Deshaun Watson's first season back for the Cleveland Browns was rough.
Over his six starts last season, he averaged:
- 183.7 passing yards,
- 1.2 passing touchdowns,
- and 0.8 interceptions per game.
For his career prior to last season, he averaged:
- 269.2 passing yards,
- 1.9 passing touchdowns,,
- and 0.7 interceptions per game.
Over those six games, Watson was 24th among quarterbacks in EPA per play and over three percent under his expected completion rate.
As Warren Sharp notes on twitter, however, he was especially bad down the field.
Deshaun Watson's longest pass attempts from 2022 in order: part 1 (longest first) pic.twitter.com/LLs3v0gYXB
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 2, 2023
“Out of all 651 QBs w 150+ attempts in a season since 2005, the only QB with a season worse than Deshaun Watson's when throwing over 20 yds downfield was Mike Glennon.”
Not great, Bob.
There is a silver lining, however.
Will Deshaun Watson Get Better This Year?
Watson was much better throwing down the field in Houston. He averaged 1.09 EPA per attempt on downfield throws in his last full season with the Texans (2020) compared to -1.25 EPA per attempt last season.
three incredibly high variance Deshaun Watson 2022 stats which should regress in 2023:
1. NFL-worst performance on passes over 20+ yards (-1.25 EPA/att)
2. NFL-worst 8% completion rate on passes thrown into the end zone
3. 2nd-worst completion rate on third downs (49%)
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 2, 2023
If the Browns are going to find success this season, they need Watson to play much better than he did a year ago, especially down the field.
Cleveland Browns Strength of Schedule:
The Browns are ranked #16 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 16th-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
Browns Win Total: What's the Smarter Bet?
The Browns are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Browns Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Browns finished 2-6 in one-score games, a record that will likely regress closer to average. They had -4.6 net fumbles over expectation, the second-worst fumble luck in the league. They also sported the seventh-worst field goal luck.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Browns Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The first five games of the schedule are very difficult. The Browns play each division rival and the 49ers with a game against the Titans mixed in.
Four of the five games are against teams projected to finish with a winning record, and the Browns have the second-most difficult opening six weeks. The early bye week is not ideal either as the Browns have a Week 5 bye.
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Preview:
- Deshaun Watson had a completion rate 3.9 percent under expected in his six starts last season, was 1.6 yards under his career air yards per attempt average, and was 2.4 yards under his career average in adjusted yards per attempt.
- Amari Cooper was 15th among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.07) and 11th in target share (26%) last season. He finished as the WR17 in fantasy points per game.
- Nick Chubb has now gained at least five yards per carry every season of his career. He was fifth among qualifying running backs in EPA per rush despite ranking 14th in the rate of his runs against heavy boxes.
» Continue reading our Browns Fantasy Football Preview