With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the New York Jets, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the New York Jets rookies?
- Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State | Round 1, Pick 15
- Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin | Round 2, Pick 43
- Carter Warren, OT, Pitt | Round 4, Pick 120
- Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt | Round 5, Pick 143
- Zaire Barnes, LB, Western Michigan | Round 6, Pick 184
- Jarrick Bernard-Converse, CB, LSU | Round 6, Pick 204
- Zach Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion | Round 7, Pick 220
New York Jets Draft Class Grade:
The Jets received a B- rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN, and a C+ from NFL Network.
Which Jets Rookies Will Make An Impact?
The Jets took a huge swing with their first pick Will McDonald IV (first round). As a 23-year-old senior in 2022, McDonald ranked 16th in the Big 12 in pressure rate generated on the edge out of 26 qualified players.
McDonald occasionally lined up out of position on the interior, which limited some of his run-game production, but 87% of his pass-rush snaps occurred while lined up from the five-tech spot or wider.
The Jets primarily line up in a four-man front (87% of snaps), which may be a better scheme fit for McDonald, though concerns about his lack of pass-rush production remain.
He’ll have a year to back up Carl Lawson before Lawson hits free agency, likely ceding the job to McDonald.
Joe Tippman (second round) will compete with Connor McGovern for the starting job at center and should be the favorite to win. Tippman will need to adjust to a more zone-heavy blocking scheme.
New Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett used zone blocking on 72% of his plays in Denver last year while offensive line coach Keith Carter used a 69% rate in Tennessee. This Jets scheme will look different than what Tippman was used to at Wisconsin.
Carter Warren (fourth round) was a four-year starter at Pitt, but he’s an ordinary athlete, returning from a season-ending knee injury, and struggled with penalties in college.
Over his final two seasons at Pitt, Warren committed 13 penalties in 18 games, a concerning rate for a player with 39 career starts.
With Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell competing for the job at right tackle, it is tough to see how Warren fits in. Assuming both Becton and Mitchell remain on the roster, Warren will need to prove he has position flexibility to keep his roster spot.
Israel Abanikanda (fifth round) will compete with Michael Carter for backup duties behind Breece Hall.
Carter has not been the explosive weapon the Jets were hoping for. Only 6.1% of carries went for 10 or more yards last year, the league’s lowest rate.
Abanikanda generated at least 10 yards on 15.8% of his carries in 2022 at Pitt. Like Carter, Abanikanda tends to dance in the backfield in search of the big play and got stuffed for zero or negative yards on 17.5% of his carries.
Zaire Barnes (sixth round) is an athletic linebacker who excels in coverage and will provide some valuable depth. He has experience on every special teams unit and the athletic traits to continue to excel in those roles.
Jarrick Bernard-Converse (sixth round) had a tough year at LSU in 2022 but thrived at Oklahoma State prior to his transfer. Based on route-adjusted data,
Bernard-Converse allowed a catch rate 18% above expected in 2022, but that number was 18% below expected over the previous two seasons with the Cowboys.
His defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State, Jim Knowles, is among the best in the college game, so perhaps the right coaching can get Bernard-Converse back to that level of production.
6-foot-7 tight end Zack Kuntz (seventh round) spent three seasons buried on the depth chart at Penn State before making an impact at Old Dominion.
His deficiencies as a blocker likely hindered his ability to get on the field at Penn State, but he’s a good athlete for his size and could be developed into a weapon in the passing game.
The Jets parted with some draft assets in the Aaron Rodgers trade, but this still looks like an underwhelming class, especially considering their tight window of opportunity with Rodgers.
Tippman should win the starting job at center, but the rest of this class likely will not make much of an impact as rookies.
McDonald will be expected to step into a starting role eventually but, after trading for Rodgers, it was surprising to see Joe Douglas not use that selection on a player with a more clear path to helping them win in 2023.
