With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Washington Commanders, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Washington Commanders rookies?
- Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State | Round 1, Pick 16
- Jartavius Martin, CB, Illinois | Round 2, Pick 47
- Ricky Stromberg, C, Arkansas | Round 3, Pick 97
- Braeden Daniels, OG, Utah | Round 4, Pick 118
- KJ Henry, EDGE, Clemson | Round 5, Pick 137
- Chris Rodriguez Jr, RB, Kentucky | Round 6, Pick 193
- Andre Jones Jr, EDGE, Louisiana | Round 7, Pick 233
Washington Commanders Draft Class Grade:
The Commanders received a B rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN, and a C from NFL Network.
Which Commanders Rookies Will Make An Impact?
This draft class may ultimately be judged based on the comparison of Emmanuel Forbes (first round) to Christian Gonzalez, who was surprisingly passed over before being selected by the Patriots. Forbes has demonstrated exceptional on-ball production, especially on shorter routes, while Gonzalez is at his best defending man coverage down the field.
Based on route-adjusted metrics, Forbes generated a ball-hawk rate 49.8% above expected when defending the most common NFL routes (curl, dig, drag, flat, out, slant) over the last two seasons 一 dramatically more impressive than Gonzalez’s -8.9% mark.
Jack Del Rio’s defense played zone on 68.6% of coverage snaps last year and used two-high safety coverages at a 44% rate. Based on those trends, it's easy to understand why this coaching staff would prefer Forbes over Gonazlez.
That said, how much longer will Del Rio and Ron Rivera be in Washington? With new ownership coming in and no plan at quarterback, they have very little job security. Scheme-specific draft selections are risky when there’s a lack of stability within the organization.
Considering the Forbes versus Gonzalez decision in the first round, the selection of Quan Martin (second round) was mildly surprising. No one played more man coverage than Illinois in 2022 (65.5% of snaps).
Martin played all over the Illinois secondary throughout his career, but he saw significant action in the slot in 2022. Washington lost Bobby McCain this offseason, so Martin will have an opportunity for immediate playing time in that role.
Ricky Stromberg (third round) could compete with Nick Gates and Tyler Larsen for the starting job at center but is probably more of a developmental project. Although he was a three-year starter at center, Arkansas uses an Air Raid offense which doesn’t put much stress on the offensive line in pass protection. As a result, it’s clear Stromberg is more polished in the run game at this stage of his development.
To put the scheme adjustment into perspective, Arkansas quarterbacks took a traditional dropback (three or more steps) on 33% of their pass plays last year. That rate was 63% for Commanders quarterbacks last year.
The selection of Braeden Daniels was all about depth. He made double-digit starts at left guard, right tackle, and guard during his career at Utah. That versatility will buy him time to develop in a reserve role and potentially compete for a starting job down the road.
K.J. Henry (fifth round) and Andre Jones (seven round) both add some pass-rush depth. While that depth isn’t needed right now, the team has six edge rushers in the final year of their contracts. Both Henry and Jones are already 24 years old, and Jones turns 25 in October.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (sixth round) was an interesting selection due to the overlapping skill set with Brian Robinson Jr. Rivera’s comments after the draft implied new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was heavily involved in this selection. Like Robinson, Rodriguez is a one-cut runner who excels at avoiding negative plays.
As a rookie last year, Robinson was stopped for zero or negative yards at the fourth-lowest rate in the league when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage (31.9%). Rodriguez’s 39.5% rate ranked 17th among Power Five ball carriers. If Bieniemy was pushing for Rodriguez, it’s possible he could cut into Robinson’s workload.
Washington clearly upgraded the secondary with this draft class, but it is unclear if any other area of the roster was affected in a meaningful way. Rodriguez could push for playing time based on Bieniemy’s interest, but there’s not much upside to a pure downhill runner in today’s game.
It feels like Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew were drafting for need and scheme in an effort to save their jobs 一 which may be a futile effort with new ownership coming in.