Judging NFL draft classes in the moment can be a fool's errand. Some players will overperform expectations. Some will underperform. Others still will come out of nowhere to be one of the best picks of the draft.
Still, there are some interesting ways to look at how teams performed in the 2023 NFL Draft.
One of those is a “wisdom of crowds” approach that compares the expected draft position of every player based on a composite big board from several sources to where those players were actually drafted.
For instance, the composite big board this year expected Jahmyr Gibbs to be drafted 31st overall. The Lions selected him 12th, creating a draft capital over expected of 6.97 — higher numbers are worse.
On the other side, Tyree Wilson was third on the composite big board, but the Raiders were able to draft him at 7th overall. That created a draft capital over expected of -6.19 — lower numbers are better.
After analyzing every pick, which teams had the most and least draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft?
Which NFL team had the most draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft?
The Pittsburgh Steelers had the most draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
the Steelers had one of the NFL's bet drafts based on value
CB Cory Trice (rd 7) was the 10th best value of the entire draft
4 of their first 6 picks delivered substantial value over expectation
they only selected one player substantially higher than expected (Keeanu Benton)… pic.twitter.com/2NoOifZH49
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 29, 2023
NFL teams with the most draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft:
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Cleveland Browns
- Denver Broncos
- Miami Dolphins
Which NFL team had the least draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft?
The Detroit Lions had the least draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
the Detroit Lions reached for their guys when compared to the consensus boards
their selections of Brian Branch and Hendon Hooker provided the most value, but they drafted 6 of 8 players (much) earlier than expected
overall, a bottom-5 draft using the DCOE metric pic.twitter.com/NPtuEicqjm
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 30, 2023
NFL teams with the least draft capital over expected in the 2023 NFL Draft:
- Detroit Lions
- Kansas City Chiefs
- San Francisco 49ers
- Washington Commanders
- New England Patriots
2023 NFL Draft Capital Over Expected:
*Note: Lower draft capital over expected is better.
| Rank | Team | DCOE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steelers | -3.6 |
| 2 | Eagles | -2.8 |
| 3 | Browns | -2.3 |
| 4 | Broncos | -1.7 |
| 5 | Dolphins | -1.4 |
| 6 | Giants | -1.1 |
| 7 | Ravens | -1.0 |
| 8 | Titans | -0.9 |
| 9 | Bills | -0.6 |
| 10 | Colts | -0.5 |
| 11 | Bengals | -0.4 |
| 12 | Raiders | 0.2 |
| 13 | Bears | 0.2 |
| 14 | Vikings | 0.3 |
| 15 | Texans | 0.4 |
| 16 | Rams | 0.4 |
| 17 | Seahawks | 0.6 |
| 18 | Saints | 0.7 |
| 19 | Falcons | 0.7 |
| 20 | Buccaneers | 0.8 |
| 21 | Packers | 0.8 |
| 22 | Cardinals | 0.9 |
| 23 | Jaguars | 1.1 |
| 24 | Jets | 1.4 |
| 25 | Panthers | 1.5 |
| 26 | Chargers | 1.5 |
| 27 | Cowboys | 1.8 |
| 28 | Patriots | 1.8 |
| 29 | Commanders | 1.9 |
| 30 | 49ers | 2.2 |
| 31 | Chiefs | 2.4 |
| 32 | Lions | 2.7 |
2023 Draft Capital Infographics:
