses (5) to Patrick Mahomes in his losses (3) over the last five years.
And keep in mind, there have been 18 quarterbacks with at least two playoff losses in our sample.
Josh Allen (of 18 QBs):
- #1 EPA/play (+0.17)
- #2 EPA/dropback (+0.13)
Patrick Mahomes (of 18 QBs):
- #15 EPA/play (-0.15)
- #18 EPA/dropback (-0.22)
Even in playoff losses, Allen has delivered more efficient performances than any other quarterback.
In playoff losses, Allen has been the best quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes has been the worst.
In his five playoff losses, Allen has a 9:2 TD:INT ratio.
In his three playoff losses, Mahomes has a 6:6 TD:INT ratio.
Josh Allen (of 18 QBs):
- #3 in TD/INT rate (4.5)
- #5 in sack rate (4.3%)
- #2 in Sack+INT rate (4.8%)
Patrick Mahomes (of 18 QBs):
- #10 in TD/INT rate (1.0)
- #14 in sack rate (9.8%)
- #15 in Sack+INT rate (13.2%)
Allen has also recorded 293 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs in those games.
His 59 rushing yards per game is over double Mahomes’ 26 rushing yards per game, and Mahomes does not have a rushing touchdown.
Allen has given the Buffalo Bills tremendous performances in the postseason, even in their losses.
The best statistical quarterback in the postseason over the last five years across all games, wins or losses.
And yet, the only statistic that matters for the Bills is 0.
That is the number of Super Bowl wins in the last five years.
Even worse, that is the number of AFC Championships in their five playoff trips.
Allen would be the first to point the finger at himself for things he could have done better in each playoff loss, and he hasn’t been perfect.
But at the end of the day, given these statistics and this analysis, it’s hard to look at the Bills and think they can “get over the hump” in the playoffs if only Allen would play better.
With this team, their playoff futility is not on the quarterback.
So, if it’s not on the quarterback, who then bears the blame for the Bills failing mightily when it matters most and not bringing home any AFC Championships or Super Bowls these last five seasons despite recording the #2 most regular season wins and #2 most playoff wins?
And the even bigger question: what are they changing to get over that hump in 2025?