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Reading the Eagles expose that took the internet by storm last week, my attention was drawn to the portion that discussed the inception of the rift between head coach Nick Sirianni and QB Jalen Hurts.
Following Philly's Super Bowl run at the end of the 2022 season, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen left to coach the Indianapolis Colts. He was replaced by quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson, whose relationship with Hurts dates back more than two decades. Hurts' father, Averion, was a coach at Robert E. Lee High School in Baytown, Texas, in the early 2000s when Johnson played there.
On the surface, it seemed Johnson's promotion would be seamless. But it quickly became apparent Johnson and Hurts were on a different page than Sirianni, who wanted to keep his scheme largely the same under the premise of “if it ain't broke, don't fix it.” Hurts, now a bona fide franchise quarterback, was looking for greater authority over the offense, according to two sources close to him. He and Johnson wanted the system to evolve and become more layered, team sources said.
“When Brian got [promoted], I think he thought, ‘I could do the thing that I've wanted to do,'” a team source said. “That didn't fly as much with Nick.”
The article went on to discuss how Sirianni held one-on-one meetings with Hurts. It detailed one play on a Week 4 third down where Sirianni said he wanted a run play called instead of what OC Johnson had dialed up (a pass play). And there were many other anecdotes which explained their disfunction.
But my focus was on the offense because I was selling what had become the Eagles offense after seeing it in action Week 1.
Many people read this article and felt it was a bad sign for what lies ahead for the Eagles in 2024 because their coach and quarterback are disjointed.
But I viewed it as explaining what I saw and felt watching the team last year, and it actually gave me hope for 2024 because a new offensive coordinator would be calling plays in 2024.
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The Eagles 2022 season was 10-1 through Week 12.
And the Eagles 2023 season was 10-1 through Week 12.
It was the same record but massively different teams, and the final results showed.
The 2022 Eagles skated down the stretch in all those games, pulling starters and letting the foot off the gas in the second half because they led by incredible margins.
But the 2023 Eagles led at halftime in just six of their first 12 games.
On average, the Eagles were losing by 1.0 points at halftime.
The 2022 Eagles were the exact opposite.
Through the same span in 2022, the Eagles trailed in just two games and led by an average of 7.8 points at halftime, the #1 highest margin in the NFL.
In 2023, with Steichen in Indianapolis, Johnson wasn’t running nearly as smooth a ship.
Whether plays were coming in too slowly with a new OC or the team was not emphasizing speed on offense, there was a general lethargy offensively to start games which felt like it permeated every phase of the offense.
There was very little urgency offensively early in games. Huddles were slow, breaking the huddle was slow, dropbacks were slow, and the time before the ball was released on pass plays was slow.
The general vibe was “we’re ok” as opposed to a certain level of stress that should have been present coupled with a resolve to jump out to a lead quickly.
Let’s first examine how games started and contrast 2022 to 2023, focusing on first down passes in the first half of games.
- 2022: 9.5 air yards/att, 2.67 seconds time-to-throw, 30% of att holding the ball for 3+ seconds, 30% pressure rate, 17% of att thrown at/behind the line of scrimmage
- 2023: 7.5 air yards/att, 3.04 seconds time-to-throw, 39% of att holding the ball for 3+ seconds, 39% pressure rate, 25% of att thrown at/behind line of scrimmage
The differences, as did the problems such numbers presented, leapt off the page.
The 2023 offense threw the ball substantially SHORTER despite holding onto the ball LONGER and received QB pressure MORE OFTEN.
That combination shouldn’t have existed.
If you were passing shorter, you shouldn’t have held the ball as long.
If you were passing shorter, you shouldn’t have gotten pressured as often.
And yet that was the Eagles' first down passing offense in 2023.
Second downs were similar, but the problem was most glaring on first down.
And because first down pass efficiency was such a staple of success for the 2022 Eagles, the massive drop in efficiency crippled the first half offense in 2023.
Next, let’s look at target depth.
Deep passes were terrible last year compared to 2022:
- 2022: +0.44 EPA/att, 38% success, 14.9 YPA
- 2023: +0.06 EPA/att, 18% success, 8.3 YPA
But while those numbers weren’t good, they were better than passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
And the Eagles threw far more passes in 2023 behind the line of scrimmage than they had in 2022 with MUCH WORSE results:
- 2022: 20% of passes behind the line of scrimmage, +0.13 EPA/att, 52% success, 6.4 YPA
- 2023: 28% of passes behind the line of scrimmage, -0.12 EPA/att, 38% success, 5.3 YPA
And then there was Jalen Hurts' indecision and/or propensity to hold onto the ball last season.
Hurts took substantially longer to throw the ball in 2023.
His average time to throw on early downs in the first half was 2.95 seconds in 2023. It was 2.63 seconds in 2022.
