In 2018, the Chicago Bears hired former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to be the team’s new head coach. The season turned into a success with a 12-4 record and NFC North win. But that success was driven almost exclusively by a dominant defense. With the acquisition of Khalil Mack just before the season, the Bears finished 2018 as the No. 1 ranked defense by just about any imaginable measure.
Meanwhile, the offense was statistically underwhelming, a unit that ranked 20th by DVOA. The offense was about league average in yards per drive (16th, between the vaunted offenses of the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants). They were able to score at a higher rate (11th in points per drive), but that was aided by good starting field position (sixth-best average start) mostly due to the defense (turnovers and punts) because the Bears ranked last in average starting field position after kickoffs.
We’ve discussed how the Bears are unlikely to repeat as dominant a performance as they had on defense last season. This would be true if they didn’t also lose defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Still, the Bears have the talent to be one of the best defenses in the league in 2019.
If the Bears are going to repeat the overall performance from last season, the defensive regression won’t be a bigger issue. Teams can compete with a top-10 defense, but they can’t do that if the offense is still average or below. How the offense progresses (or doesn’t) will be the key to how 2019 plays out in Chicago — more than defensive performance and more than the endless search for a kicker. So where exactly can this offense improve?
Intermediate Passing
Much of the offense is going to fall on the continued development of Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky’s 2018 was a mixed bag depending on the way it was viewed. He was only 20th in DVOA and 19th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A). But he was also 12th in Expected Points Added per attempt, per Sports Info Solutions, and third in ESPN’s QBR.
But however Trubisky’s season is viewed, there is one clear area he needs to improve going forward — intermediate throws. Last season 32 quarterbacks had at least 50 passing attempts that traveled 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage outside the red zone, per SIS. Trubisky’s on-target rate (defined as “catchable” by SIS) was better than only two other quarterbacks — Alex Smith and Josh Rosen.
Six of Trubisky’s 12 interceptions came on throws to that area despite those passes making up just 17.2% of his total season attempts. Trubisky’s 8.0% interception rate in that area was the highest of the 32 qualified quarterbacks last season.
His tendency on those throws was to miss high, which made for some fairly catchable balls… for defenders. He missed tight end Trey Burton here in Week 9 against the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s another high miss against the Los Angeles Rams on a target intended for Taylor Gabriel.
What’s troubling about those two throws is how little pressure was involved. A number of studies have shown quarterback performance from a clean pocket is more predictive than what happens under pressure and the inconsistency without pressure here should be cause for concern. Six of Trubisky’s eight interceptions to this depth of the field came from a clean pocket.
By eliminating throws under pressure, Trubisky’s interception rate rose to 12.0%, still the worst among qualified quarterbacks. His on-target rate on those throws was just 62%, which was easily the worst among quarterbacks. The next worst on-target rate on throws 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage without pressure was Aaron Rodgers’s 70.0%.
Man On The Run
Let’s go back to Trubisky’s QBR rank — third among all quarterbacks. It might be hard to imagine the same player who so wildly missed the throws just shown above also ended the season as the third most valuable player at the position.
To understand Trubisky’s QBR rank is to also understand the QBR formula, which factors in quarterback rushing value and that’s a place where Trubisky shined. Only Josh Allen had more rushing value for quarterbacks than Trubisky last season, per QBR.
Most of those runs for Trubisky came on scrambles. Scrambles can be good when a quarterback is able to pull them off and chooses his spots wisely, but they aren’t as effective as designed quarterback runs. Designed quarterback runs are easily that most valuable rushing attempts, but the Bears didn’t call Trubisky numbers on those often in 2018 — SIS charted Trubisky with just 11 designed QB runs out of 68 total rushing attempts.
If the Bears want to take more advantage of Trubisky’s legs, calling a few more designed quarterback runs could be an easy way to gain a little more value.
Chicago can also use that mobility on passing plays. Last season Trubisky was one of the more effective quarterbacks in the league on bootleg passes. Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 10 such attempts, Trubisky ranked ninth in EPA per attempt. The Bears used this often enough — his 37 attempts ranked 11th — but there is a clear top-tier of teams and quarterbacks who made sure to use this strategy as often as possible.
One place the Bears could use this more is in the open field. Trubisky had 23 bootleg attempts outside the red zone and he was on-target for 82.6% of those attempts, which was sixth-best among quarterbacks. Bootlegs are a way to help quarterbacks out by cutting the field in half and reducing the number of reads. That can sometimes be as much of a negative as a positive — for example, Baker Mayfield averaged minus-0.48 on 12 bootleg attempts in 2018 — but it was a boost for Trubisky. Getting him on the run helped his accuracy and his production. There is room to increase that usage in 2019.
Run Blocking
Not all of Chicago’s offensive troubles came through the air. The Bears also struggled to run the ball. That mattered because on early downs in the first half, the Bears had the seventh-highest run rate in the league.
Part of this can be put on the offensive line, which struggled run blocking. This was a team that excelled in pass blocking — seventh in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate with two players (James Daniels and Cody Whitehair) in the top-10 of their individual positions — but didn’t hold up as well on the ground.
Per Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards, the Bears ranked just 28th and they were 22nd in stuffed percentage. It certainly didn’t help that they were blocking for a plodder in Jordan Howard and the team ranked 31st in second-level yards and 26th in open field yards, which are controlled by the running back.
There were changes made in an attempt to help this. The running back depth chart was upgraded with Mike Davis and rookie third-round pick David Montgomery to go along with Tarik Cohen.
Chicago will bring back all five offensive line starters from last season, but with a big change in the middle. Daniels and Whitehair were mentioned as top-10 players in Pass Block Win Rate, but both were playing out of intended position in 2018. This year they will switch with Daniels slotting in at center and the newly extended Whitehair will move from center to guard. The hope is the pass block success will stay and the run blocking will improve with both players at their more natural positions.
One other thing the Bears can do is not run so often on early downs. Matt Nagy’s mentor Andy Reid had the Kansas City Chiefs as one of the most pass-heavy offenses (second) in the league on early downs in the first half last season. Doug Pederson, Kansas City’s offensive coordinator before Nagy, had the Philadelphia Eagles as the fifth-most pass-heavy offense in those situations. Nagy and the Bears would be better served to follow in those footsteps with more passing early in the game.
