With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Atlanta Falcons, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Atlanta Falcons rookies?
- Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas | Round 1, Pick 8
- Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse | Round 2, Pick 38
- Zach Harrison, EDGE, Ohio State | Round 3, Pick 75
- Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah | Round 4, Pick 113
- DeMarcco Hellams, S, Alabama | Round 7, Pick 224
- Jovaughn Gwyn, G, South Carolina | Round 7, Pick 225
Atlanta Falcons Draft Class Grade:
The Falcons received a B+ rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B- from ESPN, and a B from NFL Network.
Which Falcons Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Falcons made one of the most confusing selections of the draft by adding Bijan Robinson (first round) to an already productive backfield. Robinson is a supremely talented prospect who will immediately supplant Tyler Allgeier as the starting running back, but the upgrade may not be substantial.
Allgeier was productive last season, generating at least five yards on 41% of his carries, the league’s fourth-highest rate. If he had a weakness, it was his lack of explosive plays. He ranked 24th in his rate of gaining 10 or more yards. Robinson, however, is a similar physical runner without elite breakaway speed. In 2022, Robinson generated 10 or more yards on 16% of his carries, which ranked fifth out of 13 qualified running backs in the Big 12.
The Falcons have also talked up Robinson’s pass game production, but it remains to be seen how much action he gets there. Falcons running backs ranked 25th in target share last year despite having a talented weapon available in Cordarrelle Patterson. During Arthur Smith’s two years as coordinator in Tennessee, Titans running backs ranked 31st in target share each season.
Matthew Bergeron (second round) primarily lined up at left tackle at Syracuse, but his skill set is well suited for a shift to inside. He could earn the starting job at left guard. Bergeron was inconsistent in pass protection but was a key reason why new Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker put up big numbers in the run game in recent years for the Orange. Following the selection of Robinson with Bergeron seems to indicate the Falcons plan to lean even more into the run game as their identity on offense.
Zach Harrison (third round) is a former five-star recruit who has as much untapped potential as any pass rusher in this class. Harrison posted a respectable 12.5% pressure rate on the edge last season, which ranked 13th in the Big Ten, but given his tools and the surrounding talent at Ohio State, it was a disappointing performance.
New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is the former defensive line coach in New Orleans and helped develop Marcus Davenport, Trey Hendrickson, and others, so Harrison landed in a good spot. That said, it’s certainly a red flag that Harrison wasn’t more productive for legendary defensive line coach Larry Johnson at Ohio State.
Clark Phillips III (fourth round) is an undersized corner, who will probably be limited to a role in the slot. He spent more time in the slot in 2022, which led to a breakout season. Phillips has always had strong on-ball production, but his route-adjusted ball-hawk rate jumped from 22% above expected in 2021 to 74% above expected in his final season at Utah.
DeMarcco Hellams (seventh round) primarily played a free safety role at Alabama but lacks the ideal range for that role in the NFL. He hasn’t seen much special teams action since early in his career at Alabama and will need to carve out a role there to earn a roster spot.
Jovaughn Gwyn (seventh round) was a four-year starter at guard at South Carolina. He’ll likely get reps at center in training camp and will need to prove he has position versatility to earn a job.
General manager Terry Fontenot is now three drafts into his tenure in Atlanta, and the seat is starting to get warm. He invited increased scrutiny with this draft class.
The need to avoid running backs in the first round is overstated, but it requires the right timing in terms of the team-building process and, ideally, a late first-round pick. Yet Fontenot spent a top-10 pick on a running back while he’s still rebuilding a struggling defense and searching for his quarterback of the future.
Beyond the selection of Robinson, it was also a questionable choice to leave this draft with six prospects given the state of the roster.