With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Miami Dolphins, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Miami Dolphins rookies?
- Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina | Round 2, Pick 51
- Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M | Round 3, Pick 84
- Elijah Higgins, TE, Stanford | Round 6, Pick 197
- Ryan Hayes, OT, Michigan | Round 7, Pick 238
Miami Dolphins Draft Class Grade:
The Dolphins received a B- rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN, and a C- from NFL Network.
Which Dolphins Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick for violating league tampering rules with Tom Brady and Sean Payton and then traded most of the rest of their picks in deals for Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, and Jeff Wilson.
Cam Smith (second round) was likely a best-available decision because there’s no path to playing time behind Ramsey and Xavien Howard.
Smith’s on-ball production at South Carolina was elite, generating a route-adjusted ball-hawk rate 38% above expected over the last two seasons.
Ramsey and Howard are both under contract for a number of years, but if Smith’s development goes well, perhaps one of the more expensive veterans will become expendable in a cap-saving move.
Devon Achane (third round) is an extreme outlier as a sub-190-pound running back. The hit rate on backs under 200 pounds, let alone under 190, is extremely poor.
When Achane ran into a box with seven or more defenders last season, he was stuffed for zero or negative yards at a 22% rate, which ranked 53rd among Power Five running backs. Due to the lack of power in his game, he is a long shot to ever earn a starting job.
Miami will likely use Achane as an all-purpose weapon, trying to get him the ball in space a handful of times per game in an effort to take advantage of his game-changing speed.
He could also challenge Braxton Berrios for the kick returner job.
At 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, Elijah Higgins (fifth round) will make the transition from receiver to tight end, but it is a surprising selection given the degree to which Mike McDaniel values blocking from his tight ends.
There’s little chance Higgins develops his blocking fast enough to earn playing time as a rookie, so expect to see him almost exclusively on special teams.
In the long term, however, Higgins could be a good fit for the offense. He was surprisingly productive after the catch for his size, generating 4.2% more yards after the catch than expected over the last two seasons based on route-adjusted data.
Ryan Hayes (seventh round) exclusively played left tackle at Michigan and will compete for the swing tackle job as a rookie. He may lack the functional strength to play guard, so he probably needs to win that job to earn a spot on the roster.
It’s tough to evaluate such a small class, but the Dolphins got good value in Smith, an interesting offensive weapon in Achane, and a nice developmental prospect in Higgins. There’s reason to be optimistic this draft wasn’t a total wash.
