Warren Sharp breaks down just how bad the Cleveland Browns have been against the Baltimore Ravens ahead of their Saturday matchup.
the Kevin Stefanski-led Browns are:
11-20 ATS at home (#2 worst in NFL)
3-8 ATS vs AFC North
1-4 outright/ATS vs Baltimore
this is also a terrible matchup for the Browns
they want to run but can't & I have low confidence in Deshaun Watson…my preview for @SportsGrid/@BetMGM pic.twitter.com/PcTm44hFMG
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 16, 2022
Cleveland Browns ATS Under Kevin Stefanksi:
Since Kevin Stefanksi became the head coach, the Cleveland Browns have been terrible to bet on against the spread:
- 11-20 ATS at home (#2 worst in NFL)
- 3-8 ATS vs AFC North
- 1-4 outright/ATS vs Baltimore Ravens
This does not bode well for the Browns matchup with the Ravens on Saturday.
Browns Run Defense Has Been Historically Bad
The Cleveland Browns run defense ranks No. 32 in EPA/rush and No. 31 in yards before contact per RB rush.
Even worse, no NFL run defense has allowed more EPA/rush since at least 2000.
Defensive Running Back Rush Efficiency (every team since 2017):
Browns Run Game Since Losing Center Ethan Pocic
The difference in the Browns run game since losing starting Center Ethan Pocic cannot be understated:
- Pocic was PFF's #2 best run blocking Center
- Browns now they face Baltimore's run Defense which ranks #6 on the year (#3 since Week 8)
- Ravens now allowing an NFL-low 2.8 YPC since these teams met in Week 7
Browns vs Ravens: Penalties & Referee Assignment Impact
Through 14 weeks, the Browns are the most penalized team in the NFL for offensive holding.
By contrast, the Ravens are one of the least penalized teams in this key category.
Referee Brad Allen, who is officiating this game, is among the NFL leaders in calling offensive holding penalties in 2022.
- Since 2016, divisional games with Brad Allen are 25-13 to the Under (66%), including a 2-1 under record in 2022.
- The Ravens have an excellent record with Brad Allen officiating. In 10 games Baltimore is 8-2 with Allen. In those 10 games, the Ravens are 7-3 ATS.
- More importantly, in five of those games, the Ravens were underdogs and have a 5-0 ATS record, including 4-0 ATS as road dogs.
Read More about Referee Brad Allen's impact on the Browns vs Ravens game.