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I don’t know what the Bills are aiming to do most of the game.
In other words, I don’t know what they’re trying to be on offense with this passing game.
Want to hear some shocking numbers?
On the season, the Bills throw between the numbers at the #6 lowest rate.
Only 37% of passes are between the numbers.
Instead, they attack outside the numbers at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
They also attack deep at the #2 highest rate in the NFL
Only the Packers are throwing 15+ yards downfield more often than the Bills.
In 2024, the Bills are throwing deep and outside the numbers at HIGHER RATES than they did in the heyday of Brian Daboll’s 2020 and 2021 seasons.
The difference is they don’t have the players to win on those routes.
In 2020 and 2021, it was Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis with a dash of Emmanuel Sanders and John Brown mixed in.
And in case you forget, those last two players were EXTREMELY GOOD catching the ball on those routes.
But this year?
Josh Allen is trying to throw the ball deep along the sideline to Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Curtis Samuel.
Are we serious?
How are we going deep and to the sideline at this kind of rate?
Especially when you consider the result of these passes.
Passes Outside the Numbers in 2024:
- 88 passes
- 41% success (#25)
- 58% completion (#32)
- 7.6 YPA (#14)
- 0.38 EPA/att (#7)
- 35% pressure rate (#31)
- 2.9 sec to throw (#30 fastest)
Passes Between the Numbers in 2024:
- 49 att
- 55% success (#10)
- 80% comp (#6)
- 8.5 YPA (#10)
- 0.48 EPA/att (#3)
- 18% pressure rate (#13)
- 2.3 sec to throw (#9 fastest)
Passes 10+ yards Downfield, Outside the Numbers:
- 32 att
- 31% success (#32)
- 31% completion rate (#31)
- 8.4 YPA (#27)
- 0.36 EPA/att (#15)
This approach is exactly what we saw late against the Texans in a series that ultimately cost Buffalo the game.
With the game tied, 32 seconds left on the clock, and the offense backed up to their own three-yard line, the Bills could have identified one of three goals.
Goal 1: Gain 55 yards in 20 seconds with no timeouts to kick a field goal.
Unrealistic – trash this goal – very unlikely and too risky.
Goal 2: Gain a single first down so you don’t have to punt it back.
Very reasonable, what else have you got?
Goal 3: Gain a couple of yards so you make it easier to punt the ball because field position is everything given a field goal will beat you.
Worse than Goal 2, but the second-best option.
Instead of the more reasonable approaches, the Bills went with Goal 1, attempting three deep passes to Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel with all of them falling incomplete.
Those passes took a combined 16 seconds off the clock and forced a punt from deep in the end zone.
The Texans got a decent return, five yards on a run, and kicked the game-winning field goal.
Houston did still have three timeouts, so the result might have been the same even if they attempted to gain a few yards before the punt, and they could have lost in overtime even if they got it there.
Still, it is tough to argue the Bills made the right decision late against the Texans.