With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Buffalo Bills, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Buffalo Bills rookies?
- Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah | Round 1, Pick 25
- O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida | Round 2, Pick 59
- Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane | Round 3, Pick 91
- Justin Shorter, WR, Florida | Round 5, Pick 150
- Nick Broeker, G, Ole Miss | Round 7, Pick 230
- Alex Austin, CB, Oregon State | Round 7, Pick 252
Buffalo Bills Draft Class Grade:
The Bills received an A rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN, and a B+ from NFL Network.
Which Bills Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The selection of Dalton Kincaid (first round) was surprising due to the presence of Dawson Knox, who is under contract through the 2026 season. Buffalo used two tight ends on just 9.7% of snaps last year, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Presumably that rate will increase, but since Sean McDermott arrived in Buffalo in 2017, that rate has not climbed above 25% and has not even reached 20% on pass plays.
Based on route-adjusted numbers, Kincaid’s catch rate was 5.9% above expected over the last two seasons, the highest rate among tight ends drafted in this class. The passing game is also Knox’s strength, however, so the two don’t necessarily complement each other well.
O’Cyrus Torrence (second round) is expected to win the starting job at right guard, where he spent the past three seasons at Florida and Louisiana. Given the Bills’ pass-heavy offense, expectations for Torrence’s rookie production should be limited. He offers more value in the power run game, but the Bills handed the ball off to running backs on just 28% of plays, the league’s second-lowest rate.
Torrence will be joined on the offensive line by Nick Broeker (seventh round), though Broeker has an uphill battle to earn a roster spot. Buffalo had nine offensive linemen under contract through the 2024 season before the draft.
Dorian Williams (third round) will compete with last year’s third-round pick Terrell Bernard for the job vacated by Tremaine Edmunds. Coverage skills are Williams’s strength, which gives him a good chance to win the job.
Justin Shorter (fifth round) was one of the few big-body receivers in this class (6-foot-4, 229 pounds), but he consistently fell short of expectations in college. Over the past two seasons, Shorter’s route-adjusted catch rate was just 0.9% above expected, and his yards after the catch were 63% below expected.
Buffalo will try to salvage something from the raw traits that made him the No. 1 wide receiver in the 2018 recruiting class, but expectations should be low. Three different coaching staffs (one at Penn State, two at Florida) already failed in their attempts.
Alex Austin (seventh round) is an interesting developmental prospect for the Bills. He showed steady development during his career at Oregon State and generated a route-adjusted ball-hawk rate 11% above expected last year 一 a trait that Buffalo tends to value.
This was an unexpected draft haul for Buffalo due to the addition of Kincaid at a position that did not appear to be a significant need and their lack of overall depth added to the roster.
The cap space is getting tight and will only get tighter due to the rising cost of Josh Allen. It would have been nice to see the team add more cheap rookie contracts to the depth chart, especially if adding a high-impact rookie with that first-round selection was not a priority.