As Hurts held onto the ball from 2.5 to 3.5 seconds, he should have had the time to push the ball beyond the sticks to attack the mid-range area of the defense.
But he did not.
In 2023, his air yards per attempt when holding the ball for 2.5 to 3.5 seconds was just under 7.5 air yards.
That was HALF the air yardage from 2022 (15.0 air yards) on similar durations behind center.
In 2023, only 28% of his passes traveled beyond the sticks when holding the ball for between 2.5 to 3.5 seconds.
That was 30% LESS than the rate from 2022 (58%) on similar durations behind center.
In 2023, the Eagles did not make the time spent behind center count toward a more productive passing attack.
As a result of not throwing it deep enough despite holding the ball for the same time, fewer passes in that 2 to 4 second time frame generated chunk yardage compared to 2022.
Now let’s examine Hurts passing between the numbers.
The Eagles generated very little success throwing the ball between the numbers in 2023.
Even if you eliminate inefficient passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, look at the comparison by year when Hurts threw between the numbers and beyond the line of scrimmage:
- 2022: +0.66 EPA/att, 78% success, 11.8 YPA (10.2 air yards/att, 77% comp)
- 2023: +0.02 EPA/att, 50% success, 8.1 YPA (9.5 air yards/att, 75% comp)
If the Eagles had focused on targeting WRs over the middle of the field, they would have had far better success.
Look at the splits on these passes between the numbers based on target position in 2023:
- WR targets: +0.46 EPA/att, 66% success, 10.0 YPA (12.1 air yards/att, 79% comp, 29 att)
- RB/TE targets: -0.83 EPA/att, 20% success, 4.5 YPA (4.4 air yards/att, 67% comp, 15 att)
The Eagles' efficiency on these RB/TE targets was massively worse in 2023 than it was in 2022.
Lastly, there was the pace of play which jumped off the page as being massively different in 2023.
In 2022, the Eagles averaged just 25.9 seconds per play in the first half of games.
That ranked as the #1 fastest paced first half offense in the NFL.
Last year, the Eagles averaged 29.7 seconds per play in the first half of games.
That ranked #25 in tempo.
The significantly slower first half tempo fed into what felt like a general malaise and complacency of the offense when watching the Eagles on the field to start games.
Was this part of what was bothering Sirianni during the season?
This was SUCH a different looking offense to what existed in 2022 when you turn over the stones, and it wasn’t different in a good way.
This isn’t me just reading last week’s ESPN article and backing into stats that comport with the story.
I wrote all of the above analysis in my 2024 Football Preview, which was published in early July.
But this was something I was rattling the cages about even earlier than that.
I wrote about these issues during the season. The Eagles, at 10-1, were highly successful and winning games. At that point, they may have thought they were on the way to another Super Bowl.
In early December, I wrote something that turned out to be prophetic:
“It’s easy to overlook issues and not address them when the final results are positive. The Eagles might feel like there is no need to shake up the offense or improve anything, as what they’ve done has led them to success.
But we know final W-L records can be extremely deceiving. A good team will constantly look for ways to improve, even after a win. And that’s what the Eagles must do because they are not close to being the same offense they were in 2022.”
I saw the problems before they were made public. I analyzed the offense and understood the issues.
Seeing the INTENT of the 2023 offense had me shorting the Eagles in the futures marketing during the 2023 season.
Seeing the change in offensive coordinators back to Kellen Moore has me buying into Eagles futures for the 2024 season.
But this assumes that we’ll get a vision of the Eagles which is more similar to the 2022 unit. The offensive roster isn’t much different, save for a few small changes.
Johnson and Hurts were on the same page, but that page was to operate the offense like Hurts operates himself off the field, particularly in press conferences: calmly, cooly, and with a great deal of thoughtful restraint.
That style of offense won’t jump out to leads like the 2022 Eagles did en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
Moore and Hurts must be on the same page in 2024, and that page must be to operate the offense with aggression and a laser-focused intent to jump out to fast leads and overwhelm the opponent quickly.
We shouldn’t be shocked that Sirianni wasn’t happy with the offense which was trailing by an average of 1.0 points at halftime through 12 weeks, despite eventually winning those games and sitting 10-1.
Because the prior 2022 edition led by nearly 8.0 points at halftime and could play with their food all second half, as opposed to pushing the pedal to the metal all 60 minutes trying to scratch out late wins.
Regardless of whether the Eagles end up 10-1 through 12 weeks for a third straight year, an offense that is run more similarly to that 2022 squad will keep Sirianni happy and at bay, thus giving Hurts the control he desires.
Large halftime leads will make everyone in Philadelphia happy, including the two most important members of the Eagles: Sirianni and Hurts.
The ingredients have been bought. The recipe is on the counter. The chefs simply must prepare the meal expeditiously without overlooking any key details and the Eagles will be looking at a deep run into the 2024 postseason.
